You misunderstand me. I'm not going out of my way to help people per say, I like being social with regards to poker. Me posting MDA is a byproduct of that.

Anyways, like everything in life.

We eventually regress to the mean, and the mean is tiresome. The average person is tiresome. They are entitled and ignorant.

lol@reluctant.

I like you whitemares and wish you well but if you think the general public is somehow entitled to my MDA just because I made a post about it then you are truly delusional.

I made a post about this because I wanted to see how the average reg thinks about this spot. Not everything I post is for the public's benefit, I know it's very hard to accept that since the average person thinks that just because they respond to my thread I owe them my entire thought process.

But you guys didn't let me down, you got the spot completely wrong!

That's what I wanted to learn.

Did people get it wrong because donk, x/c, bet, is over bluffed?

Sincere question... do you think it's at all possible that just looking at MDA data based on lines, may lead to incorrect conclusions? And those conclusions may be hard to detect because, well... poker variance is a bitch and can be super misleading?

I think you might be misunderstanding me as well - I never suggested you were doing any of this to help people. I have no clue what your motivations are, nor do they really matter to me that much tbh. I only said that I read your posts because they're useful to me and I learn from them, unlike most other posts in this forum

I also did not suggest that anyone is in any way entitled to the MDA you have. Or your thought process or whatever else. Not sure why you might have thought this, but just to be clear about it. Though I certainly am appreciative of any information you have shared, since it's not something I would typically have had access to

I just said that I don't quite understand why you're giving away information for free if you're going to then take issue with getting freerolled. That's why I said "apparently reluctant," since nothing else suggested to me you had an issue with sharing some of this information

You wanted to learn that a few random regulars don't have a view of this spot that's wholly consistent with your MDA?

I like you too DDP, and have always respected your ability and approach to poker, but I just don't totally understand what's going on here

I never thought of it as getting taking advantage of until recently, that's my paradigm shift.

You have to understand when someone has good intentions, if people keep taking advantage of you, you have to change your strategy. It's basically The Prisoner's Dilemma in real time.

I'm a product of what this forum made me.

So yes I am 100% done giving away all my information, it's very obvious now even if I was naive before.

You need DonkCall-XC-DonkJam lines.

Using the calculator Tombo's made eliminates all variance rebuttals. People love using that rebuttal because it's a lazy way of saying hey I don't know if you are right but you might not be!

Yes, I was being gracious with not being totally exact in the line.

The reason why game theory strategy at universities moved away from using chess as a model for war strategy, and moved to poker, is because the psychological component to it makes it that much more complex.

The only way you can use deductive reasoning to come to any valid conclusion about MDA data is by using, line + runout + player type. Anything short of that, and you'll be significantly off in your conclusions and it will be VERY difficult to know if you are or not because of how wide the variance will be. Do you doubt what I'm saying at all?

MDA data based on lines should be used as an extra weight when you're putting together the puzzle of the hand. It seems you are using it in most of your hands as the only gospel. Is this incorrect, or am I overstating something?

No I don't doubt your general premise but you are failing to execute it. If someone is an 87+ VPIP, it's a very easy call not a super easy fold just based on preflop combos.

If you want to use the low sample argument on the 87 VPIP then please refer to Tombos 3 outcome explanation on my PGC that is no longer in service.

Hopefully I don't get banned for speaking the truth (is that still allowed in poker?).

I want to make sure I don't offend anyone first.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($270.26) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.2% | AGG: 36.6% | Flop Agg: 41.5% | Turn Agg: 33.9% | River Agg: 37.2% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.1% | Hands: 327384]
CO ($262.11) [VPIP: 19.4% | PFR: 19.4% | AGG: 14.3% | Hands: 39]
BTN ($208.70) [VPIP: 34.2% | PFR: 26.3% | AGG: 31.6% | Hands: 39]
SB ($172.94) [VPIP: 87.5% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 40% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 20% | River Agg: 75% | 3Bet: 20% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 60% | Hands: 8]
BB ($149) [VPIP: 34.8% | PFR: 17.4% | AGG: 46.7% | Flop Agg: 42.9% | Turn Agg: 60% | River Agg: 33.3% | 3Bet: 12.5% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 30% | Hands: 24]
UTG ($200) [VPIP: 21.7% | PFR: 4.3% | AGG: 45.5% | Hands: 23]

Dealt to Hero: J J

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To $6, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Calls $5, BB Calls $4

Hero SPR on Flop: [7.94 effective]
Flop ($18): 8 5 7
SB Bets $4 (Rem. Stack: $162.94), BB Folds, HERO Raises To $20 (Rem. Stack: $244.26), SB Calls $16 (Rem. Stack: $146.94)

Turn ($58): 8 5 7 Q
SB Checks, HERO Bets $41.33 (Rem. Stack: $202.93), SB Calls $41.33 (Rem. Stack: $105.61)

River ($140.66): 8 5 7 Q 9
SB Bets $105.61 (allin), HERO Calls $105.61 (Rem. Stack: $97.32)

You have 8 hands on your opponent.

But even if it's 50% VPIP, loose passive players don't usually turn pairs into bluffs. Doesn't mean they never will. They did this time, and hence my point... variance can be really deceiving. You could be in this same spot the next 10 times, and each time they have it.

DDP, I'm trying to be fair to you here, but over the years you've been all-in on several different poker theories, and you wouldn't listen much to people who had different views. Those didn't seem to work out, so now you moved to MDA betting lines, and you've had some recent success, which is great. I'm just trying to be a friend here and let you know that this isn't the best theory still. It's good data to have, but imho, you're applying it too broadly.

And that's all I'm going to say about that. I don't want to argue about it. Trying to provide some constructive feedback based on my observations of your posting history.

Come on FD you don't get to say you are trying to provide constructive feedback while passively aggressively trying to discredit me. Look at your wording.

You need to be much more scientific in your approach, this dinosaur approach of just saying things off the cuff doesn't work anymore. Players are too good now and the psyche of a poker player has evolved.

My argument is this, if you can't tell me what the VPIP confidence interval is of someone that has 87.5% over 8 hands is... how can you intelligently approach this hand?

You have a history of being 100% certain and getting thing's 100% wrong.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/6...ght=newguyhere

Here is a reference to this thread where you completely dismissed me and were completely incorrect (I have 4 sources in my data, please provide your own). This is one of many threads.

I rely on results and data, everything else to me is immaterial and just straight up posturing. These are my results for the past 62k+ hands.



Feel free to post your graph

Neither of things even remotely apply to a poker strategy post on 2p2, why are you prefacing a hand history like you're about to say something dumb on social media

I mean yeah I get where you're coming from man, but I don't really see what the big deal is with all this stuff. So you were a little too willing to share the information, just don't share it anymore. You made the right adjustment going forward, don't get hung up on the fact that you (by your own estimation) made a mistake

I also don't get why you care about trolls like Kendooo or whatever his name is. There are always going to be people who just hate the fact that you exist, why give them any of your mental energy

It's an homage to when I was actually banned from the forum....holy ***** mind your business man.

It's very disrespectful of you to talk to me like that. I've helped you A TON on this forum. I literally put money in your pocket and explained things to you. And you talk to me like I'm some bimbo.

I don't know why you have the need to reply to everything? This conversation has nothing to do with you. But you HAVE to insert yourself.

I actually think you are low-key jealous of me.

I remember you messaging me like 3 years ago and saying how we could "do some damage together" or whatever and you fizzled out (50nl still?/46WWSF?) and now this is some weird revenge tour for you because you don't have the intelligence to make it in poker.

I tried to help you but you keep inserting yourself into matters that don't concern you. Do me a favor and don't come into my threads. I'm all set with you, you offer nothing of value to me. Don't even view my threads man.

But don't forget you are intelligent, you're just running bad!

I'm honestly not sure what you're doing here. Maybe you're having a bad day or something, so I'm just going to let it go.

I wasn't passively aggressively trying to discredit you. I think you're a good player, and I've said that in here many times and in private chats with you. I'm stating my opinion, which you are not open to, and that's fine. Cherry-picking one thread out of 17k posts I've made and saying I've said I'm 100% certain, but 100% wrong isn't passive-aggressive. It's just mean.

You're making a lot of bad assumptions about me, because I of course can't be correct, because I'm older than you (so I'm a dinosaur). I'm just offering random opinions, and pissing into the wind apparently. Even though I'm one of the first poker players to actually do MDA analysis, and sold hundreds of thousands of copies of software that does MDA in Leak Buster. I created one of the first GTO calculators, before most poker players even knew how to apply GTO strategies to poker. I told you very early in private chats, if you remember, that the best approach to beating poker today was a mixture of understanding GTO, and MDA, and knowing when to apply the correct one. You didn't believe me then... do you remember any of those conversations over 5+ years ago? Because I still have them in chat. It turns out this dinosaur might have been correct.

I don't post graphs publically. You have one of my graphs, and I know what you're doing. I know people extremely well. It's part of the reason I've been so successful at poker for so long. Take a breath and read the posts you've been making to people in here today. I'll sum it up for you (and promise to be more direct)... I've had 62k hands of recent success. I know wtf I'm talking about. You guys are ***** idiots, and you're lucky that I even bother to share any knowledge I have with you, you lesser beings.

That's at least how it comes off. Maybe do a reset, because a lot of these people, good or bad players or however you view them, have helped you along the way.

Your resume is very impressive but that's not what we are talking about, this isn't opinion. It's factual. It's just research and data, there's no need to take anything personally.

It's really not about who's good and who's not, that ship sailed long ago. All that matters is the data for the line. That's why it's a very easy call and you maintain it's a very easy fold.

Everything else is noise, let's just keep on topic.

Again, if someone is an 87+ VPIP over 8 hands, it's a no brainer call and it's not close.

I'll be sure to get more data to back up my claim, please try too as well.

I'm a fkn idiot for falling into your trap. I mean you posted a hand knowing the result already. Presumably because you expected many people to say it's a fold on a 4 straight board, and you called and won. I genuinely hope you apply those critical thinking skills to why you'd make that post to begin with.

It's of course not personal. I realized after my previous post that anything critical of your theory or reasoning could be taken personally because you're coaching now, and that was of course never my intent to cause any ill will there at all. So I apologize if it seemed that way, but that was in no way why I challenged your thought process.

There's a theme in a lot of your responses to me lately that you don't think I'm using data, which is personally funny to me because my whole life has been about analyzing data and thinking theoretically how to apply it best. That's why I got good at poker so fast to begin with, became a successful trader for so long, and have run so many successful businesses. You can have all the data in the world, but it's useless if you're not applying it correctly. That's why you can give a HUD to a fish, and they will still suck.

And so back to the hand.... lol... You assumed I was just opining, but I wasn't. Some of the first data I looked at was how fish play certain hand ranges, and I've applied that information my whole poker career, because I knew early on most of the money was coming from fish, and understanding how to maximally exploit them was more important than getting in dick measuring contests w/ other regs. I've always played for money, not ego. One set of that data was how often fish turn one pair into bluffs. It's important data to know on bad runouts, kind of like the one in your OP.

Fish turning one pair into bluffs was < 10%, and it increased to a whopping ~20% on 4 flush and 4 straight boards.

If we agree that the most ideal data we could have for any hand in poker would be, line data + runout data + player type tendencies, and you could only have 1 of those 3 sets of data, which one do you think could produce the most long term reliable results, and why?

If you don't want to answer, that's fine, and we can even take this offline. I just want to keep it to the question of ideal applied theory.

Keep it on topic or don't post.

Kendoo - that's not a racist word, it's sexist. A quick google will show you that.

look what it does mean in german - it‘s as racist as possible

I'd fold river. Why not check back the turn? You aren't getting 3 streets of value with JJ anyway, so you might as well check turn with plans to call a bet on the river or bet yourself.

fedora vibes

I read back over this thread, and I'm still genuinely confused on wtf was going on here. It still feels like we're being gas lit and the theory doesn't make sense.

The summary is -
DonkCall-XC-DonkJam lines are overbluffed, even though we don't know by how much. And texture is irrelevant in regard to these lines, because all variance has been removed in the calculations that were done.


So 4 straight board w/ this line, is the same as Ah4c7cKs9d board.

Ok, done and done.

Does anyone else apply this kind of reasoning in their hand analysis? Sincerely curious. Maybe I'm completely missing something.

straights are harder to make when u need one of 4 cards instead of 8

@DooDooPoker First, congrats on becoming a coach, and second nice graph even if a smaller recent sample size.

At first reading through the thread, I've thought maybe you swung from too much pure rationalism to pure empiricism, but reading it more closely, and in the full context of your non-hand related comments I see that you are applying highly in context reasoning in specific cases along with theory and that your non-hand related comments are great both epistemologically and morally in several different contexts even if the tone is a bit off. Just based on the whole you might want to consider looking into Objectivism if you never have because much of what I can infer from your comments and current method shows a strong sense of life that is a great match in all of those aspects.

I've been out of poker for the most part the last couple of years because after doing volunteer work for Skinwalker Ranch and providing world-changing physics and other technological ideas and philosophical advancements my entire life has been under siege by some sort of domestic terrorist group but those details aren't needed here.

Proud of you DDP and hope you are experiencing the virtue of pride for yourself as it appears that you should now.

You've been working for Skinwalker Worldz?? Wow. Tres cool. Can i PM u?

Did ddp call because his mda told him to and lose to the rec who obviously had a straight and is now trying to take it out on everyone else? 8 hands lol 🤣 this thread is 10/10

Why are people resurrecting one month old threads? Must be a slow day in the microstakes forum.

I guess people want results?





What's up Worldz! It's been awhile.

That's interesting you are working at Skinwalker Ranch, that's a very interesting place. Season 5 is coming up April 23rd and I like how Brandon Fugal has handled everything so far.

PM me some more details about what you did there as I would be curious to hear how the volunteer work went.

Obviously.