PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 152.6 BB
SB: 201.2 BB
BB: 125.5 BB
Hero (UTG): 206.7 BB
MP: 125.6 BB
CO: 135.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K K

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 10 BB, fold, Hero raises to 24 BB, SB calls 14 BB

Flop: (49 BB, 2 players) 9 J 4
SB bets 26 BB, Hero calls 26 BB

Turn: (101 BB, 2 players) 3
SB bets 49 BB, Hero calls 49 BB

River: (199 BB, 2 players) T
SB bets 102.2 BB and is all-in, Hero??

Snapcalling.

snapfolding, unless tilted

Bigger pre. I like raise either otf or ott.
If he got a set we gone lose a stack anyway vs Jx and QQ jamm is better. Calling is good only if you think he bluffs a lot otr, but you don't see that kind of play unless he is aggro fish.

thanks. i could not find the fold button, villain had

and a bucket


Agreed, with raising flop and GII. By the river I think they're slightly unnaturally strong but maybe not so strong we can't die? Presuming they have to have all their combos of QQ and AJs to make KK a pure call and not sure they do with this line?

Sigh, **** gto

Bluff Catching in 4bet pots is going to be tough, especially in a fast fold environment and even more especially 200bb deep.

Would go bigger PF. Can go around 3x IP here when 200bb deep.

If we are playing our A game we just fold turn here. This is going to be AA a lot more than QQ/Jx.

Also completely disagree with the GII/raise flop narrative. If you raise flop and he ships it and you call. You will have 10% equity the vast majority of the time.

You 3x UTG and SB3BET you and then SB calls a 4bet. That already makes their range very tight. Consider that fast fold players are tighter on average and then consider they donk half pot on very dry board. And then consider it is 200bb deep. Players play VERY carefully when deeper in general. Everything points to just calling.

Raising would be a big blunder imo, you aren't getting action from worse. I wouldn't be surprised if QQ just open folds flop to a raise,

Bluff catching OTF is the way to go here, especially on a board that has no FDs. We are really hoping he checks turn and we can play a 2 street game. You can't go 3 streets with KK.

ah yes, Pio seems to be folding a portion of its kings. Even blocking KQs (which only a solver SB would have anyway). Usually a fractional gto fold translates to an always IRL fold in practice so that probably is how tight and potentially losing this call is

Not an awful lot of raising going on either

It thinks SB makes a reasonably -EV mistake by donking. but... by playing like this SB totally maxed out against my slight stationy-ness. whereas if they'd played 'perfectly' and xc xc x, I probably x river and they lose a street. lols. Fish 1 GTO 0

I'd say it's more about understanding fundamental poker concepts rather than just reading some PIO output that says we don't raise flop.

You have to think about what hands you are targeting when you raise. You don't just lol raise because we have an overpair in a 4bet pot and he donked.

Can't imagine the turn is ever a bluff without some kind of history. People don't normally donk huge 3 times in 4b pots for 177BB.

Issue with calling this past flop is that villain have no idea if you are capable of folding overpair, and for most regs losing 200bb in this spot bluffing is disaster, i dont remember when last time i saw anybody showing qq here, had to be very, very long time ago, river call is actully even worse vs fishy villain, as fish can have kqo, 78s, jts

LOL stop it man.

Nits ITT.

As soon as villain throws out that 1/2pot donkbet, you know str8 away that he isn't a pro/good reg. You pretty much KNOW at this point that hes some type of fish or a whale, obv if hes a whale then it makes calling down way easier but even if hes a smaller fish then pretty easy call down still.

Flop/Turn super std calls, if you want to raise...i wouldn't kill you for it, like at least your not a nit. but i prefer call just keep in w/e goofy stuff they have and board is dry AF.

River he shoves for 1/2 pot, you need 25%eq to call...like he doesn't just have AA, Top set and KQs lol, u should be able to pretty easily come up with ranges where you have 25%. Just call and note.

Also, results orientated but kinda proves my point how bad villain is, he donks 1/2pot (lol?) with top set on a board OP was about to rangebet and barrel on, completely ridiculous and not even close to being a thing.

ok yea he can also have KJo, QJs, QQ...way better for us if his preflop range is wide here.

like, if he can donk flop and barrel turn with JTs, then you kinda have to include QJs+ in his shoving range otr

[FONT=courier new][SIZE=12]
Board: 49J 3 T
Equity Win Tie
MP2 30.61% 30.61% 0.00% { KK }
MP3 69.39% 69.39% 0.00% { JJ, 99, 44, AJs, KJs+, QJs, JTs, 87s }
[/SIZE][/FONT]


Thats all the nuts at 100%, with some worse value jams and no bluffs - and you have a money printing call.

I'm the furthest thing from a nit. I just don't like making EV minus call downs.

Snap calling OTT/OTR is lighting money on fire.

It's ironic that you are criticizing SB's play here since Ceres himself told us that he played it ideal vs him. Just because someone does something unorthodox doesn't make it bad. That's narrow minded thinking.

Calling SB a fish or whale is dismissive. He used proper 3bet sizing and is sitting 200bb deep. Those two facts point him to being closer to a reg than a whale.

I'd say your whole analysis in general just berates SB even though he played it perfectly vs his opponent.

As for the last part, yeah you are never good here 25% of the time OTR. It's a lot closer to 0% than 25%. lol@money printing call.

sure about that? u want to fold overpairs on the turn in 4bet pots vs donkbets lines. pretty nitty.

nope. the river is closest decision in the hand, but not close. TURN IS PRINTING MONEY CALL OR SHOVE. Do you think the opponent is just leading sets @ 100% freq and AA and nothing else? please tell me what his range looks like OTT.

Ceres in that same paragraph labelled villain as FISH just so you know. Also there is a ton of ways villain can look like he played the hand perfectly here and get paid, like poker is pretty easy when you have Top set vs overpair in 4bet pot.

villains line is not just unorthodox, its goofy af. Ceres himself said that solvers have it as reasonably -EV, its just bad.

Also Ceres, if villain plays here x/c F/T and x River, u should jam River. yea T not the best card but Kings still fine to rip.

As soon as the guy throws out that flop donkbet, the chance of him being a pro/good reg plummets, and the chance of him being SOME KIND OF FISH, goes way up. Now what does it mean if hes some kind of fish...Higher chance of punts, higher chance of overplaying value.

His 3bet sizing, and stack depth mean don't mean a whole lot to me here compared to his flop donk line.

I think donking JJ might be the best way to get 3 streets tbh. A lot of people don't 4b bluff, and when they do, they dont normally bluff off 177BB IP postflop. They also don't fold overpairs in general, let alone KK and AA, and there's a good chance that they check back at least once.

I don’t know why Villain donking should be bad here. He gets it in 200BB with 3 1/2 pot size bets. Sure his river shove might get some folds but it is the same outcome as hero checking behind one street.

On my best (or worst?) days I might find a fold on the turn 200 bb deep, on an average day I think I know I’m toast on the river.

Do people expect Jx here like ever?

Maybe it's just me, but I never feel obligated to ride AA or KK to my doom, like a barrel over Niagara Falls.