Quote:
Originally Posted by ImNotSoGood
Sure,
When you play 2 matches at the same time in hopes of one win you combine the tables(in theory) as if they were one, since only one win/loss is of concern @ this point.
.625 x {(.75).50+(.25).75} = .3516
.75= CHANCE YOU WILL PLAY W/ THE 2K-2K STACK AS TIEBREAKER(CHANCE I OF 3K-1K STACK WINNING)
.25 = CHANCE YOU WILL PLAY W/ THE 3K-1K STACK AS TIEBREAKER
not sure if I calculated speed of win properly in order to predict which stack is used in tiebreaker, but it seems relatively close to what it should be.
Here's where I believe you made your calculation error. It is generally "standard" to assume that your odds of winning are proportional to the number of chips you have. You used this to calculate the .625. However, if you are going to use the "std" assumption, you have to be consistent. So the odds of you winning and playing w/ the 2K-2K stack as teh tiebreaker should be .6 (because you are concerned about which of the two games will end first, not what the odds of the 3K-1K game are). so the correct equation is:
.625 x {(.6).50+(.4).75} = .375
Which is basically what everyone's been telling you. If you don't make the "standard" assumption about odds of winning (like assume the odds of winning a 3-1 is 90% instead of 75%), then you would get a different left number than .625. But I don't think this is what you intended.
Anyway, glad to see everyone made up and everything's fine.