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JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout

01-30-2025 , 07:25 PM
Opponent is a 24/20 reg over 1k sample with a 9% 3-bet.

PartyGaming - $1 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 103.5 BB (VPIP: 19.74, PFR: 15.77, 3Bet Preflop: 7.34, Hands: 1,591)
BB: 158.33 BB (VPIP: 31.51, PFR: 18.90, 3Bet Preflop: 3.17, Hands: 370)
Hero (UTG): 184.74 BB
MP: 137.27 BB (VPIP: 25.37, PFR: 20.65, 3Bet Preflop: 9.57, Hands: 1,039)
CO: 138.3 BB (VPIP: 20.11, PFR: 15.71, 3Bet Preflop: 6.23, Hands: 908)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 36.82, PFR: 26.44, 3Bet Preflop: 9.94, Hands: 1,362)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J J

Hero raises to 2 BB, MP raises to 6.6 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 5.6 BB, Hero calls 4.6 BB

Flop: (20.3 BB, 3 players) 4 4 6
BB checks, Hero checks, MP bets 9.6 BB, fold, Hero calls 9.6 BB

Turn: (39.5 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, MP bets 32.83 BB, Hero calls 32.83 BB

River: (105.16 BB, 2 players) T
Hero checks, MP bets 88.24 BB and is all-in, Hero ?



What is the weakest hand you call on this river with?

Does the fact that the opponent bet geometric on the turn make you want to call more, fold more, or no different?

Do you think, because I don't have a club in my hand, that this situations is good, bad, or no different for me?
JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout Quote
01-30-2025 , 10:08 PM
I have no problem folding the turn given the positions and the flop is MW with a fish coldcaller, and because of the massive sizings.
JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout Quote
01-30-2025 , 10:47 PM
Probably call down. Hands like AKs/AKo are always supposed to check river and that doesn't happen.

Whenever there are a lot of easy bluffs to choose from you want to call 0EV bluff catchers. You only fold when the bluffs are non-intuitive.
JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout Quote
01-31-2025 , 12:15 PM
I'd always 4bet that hand facing a cold call. It's 4betting quite often anyways heads-up but now there's a ton of dead money in the pot and JJ isn't a hand that wants to go postflop 3way.

I would also fold river, as I think they aren't going to range bet that board with 2 players left to act so my guess is that he doesn't have all those AK combos that "should give up" very often. I think folding turn is ok too
JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout Quote
01-31-2025 , 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bixton1m
I'd always 4bet that hand facing a cold call. It's 4betting quite often anyways heads-up but now there's a ton of dead money in the pot and JJ isn't a hand that wants to go postflop 3way.

I would also fold river, as I think they aren't going to range bet that board with 2 players left to act so my guess is that he doesn't have all those AK combos that "should give up" very often. I think folding turn is ok too
If you 4bet preflop and HJ jams and BB folds.

Are you calling or folding?
JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout Quote
01-31-2025 , 03:30 PM
Theres 32 combos of AK and AQ minua suited clubs which check the river. Assume ak checks half of the time and bets half of the time in flop and turn. That's 7.5 comboes by river

Otoh there's 6 combos of aces, 6 of kings, 6 of queens, and 3 of TT.

Suppose they do pot control 50% of the time, thats 10.5 comboes.

Other factors are pot bet on the turn being quite big, a third player behind making a flop bet less likely.

I guess they could also 3bet at,aj, but I wouldn't count on it. Maybe jts or qjs as a bluff? Thats 6 more comboes.


Methinks it's a fold, but not an easy one to find, nor a huge equity difference either way.

I would have probably flipped a couple of coins in to call 25% of the time and not be exploitable to overbluffers
JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout Quote
01-31-2025 , 03:33 PM
P.s. i mentioned ak cbets 50% of the time, and double barrels another 50%. But I probably ****ed up the interaction with AcKc, since that always cbets and the river bet discards that hypothesis.

Also cbet is much more frequent than double barrel, but I feel it's a fair simplification.
JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout Quote
01-31-2025 , 03:35 PM
Variance and rake would be a huge factor in folding here, if the equity of folding and calling is almost equal, we should err towards folding to reduce variance and rake.
JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout Quote
01-31-2025 , 04:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
Probably call down. Hands like AKs/AKo are always supposed to check river and that doesn't happen.

Whenever there are a lot of easy bluffs to choose from you want to call 0EV bluff catchers. You only fold when the bluffs are non-intuitive.
I agree with the statement of calling bluffcatchers when villain has alot of intuitive bluffcombos and vise versa but i dont agree that this is a spot where he will have alot of natural bluffs on the river.
1. It is multiway so the likleyhood of him just checking back flop with AQ AK type hands is higher
2. He 3b from hj wich does not contain so many broadway type bluffs like KQ KJ AJo QJs etc so if he 3b from co very different situation.
3. The turn is a more intuitve check back with AK then barrel i think. Villain would need to be aware of the fact that he is not having that many other broadways in his range so he need some AK AQ there.
4. T river is a great card for our range wich makes it also more likley that he will slow down some of the time with AK AQ type hands

I would probably fold JJ here and call 77 88 type hands just want to unblock his AJs KJs type hands wich are his most intuitve bluffs if i block this hands + he is not barreling AQ AK then our call gets pretty bad. Vs solver we could not do that because it just stops bluffing then jx and goes crazy with AK AQ but dont think that happens in reality. So if unsure try to pick combos from your range that unblock villains most intuitve bluffs instead of just randomizing everything buy gutfeeling.
JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout Quote
01-31-2025 , 04:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by giova9990x
I agree with the statement of calling bluffcatchers when villain has alot of intuitive bluffcombos and vise versa but i dont agree that this is a spot where he will have alot of natural bluffs on the river.
1. It is multiway so the likleyhood of him just checking back flop with AQ AK type hands is higher
2. He 3b from hj wich does not contain so many broadway type bluffs like KQ KJ AJo QJs etc so if he 3b from co very different situation.
3. The turn is a more intuitve check back with AK then barrel i think. Villain would need to be aware of the fact that he is not having that many other broadways in his range so he need some AK AQ there.
4. T river is a great card for our range wich makes it also more likley that he will slow down some of the time with AK AQ type hands

I would probably fold JJ here and call 77 88 type hands just want to unblock his AJs KJs type hands wich are his most intuitve bluffs if i block this hands + he is not barreling AQ AK then our call gets pretty bad. Vs solver we could not do that because it just stops bluffing then jx and goes crazy with AK AQ but dont think that happens in reality. So if unsure try to pick combos from your range that unblock villains most intuitve bluffs instead of just randomizing everything buy gutfeeling.
But Texture supersedes sizing in MDA.

The board texture makes our hand face up so we call because our opponent knows this. I do like your 77/88 call over JJ but this guy under 3bets preflop based on his stats so hands like QJs/JTs won’t be as much of his range as theory. Which means blockers mean less.

The T works in our favor more than against us because yes he will be less inclined to bluff but maybe he doesn’t value bet QQ now because he thinks it’s too thin.

Regs X back more value in practice than theory so the Ten OTR is more of a good card for us not a bad card since it polarizes him. We want that when bluff catching.

QQ is a worse call than JJ here because AQ/KQs are 100% 3bets preflop and JJ won’t value bet river on the Ten.

So if you are folding JJ here you are folding QQ.
JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout Quote
01-31-2025 , 05:54 PM
I don't think there's any way that MP is going to x turn with QQ+ on this board when UTG just has a FH almost always and is never folding. People who cbet AK/AQ on the flop usually x turn with them, and I think this board makes that even more likely than usual.
JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout Quote
01-31-2025 , 06:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
But Texture supersedes sizing in MDA.
Look at MDA when reg bets 1/2 in MW pot, its not the same as 1/2 in HU.
JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout Quote
02-01-2025 , 11:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
... but this guy under 3bets preflop based on his stats so hands like QJs/JTs won’t be as much of his range as theory. Which means blockers mean less.
I think you could see those hands full in a 9.5 MP 3b range


If we are calling down, then is IP's cbet vulnerable to a x/r gii strategy i wonder?
JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout Quote
02-02-2025 , 10:25 PM
Yikes, no way in hell am I ever calling down here with 77 or 88 unless opponent is spazzing. I'd also be more inclined to call with QQ than JJ. If I hold QQ then he's much less likely to hold QQ and that's one less value hand to worry about. I think holding a in my hand may be slightly better for calling down on river, but it may be negligible. The fact that my opponent chose a geometric size makes me think he may be more reg-like and therefore increasing the probability that he can have some bluffs here, but I don't know. In the end, I did call and he flipped over AA to scoop the pot.
JJ in 3-bet pot facing triple barrel on 4464T runout Quote

      
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