Clarification for OP: I presume that these winrates are in ptBB/100.

Yeah, sorry pt I meant

Im beating 25nl @ 6bb/100 and that will drop when im @50nl

25nl and 50nl are relatively the same. it shouldnt drop by much but gl

No. At least in Stars NL-25 and NL-50 are quit different.

One of the biggest differences I've noticed after dropping and playing 25 for a week is the amount of aggro 3b monkeys at 25 that 3b just to 3b. They are all terrible. There are countless guys that have 7% and higher 3b%'s and none of them beat the game for that much, if at all. There are various reasons as to why they don't beat the game.

I assume this is more prevalent at 25 just because these guys go bust super fast higher up because people stop folding to their 3bs so much, which makes it slightly profitable at 25 since there are so many nits???

Not exactly rocket science but just something I've found pretty humorous at 25 lately.

Im sitting at 11.3 BB/100.

I only have a sample size of 5k hands.

about Three Fiddy is normal

ur so cool brah

and you are totally awesome.

$18/hr.

Your previous thread was a 5nl hand...Is the title of this thread wrong?

thread merge by mod.

I just want to add something to this thread.




When I first started out in poker. I had zero money. Nothing.


I made a several deposits with money I won from friends at homegames(super super nano) and then lost all of that.


Had a few cents left....


turn that few cents... into 1000. IN UNDER 10 000 hands.


Sick heat if you ask me...


I will add a few more things:

I think it's important to run good at the start of your poker. Either that or you should remain at the same stake until you definitely have a sample, and then move up.

100k is not a sample unless you are a god at that stake.

200k...same deal.


I made 7k like it was NOTHING last year in a short period of time...it was like. BAM. I bought stuff, went on vacation. This year, even after 1100 worth of coaching and a lot of effort I don't do nearly as well as I did back then.

I am well over $2k (50+ Buy ins at 50nl, 100nl and 25nl) down in EV this year as opposed to being up a few hundred end of last. Soooo... that alone is a difference of about 3k. Big variance in poker...especially if you play a lot of tables, since then EV adds up quick.




ALL IN EV .....IS, and it always will be a very big part of variance. DO NOT ignore it if you are up. DO NOT make dumb excuses about how it's not important, we all sometimes get most of the money in only for the damn guy to luck out and the EV wont show it...that happens. But ev does matter, a lot more than the average guy think it does. ANY decent player will confirm this fact.



I have run hot for over 200k hands, and I have ran bad for over 200k hands. These stuff happens. YOU DO NOT have a sample unless it is really big...trust me crazy **** happens.

If you are a 2BB winner or a 3BB winner... then you don't need that big a sample. But personally I am only slightly over 1BB winner at 50nl and I play about 1000hands/hour. Decent money for a guy living in South Africa... But the variance is mind crushing.



DO
NOT

underestimate variance.

It will one day rape you like it did me.

hey guys i went through this thread and learn some stuff about standard deviation. very interesting for sure.
i just have a question about how it relates to the edge we're exploiting.
i might be wrong in the linking i'm doing so let me know if i'm completely out of the topic.
let's say i have a 52% equity in a pot when the money gets in (typically 22 vs AKo for example) if i only play that situation over and over again my standard deviation is gonna be really low. so the lower the equity (providing we're always +EV) the lower the std isn't it?
so if we have big equity when the money goes in the STD will be higher over that situation.
so this leads me to this reflexion, shouldn't we aim for the highest STD? this would mean we get the money in good (or very good) most of the time.

this reasonning is flawed but i can't see why.

also i'm very proud of annoucing a 0.12ptbb/100 with a std of 31ptbb/100 over my last 30k hands and guess what??? i broke even!
sigh

hope this will change now i'm a journeyman yeeehaaaa

i believe you have it backwards and the bigger your edge, the lower your STD. So if you get it aipf 100 hands in a row with AA v KK and have 80% equity, your STD is signifcantly lower than when you get it aipf 100 hands in a row with 22 v AK and have 52% equity.

if i am not mistaken, this is how it works mathematically

*Split* is right. 100 AA v KK flips will have lower variance than 100 AK v 22 flips, as the variance is proportional to the square root of npq, where n is the number of flips, p is the probability that player1 wins, and q is the probability that player2 wins. This equation also show us that variance goes up as we take more and more flips. The variance of one hundred flips is ten times more than the variance of one flip. Let's say you take flips ad infinitum, AK v 22. The variance will approach infinity, but you winnings per hand will approach its expected value since sqrt(n)/n --> 0 as n --> infinity. Hope that helps.

Nice.

I like to think of EV (or WR) signal and stddev (sqrt(variance)) as noise. Taken together, we have a signal-to-noise ratio, familiar to those in communication.

If the S2N is really low (i.e. noisy) then the game looks more like roulette (we can imagine 0 EV roulette and +2% EV roulette as needed) because it takes too many trials for skill (the signal/EV) to dominate the luck (noise/stddev)

Anyone got a graph of what an ideal 25nl winrate is before going to 50nl? I'm intending to beat 25nl at a decent rate before moving up.

It would be ideal if someone could post a graph of 50k hands + at 25nl and also tell me what a good winrate is. Thanks.

someone posting a graph won't help you at all... graphs can be very misleading... here's one of 53k hands at 25NL

same graph a week later...

you simply just have to move up when you feel you're ready. set a stop loss and move back down if you hit it.

There is no such thing as an "ideal" winrate. The higher, the better. If you have been winning over 50k hands, and you have the roll, then give NL50 a try.

My personal opinion is that if you have made 20 BI at your current level you're ready to take a shot. That can take 10k hands, or 100k hands. But everyone has their own criteria.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...g-down-729719/

My criteria is a lot (bankroll) nittier: I've won 40 BI at my current 50NL Rush stakes. I'll probably stay at 50NL until I've won 100 BI and am satisfied with the consistency of my play. It would also be nice to see a decent WR over 150k+ sample.

While I expect to continue to win at 50NL, I know that I'm really a bad player still. I really have little feel for how flops hit ranges and rarely think above level 2. I think I need to improve my preflop skills (stoving ranges, figuring out 3b and 4b ranges) to avoid being too easy a mark at 100NL.

Also, it is nice having at least some hands in my DB on the regs at my level. When I move up the competition will be tougher and I'll have less information.