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Old 04-28-2009, 03:15 PM   #126
lnternet
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

youre wasting time when you start the new 2k-2k match early but lose the 3k-1k one.
youre gaining time when you start the 2k-2k match early and manage to win the 3k-1k one, cause the 2k-2k one will be over quicker. potentially even over quicker than the 3k-1k one.

so starting the new one = ~75% chance of saving time = ~25% of wasting time = ~50% save in time

now what is that 50% time ImNotSoGood?? Please do some math on that for us!
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:23 PM   #127
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

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Originally Posted by Troy Gamble View Post
wahh wahh whine to 2p2 who cares seriously about any of this.... shows the immaturity of someone to start a thread about something like this. how can't u guys settle this without starting a thread?
WTF YOU of all people have ABSOLUTELY ZEROOOOO right to say this. stfu ***** clown. god damn u start more ******ed and stupid threads all the time.

get banned or something.

Quote:
Originally Posted by skier_5 View Post
lol. no ****ing way would i grant a pause after all that either. zugwat, this whole thread is completely unreasonable and i feel like imnotsogood is completely justified in his actions. i mean the dude has ****ing finals and you keep blowing him off when he obviously won't be able to play in a few weeks. stop being such a selfish douchemonkey. though, the single/multi table thing is hilarious.

/tilt
gonna QFT this cuz this is how i feel too in regards to this thread.

edit: imnotsogoods math about **** is wack even though i didn't really look at it.

Last edited by Big_Jim; 04-28-2009 at 03:34 PM.
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:35 PM   #128
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Epic thread! Interesting to see how people try to explain to Imnotsogood about the fallacy.
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:36 PM   #129
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

this is funny.

Pretty sure INSG is trying to use math to describe momentum/confidence.

I kinda see where he's getting this train of thought, but it's still ridiculous not to start the 3rd game.
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:37 PM   #130
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

I knew it's going to be a 5 star thread
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:44 PM   #131
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

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Originally Posted by ImNotSoGood View Post
wow, ....

If I two table while 0-1, I should have a 52.5% chance of winning round 2 (Assuming the Extreme %'s I gave earlier).

While I'm 2 tabling, neither tables have anything to do with the 3rd table yet. Both tables are concerned with winning a second table and making it 1-1. Only then is the 3rd table really its own entity, as before it was trying to get a win to make it 1-1.
if u r really convinced of this im sure u can bet ur entire bankroll and we can find someone more than qualified to arbitrate for that amount of money and give the answer.
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:49 PM   #132
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

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are you in China or something?
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:57 PM   #133
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

imnotsogood-

i offer u this- step 1-u can pick a number (1,2,3,4) and if it is the number i chose then u lose. so 3 of the 4 numbers u advance or 75% of the time. step 2- next i say pick a number (1,2) if u pick the number i chose u lose. so 1 of the 2 numbers u advance or 50% of the time. if u wrote down both numbers at the same time would u be less likely to advance in this simulation? if u did step 2 before step 1 would u be less likely to advance in the simulation?
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Old 04-28-2009, 04:00 PM   #134
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

this thread is OUTRAGEOUS
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Old 04-28-2009, 04:01 PM   #135
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

The dice analogy is way better imo
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Old 04-28-2009, 04:08 PM   #136
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

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Originally Posted by Sp00n View Post
The dice analogy is way better imo
its wrong bc a 3k to 1k stack wins 75% of the time not 66% so before u brag about an analogy that takes an idiot to set up get the 4th grade level math right.
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Old 04-28-2009, 04:19 PM   #137
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

I'm just a little upset that zugwat's OUTRAGEOUSness is being overshadowed by INSG's inability to understand math.

Zuwat, you really come off as an egocentric douche. WAHHH this guy wants me to play by the rules I agreed to ahead of time after I blew him off for weeks.
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Old 04-28-2009, 04:40 PM   #138
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GH2mS5Wm7N0
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Old 04-28-2009, 04:42 PM   #139
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

and fwiw, Zugwat is a nice guy. This whole thing just sounds like a big misunderstanding on both parts, as I doubt zug even realized he had put off the match as many times as he had. Don't sweat it INSG.
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Old 04-28-2009, 04:47 PM   #140
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

TIEBREAKERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
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Old 04-28-2009, 04:55 PM   #141
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

sometimes i wonder why i read 2p2 all day then i come across OUTRAAAAAGEOUS threads like this and it all makes sense!
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Old 04-28-2009, 04:56 PM   #142
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

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Originally Posted by freemoney View Post
its wrong bc a 3k to 1k stack wins 75% of the time not 66% so before u brag about an analogy that takes an idiot to set up get the 4th grade level math right.
Perhaps my analogy should have contained a 20 sided dice. That would have made it simpler.

3999 stack wins one in 4000 times amirite.
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Old 04-28-2009, 05:18 PM   #143
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

INSG,
Are you still willing to prop bet on whether or not you're right here? What's the max you're willing to bet (I assume at 1:1)?

I have a good way to settle this. I can have a programmer simulate the tourneys a large number of times (say 50k simulations or something), and we can see who's right.
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Old 04-28-2009, 05:23 PM   #144
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

ok I admit that I was wrong in saying imnotsogood is scum for his actions, and I do apologize for that. I was just befuddled that he wouldn't pause when I agreed he'd pick anytime in the next week to resume. I was only left to believe that imnotsogood thought he had an added edge since he knew i wanted to go to sleep, or that he thought maybe if he refused to pause I'd end up forfeiting.

also the first time we played I was on a train and had to stop when I reached my destination. Since then I was traveling and in live tournaments, and had a lot going on to where finishing a 1k match for a 2+2 tournament just wasn't on the top of my mind. Citizen james is right in that I had no idea how much imnotsogood felt I was blowing him off. He imed me whenver we were both on, and most of the time and as a result, most of the time I couldn't play since i was just on briefly in between meals or tournament days or whatever. In no way was I in the mindset of "im a highstakes player were playing on my schedule". When he said i blew him off to play other stuff, it was one specific time right after I busted 17th in san remo in a fashion i felt i kind of donked off the tournamnet and was very tilted, the last thing i wanted to do was play a 200bb freezeout for essentially no money. Instead i 4 tabled 50 - 100 hu and he wanted me to add a table for the msnl match at the same time and i didnt want to do that. I had to stop playing the session though because the internet was too ****y because Italy, or rather Europe in general doesnt believe in internet, i thought Id give the stars sng a try since stars is generally better connection. We loaded it up and as soon as it loaded i got disconnected and couldnt get back on and went to sleep.

Its posisble I was in the wrong but not trying to contact you, have a friend im you, to tell you i couldnt play although I do belive we spoke over aim the very next day and i just didnt realize it was such a big deal. There has been a lot going on this past 2 weeks and our match just wasn't at the forefront of my thoughts. I didnt realize the deadline, or how serious your time restrictions were for your finals.

the other session we played for like 3 hours at least and i told him at the beginning i didnt want to stay up past 5 - 6 a.m. I also was down 70k that day not saying thats entirely relevent but that was the mindset i was in at the time. This is also not necesarily relevent but when i had him down to like 1300 chips I flatted his 3 bet with AA and timed out folded thinking of a raise size on like a J95 two hearts board because i had no timebank. But you can imagine how tilted that made me, coupled with it being 6 a.m. i played for maybe 20 minutes more and then asked to pause and said i really couldnt play anymore.

We probably played like 15 - 20 hours total between all the sessions which is a lot for one tabeling.

also i wasn't trying to be arrogant when i offered him a "poker lesson", i was just trying to come up with any incentives that convince him to pause, so i offered him a free coaching session but he seemed to take offense to that offer although non was intended at all. then tried offering straight up money 500 - 1k cuz i figured with the equity id gain by going to sleep it would be worth it


Again this thread was solely created off that fact that I was desperate to go to sleep last night, and didnt know what else to do. I was still playing at the time with no timebank so i didnt really have time to type out my full side of the story, or think of a more fitting thread title...

Last edited by Zugwat; 04-28-2009 at 05:46 PM.
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Old 04-28-2009, 05:23 PM   #145
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

I was there first Noah
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Old 04-28-2009, 05:38 PM   #146
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
Originally Posted by vancouverspecial View Post
Pretty sure INSG is trying to use math to describe momentum/confidence.
You're probably right, but he's failing in an epicly befuddled fashion.

As an aside, I can think of a circumstance where you might prefer a particular order for independent events: If you have to win both, there's some value in playing a 50:50 before a 75:25, as playing the 50:50 first minimizes the expected average amount of time you waste playing the tournament for those times you don't win.
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Old 04-28-2009, 05:50 PM   #147
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

What a long ****ing thread.

In regards to the maths, this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by skier_5 View Post
the two events are completely independent (apart from emotions or w/e). you have to play the 2k-2k match anyways and if you lose that one you still lose - whether you are in the one where you have a chip lead or not.
And I'm good at maths!!!

Seriously, though. I haven't read all of ImNotSoGood's maths since this thread is so ****ing long, but it's pretty simple.

Each SNG you play is a DIFFERENT one from the other, yes.
The outcome of EITHER is NOT affected by the OTHER.
You are dealt TWO cards on BOTH SNGs and they DON'T affect one another.
Therefore it doesn't matter, apart from emotionally perhaps, whether to finish one and play the other one after, or play them both at the same time.

Your EV does not change.

Also, you flatted a standard sized 4-bet of mine before with a one-gapped sooted hands with undercards to my KK and cracked it! So, damn you.
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Old 04-28-2009, 06:26 PM   #148
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Zugwat:

Most of Europe has sick good Internet, Italy is not in that category though
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Old 04-28-2009, 06:55 PM   #149
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

oh gahd this thread put me on tilt
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Old 04-28-2009, 07:28 PM   #150
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Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

I don't have anything relevant to add, but..

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