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04-28-2009, 05:02 AM   #51
AJFenix
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,869
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Big_Jim Some math: Assumptions Ignoring the buy in for the game (\$5 or wtv) Stacks represent % chance of winning. You start down 0-1 with a 3:1 chip lead Your chances for a victory are 75% * 50% = 37.5% Just for the heck of it, let's assume that you play the game where you have even chips first, before you resume the match with a 3:1 lead. 50% * 75% = 37.5% Please explain to me what I'm missing here, or how the math changes when the matches are being played simultaneously. I guess this is what I don't see.
Heh, yeah.

04-28-2009, 05:04 AM   #52
AJFenix
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,869
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
 .75= CHANCE YOU WILL PLAY W/ THE 2K-2K STACK AS TIEBREAKER(CHANCE I OF 3K-1K STACK WINNING) .25 = CHANCE YOU WILL PLAY W/ THE 3K-1K STACK AS TIEBREAKER
Why does putting a "tiebreaker" label on the second table left make any difference? You still have to win both lol

04-28-2009, 05:04 AM   #53
ImNotSoGood

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Tilted 5 Bet Bluffing
Posts: 977
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
 Originally Posted by TronSpecial well i was gonna take imnotsogoods side on this. now i am left wondering how he got this far in the tournament in the first place.
Heads up, and why in particular are you wondering this?

04-28-2009, 05:05 AM   #54
DrGiggy
grinder

Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 658
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ImNotSoGood Sure, When you play 2 matches at the same time in hopes of one win you combine the tables(in theory) as if they were one, since only one win/loss is of concern @ this point. .625 x {(.75).50+(.25).75} = .3516 .75= CHANCE YOU WILL PLAY W/ THE 2K-2K STACK AS TIEBREAKER(CHANCE I OF 3K-1K STACK WINNING) .25 = CHANCE YOU WILL PLAY W/ THE 3K-1K STACK AS TIEBREAKER not sure if I calculated speed of win properly in order to predict which stack is used in tiebreaker, but it seems relatively close to what it should be.
gnuhhhh stop it

 04-28-2009, 05:07 AM #55 Zergum journeyman   Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: vegas Posts: 303 Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS ImNotSoGoodAtMaths.
 04-28-2009, 05:11 AM #56 muttiah Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 24,369 Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS lolol. Amazing thread
04-28-2009, 05:14 AM   #57
ImNotSoGood

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Tilted 5 Bet Bluffing
Posts: 977
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
 Originally Posted by AJFenix Why does putting a "tiebreaker" label on the second table left make any difference? You still have to win both lol
Its not the label, its the fact that when you are 0-1 you cannot play
your "next two tables" right away. Until you tie, you are playing for a possible "ONE" win.

You are dealt 50% of your hands from Deck A, 3k-1k Stacks

You are dealt 50% of your hands from Deck B, Table with 2k-2k Stacks

Until you get that one win at either table, you are playing a combo of both tables, and thus an avg of their win %.

Once you tie up, the remaining table just becomes the tiebreaker.

The problem is, the 3k-1k stack will be winning more quickly and more readily than the 2k-2k stack, which leaves us with the inferior stack in the tiebreaker more often than not.

 04-28-2009, 05:18 AM #58 muttiah Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 24,369 Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS Fail
04-28-2009, 05:19 AM   #59
ImNotSoGood

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Tilted 5 Bet Bluffing
Posts: 977
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Isura Fail
Correct me you lowlife

 04-28-2009, 05:20 AM #60 muttiah Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 24,369 Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS You were already corrected idiot.
04-28-2009, 05:23 AM   #61
LuckyfishZ
veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 2,361
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Zergum ImNotSoGoodAtMaths.
hahaha

 04-28-2009, 05:25 AM #62 billybeartku Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Taipei, Taiwan. it ain't China yo! Posts: 5,830 Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS msnl threads have never been this exciting to me as this one did to me.
04-28-2009, 05:29 AM   #63
ImNotSoGood

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Tilted 5 Bet Bluffing
Posts: 977
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Zugwat i just wanna say that making the thread wasnt about complaining about this dumb petty situation i was just getting desperate as I legeitatly could of ended up staying the entire night playing the damn match and i was getting desperate and all i wantedd to do was get some sleep, was doing anything i could that might convince imnotsogood to let it pause either way theres not much sense in even arguing this anymore
You are pathetic, and low for slandering my name for your own benefit. I guess you proved exactly what I was saying about your character. You can't just call someone scum and hope they 4get.

And lol @ u offering me a poker lesson as a compromise. Who the hell pays for your lessons, @ HUNLHE ? Drop some names, I'd like to know who to sit w/

04-28-2009, 05:43 AM   #64
ImNotSoGood

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Tilted 5 Bet Bluffing
Posts: 977
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Isura You were already corrected idiot.
How much do you wanna prop bet that you are wrong?

(Meaning - It's not .5 x .75 = .375)

 04-28-2009, 05:55 AM #65 charder30 formerly known as zj123     Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: mArYlAnD Posts: 27,375 Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS hof thread
 04-28-2009, 06:01 AM #66 billybeartku Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Taipei, Taiwan. it ain't China yo! Posts: 5,830 Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS i haven't seen any stars rated on this thread yet...i anticipated 5 stars.
 04-28-2009, 06:03 AM #67 Bakes Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 15,945 Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS lol nice math ImNotSoGood, wasn't there a point where you talked a lot of **** to me? dont quit poker you moron
04-28-2009, 06:11 AM   #68
djj6835
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 10,141
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ImNotSoGood Its not the label, its the fact that when you are 0-1 you cannot play your "next two tables" right away. Until you tie, you are playing for a possible "ONE" win. You are dealt 50% of your hands from Deck A, 3k-1k Stacks You are dealt 50% of your hands from Deck B, Table with 2k-2k Stacks Until you get that one win at either table, you are playing a combo of both tables, and thus an avg of their win %. Once you tie up, the remaining table just becomes the tiebreaker. The problem is, the 3k-1k stack will be winning more quickly and more readily than the 2k-2k stack, which leaves us with the inferior stack in the tiebreaker more often than not.
This is the part I don't understand. Why are you more likely to have the inferior stack at the "tiebreaker"? If you win the 3k-1k one then the 2k-2k is your tiebreaker. Why is it suddenly something other than 2k-2k just because you've been playing it during the 3k-1k one? The only way this is true is if you think the skill level isn't even in which case that would be factored into 0.5*0.75 calc too so yes you're expectation is less than that but it has nothing to do with adding the other table.

04-28-2009, 06:17 AM   #69
ImNotSoGood

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Tilted 5 Bet Bluffing
Posts: 977
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
 Originally Posted by djj6835 This is the part I don't understand. Why are you more likely to have the inferior stack at the "tiebreaker"? If you win the 3k-1k one then the 2k-2k is your tiebreaker. Why is it suddenly something other than 2k-2k just because you've been playing it during the 3k-1k one? The only way this is true is if you think the skill level isn't even in which case that would be factored into 0.5*0.75 calc too so yes you're expectation is less than that but it has nothing to do with adding the other table.

When you're 2 tabling while still 0-1, your 3k-1k table is likely to win before the 2k-2k table for obvious reasons.

If you win the 3k-1k table, you are left with the 2k-2k table as your " tiebreaker "

By inferior i mean: 2k Chips(2k Starting) < inferior < 3k Chips(2k Starting)

 04-28-2009, 06:22 AM #70 tommyhawkers adept     Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 808 Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS i played him too. he ran v goot, i cant win as a fav obv. but he also told me he didnt wanna begin 3rd table until the 2nd was finished and i was like lol wat why. he tried to explain, i didnt understand but w/e i played along. also, i find it pretty amazing that imnotsogood made it as far as he did. congrats i guess
04-28-2009, 06:22 AM   #71
ImNotSoGood

Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Tilted 5 Bet Bluffing
Posts: 977
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Bakes lol nice math ImNotSoGood, wasn't there a point where you talked a lot of **** to me? dont quit poker you moron
If i talked **** to you it was probably only in retaliation, people do like to hate on me, less now than b4 at least.

And why would i quit poker?

 04-28-2009, 06:22 AM #72 d2themfi veteran   Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 3,263 Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS is this the part of the thread where stealthmunk comes in and berates imnotsogood for being an idiot, or does that come later
04-28-2009, 06:24 AM   #73
AJFenix
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,869
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
 When you're 2 tabling while still 0-1, your 3k-1k table is likely to win before the 2k-2k table for obvious reasons. If you win the 3k-1k table, you are left with the 2k-2k table as your " tiebreaker " By inferior i mean: 2k Chips(2k Starting) < inferior < 3k Chips(2k Starting)
Dude, you have to win BOTH either way, the two possible outcomes are you win both OR you lose the match, who cares if you win the 2k-2k first or the other one, the remaining is still left to be dealt with with the same amount of chips

The "your 3k-1k table is likely to win before the 2k-2k table for obvious reasons" statement implies that you're not realizing that sometimes you LOSE one before anything happens and therefor lose the match

04-28-2009, 06:26 AM   #74
djj6835
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 10,141
Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ImNotSoGood When you're 2 tabling while still 0-1, your 3k-1k table is likely to win before the 2k-2k table for obvious reasons. If you win the 3k-1k table, you are left with the 2k-2k table as your " tiebreaker " By inferior i mean: 2k Chips(2k Starting) < inferior < 3k Chips(2k Starting)
Ok so pretend instead of playing both at once you stop the 3k-1k and start a 2k-2k. Now if you win that one you start up the 3k-1k. Now your tiebreaker is the 3k-1k. How does that change your expectation at all? It's still 0.5 for going to the tiebreaker and then 0.75 for winning the tiebreaker instead of 0.75 for going to the tiebreaker and 0.5 for winning. Why does the order matter at all?

 04-28-2009, 06:28 AM #75 TronSpecial veteran   Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,176 Re: ImNotSoGood is being OUTRAGEOUS lol if you only 1 table then and win the one you are 3k-1k in then guess what happens... the tiebreaker is 2k-2k.

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