Quote:
Originally Posted by nathan
the hand with spamz, no way are we folding QT2,K95,J72 etc... only flops we hate and are folding to are 9TJ,9JK,9TQ etc etc etc, shoving pre is always going to be plus ev due to spamz reads but what gains you the most EV is what matters, if villian was going to 3bet call it off then yeah shipping pre and it shouldnt be close really. but if villian here is going to be shipping every flop when we flat and folding to a shove pre then i prefer spamz line here by a fair bit
pretty much this
You're probably not taking into account the fact that when i DO flop a pair, or a flush, or a flushdraw, or two pair, or trips, or the board comes paired like 522, or... and he openshoves, i will be very likely a 75% favorite or maybe even more when the money goes in. Idk exactly how much of the time this will happen tbh it's just too wide to do the math for this imo and don't feel like doing it if it's just to convince one guy while a lot of other players agree with me.
He's going to openshove a lot of boards imo, still convinced of that. He's also going to bet/fold at least some boards which makes it even more ev+ to not shove preflop. He's not going to check/fold a board like AKQr imo because he knows there's no way he can win the pot by checking his undercards + "maybe" gutter.
Also, this guy was pretty transparent in his bets. If he had flopped a monster (trips/straight/flush/two pair) I think there's a <10% chance he would be openshoving them depending on how vulnerable his hand is at that point. So in cases like this, I could still get away from the hand (he would probably bet something small while he would either openshove with total air or like bet/fold for 2/3 pot).
And yeah, ~9k games in less than a year is obv heater with one noticable downswing in it.