*** Let's Chat About Win Rates! *** - Page 14 - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

I honestly believe 10 BI swings should be rare. Or maybe I just play bad? Is there any use exploiting a 5-10% edge at NL50 and below? When you're bound to have other situations when you have a 70% edge?

Unfortunately, they aren't that rare. I've had a -10 BI downswing is less than 1,000 hands. -5 all on the board at the same time, quickly followed by getting stacked 5 more times.

Every play was +EV, and most were just bizzare bad beats, such as losing with Top Set 10+ times in a row, (you do win hands between these loses, so they aren't the only reason for the DS).

Quote

07-13-2010 , 11:51 AM

#327

funkyj

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 6,416

Quote:

Originally Posted by SammyG-SD

hmm, my WR is significantly higher at NL100 then NL50 over a +150K hand sample at each level.

what are the two win rates? What are the two sample sizes? What is your standard deviation / 100?

Have you been playing 50NL and 100NL concurrently or at different times (e.g. first 50NL, then moved up to 100NL the following year)?

If you played 50NL, then 100NL, do you think your game has improved much since the 50NL sample was taken?

Quote

07-13-2010 , 01:03 PM

#328

SammyG-SD

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 12,600

Quote:

Originally Posted by funkyj

I played NL50 then moved to NL100

I don't have the STD for 50 NL, but lifetime WR was 2.2ptbb/100 over 150K+ hands.

100NL is 6.1ptbb/100 over 125K+ hands with a std of 34.95/100

I can't answer the which game is harder or anything.

Quote

07-13-2010 , 01:09 PM

#329

springsteen87

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 8,998

WCGRider was known for saying NL50 was much harder for him to beat than 100 or 200 (IIRC)

Quote

07-13-2010 , 01:39 PM

#330

stranglylucid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 7,588

I have heard many many times that 100NL is easier than 50NL. 100NL has the rich fish playing, but 50NL is a wierd middle ground. Fish tend to either play 25NL (enough money that it matters, but not to much money) or 100NL (cause they want to be ballers), so 50NL tends to be full of players who have worked there way up from the micro stakes.

Quote

07-13-2010 , 01:42 PM

#331

*Split*

See my coaching listing

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 9,261

Quote:

Originally Posted by stranglylucid

i certainly dont disagree with this. but the people that struggle beating the mindless and unimaginative 50 regs are going to struggle balls at 200+ when the reg dynamic is increased and important

Quote

07-13-2010 , 01:44 PM

#332

stranglylucid

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 7,588

LOL, frankly I struggle balls with the 50NL unimaginative regs! Or, more correctly, I can't wait for the day when I struggle against unimaginative regs!

Quote

07-13-2010 , 01:46 PM

#333

SammyG-SD

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 12,600

the only reason I think I do better at 100NL, is that my ranges for the players are more accurate.

This could be because I have become a better reader of hands, or the fact that villains are more polarized at NL100 (meaning they are either competent players, knowing about value lines, or fish/spewtards) than NL50 (where people take weird lines with weird hands and you think they are polarized on a bet then show up with a middle strength hand).

or it could be blind damn luck

Quote

07-16-2010 , 03:12 AM

#334

hatfield23

banned

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 340

Played Rush this weekend four tabling 5 cent 10 cent with the rakeback they gave me for about eight hours in two days. Steadily rose up from $50 to $177 at 6 max, then slowly lost it back to about 120. Hit a one outer with dueces on a guy who had threes with another person in there who had an ace high flush. Later kept getting gutshotted and slowly went down to about $90. Is there any way to keep a consistant win rate?

Quote

07-16-2010 , 04:48 AM

#335

DDAWD

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 6,879

Quote:

Originally Posted by stranglylucid

plus, if they originally played at casinos, 100 and 200NL are the lowest fishy games. So if they can beat those, they think it will be just as easy online.

Quote

07-16-2010 , 01:18 PM

#336

*Split*

See my coaching listing

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 9,261

Quote:

Originally Posted by hatfield23

your WR won't be a steady paycheck.

Quote

07-16-2010 , 01:41 PM

#337

funkyj

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 6,416

Quote:

Originally Posted by hatfield23

Yeah, get a regular job. Variance is why bad poker players play for real money and bad chess players do not.

Quote

09-16-2010 , 05:34 PM

#338

SammyG-SD

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 12,600

bump

Quote

09-16-2010 , 05:46 PM

#339

gman339

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 3,449

Quote:

Originally Posted by SammyG-SD

or the fact that villains are more polarized at NL100 (meaning they are either competent players, knowing about value lines, or fish/spewtards) than NL50 (where people take weird lines with weird hands and you think they are polarized on a bet then show up with a middle strength hand).

I think there is some truth to this at the lower levels. I don't know how many times a villain will bet strong on the river on a super scary board and I think "this can only be a monster or air" and call only to find out they have some medium strength hand that should never be vbetting in that spot.

Quote

12-17-2010 , 02:43 PM

#340

CoogiBadugi

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 392

Ive tried to find the answer, but I cant find it, so sorry if this has been answered before:

After 50k hands at 100bb deep 10nl, Im beating the game for 5BB/100. Then I started playing deepstack CG.

Ive played 35k hands 0,05/0,10, deepstack 250bb deep on PS, and im beating it at 12BB/100. Ive been running somewhat under EV in the few allin situations, so EV would be like 16BB/100. Is this at all sustainable? I look at myself as a fairly good postflop player (which is why I moved to deepstack), so I imagine my edge will be bigger in deepstack holdem with more postflop decisions. Anyone here that have a larger samplesize?

Quote

12-17-2010 , 02:58 PM

#341

flip2win

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,944

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoogiBadugi

I think it's time for you to move up to 25 NL.

Quote

12-17-2010 , 03:00 PM

#342

Exothermic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 16,804

fpp> winrate hahahah *dead*

Quote

12-17-2010 , 03:03 PM

#343

Exothermic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 16,804

p.s coogie... 10nl fr 100bb stack poker = nitfest... the 250bb games are honestly the easiest micro stakes game, easier than 2nl to me, the people think its 250bb stack so they can play like durr and honestly they suck at it

Quote

12-17-2010 , 03:20 PM

#344

Immolate

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 690

10nl crushed my soul. I think I "beat" 5nl in 4 days and spent 3 months at 10nl before quitting poker for a year. I think my overall winrate at 10nl is probably 0.5bb/100 and I honestly don't know why.

I "beat" 25nl for 7bb/100 over 90k and moved to 50 where I'm doing slightly better.

Quote

12-17-2010 , 03:24 PM

#345

Exothermic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 16,804

im down $100 over 70k hands at 10nl and up $800 at 25nl over 90k... really bad downswing at 25nl last month for like 60k hands too so yea... you should of played the deep stack game though its real fishy

to all the 12+ tablers who have a high winrate, do you guys play normal or fast speed tables??

Quote

12-17-2010 , 03:43 PM

#346

CoogiBadugi

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 392

Stupid me, forgot to say it was 6max both 100bb and 250bb

Quote:

Originally Posted by flip2win

I think it's time for you to move up to 25 NL.

I had to withdraw a lot (dont ask). Now I have bulit my roll to 1200$. Thats only 20 buyins at 25nl deep (I wont move up unless I can comfortably buyin for the full amount). Wouldnt you think I would have to have a slightly bigger roll for it? Like 30 buyins? Also how much harder is the competition at 25nldeep compared to 10nldeep?

And is a WR at 12-15BB/100 sustainable at 10nldeep/25nldeep?