Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 102.6 BB (VPIP: 30.43, PFR: 21.74, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 26)
SB: 189.4 BB (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
BB: 84.2 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
UTG: 101.4 BB (VPIP: 19.23, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 26)
Hero (MP): 125.6 BB
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.95, PFR: 23.71, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 609)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9 9

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.6 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (9 BB, 3 players) T 9 K
SB bets 5.6 BB, BB calls 5.6 BB, Hero raises to 24 BB, fold, BB raises to 42.4 BB, Hero calls 18.4 BB

Turn: (99.4 BB, 2 players) J
BB bets 38.8 BB and is all-in, fold,

Yeah just shove flop at this stack depth, BB is rarely ever bluffing in this spot but we're ahead of their value range as they 3B TT/KK pre flop, and I'm happy GII vs two pair, flush draws and straights.

AP should call turn as villain may still bet flush draws and two pair for this sizing and still got decent equity vs straights. If we fold 99, we're folding everything as we don't have Qx in this spot.

He has QJ the overwhelming majority of the time. So *shrug*

Thanks for the input. I question whether he's shoving two pair OTT though. And I think a lot of his flush draws have the Qh in it. I didn't put too much thought into the decision OTT, thought it was an auto fold. I'll give that one a think.

I assume you mean *shrug* shove? I sort of immediately regretted not shoving, even before the turn.

My shrug was because I have little opinion one way or the other since it's a close spot and I didn't do any sort of math on it.

Yeah I wouldn't but may be in the shortstackers range, either way I'm happy to GII here OTF, as I'm not folding bc of pot odds.

My guess is it's better to get it in while our equity is widest than risk getting blown off it or having to call off pretty much any other turn anyway with those odds. And I also base that off not doing any maths.

So you're calling the turn as well?

No, flop.

Math ftw:
I did this in bbs since that is what OP posted in.

Against a range of TsTc/KTs/QJ we have 38.05% so...
(.6195*57.2) - (.3805*119.80)
35.44-45.58
=+10.14 and converted to money, +$.50

Against a range of QJ we have 34.56% so...
(.6544*57.2) - (.3456*119.80)
37.43-41.40=+3.97 and converted to money, +$.20

With both ranges we lose to the rake.

I put the hero second in both examples by accident. Far too lazy to fix it. The numbers are correct.

I did not put hands like JT in the range because those are far more likely to flat or shove flop. I added two combos of KTs and not all KT's because I think KT almost never plays like this, same for one combo of TT. This has all combos of QJ because fishy players will commonly play like this. Feel free to change the 3 unlikely combos to combodraws instead and make your own calcs

Yea, sorry. Meant flop.

Awesome, thank you.

Actually, AP do you call the turn or fold?