Oh yeah, and by the way, that's one of the *better* flops for ATC.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

989,010 games 0.089 secs 11,112,471 games/sec

Board: 8c 7d 8d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.728% 56.73% 00.00% 561033 13.50 { 8h8s, 7c7h, 7c7s, 7h7s, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ah8h, As8s, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kh8h, Ks8s, Kd6d, Kd5d, Kd4d, Kd3d, Kd2d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, Qh8h, Qs8s, Qd6d, Qd5d, Qd4d, Qd3d, Qd2d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jh8h, Js8s, Jd6d, Jd5d, Jd4d, Jd3d, Jd2d, T9s, Th8h, Ts8s, Td6d, Td5d, Td4d, Td3d, Td2d, 9h8h, 9s8s, 96s, 9d5d, 9d4d, 9d3d, 9d2d, 8h7h, 8s7s, 8h6h, 8s6s, 8h5h, 8s5s, 8h4h, 8s4s, 8h3h, 8s3s, 8h2h, 8s2s, 65s, 6d4d, 6d3d, 6d2d, 5d4d, 5d3d, 5d2d, 4d3d, 4d2d, 3d2d, Ac8h, Ac8s, Ad8h, Ad8s, Ah8s, As8h, Kc8h, Kc8s, Kd8h, Kd8s, Kh8s, Ks8h, Qc8h, Qc8s, Qd8h, Qd8s, Qh8s, Qs8h, Jc8h, Jc8s, Jd8h, Jd8s, Jh8s, Js8h, T9o, Tc8h, Tc8s, Td8h, Td8s, Th8s, Ts8h, 9c8h, 9c8s, 9d8h, 9d8s, 9h8s, 9s8h, 96o, 8c7h, 8c7s, 8d7h, 8d7s, 8h7s, 8s7h, 8c6h, 8c6s, 8d6h, 8d6s, 8h6s, 8s6h, 8c5h, 8c5s, 8d5h, 8d5s, 8h5s, 8s5h, 8c4h, 8c4s, 8d4h, 8d4s, 8h4s, 8s4h, 8c3h, 8c3s, 8d3h, 8d3s, 8h3s, 8s3h, 8c2h, 8c2s, 8d2h, 8d2s, 8h2s, 8s2h, 65o }
Hand 1: 43.272% 43.27% 00.00% 427950 13.50 { AA }


That's 15%, bittttttttch whoooooo

Damn, you people are patient.
Someone should have said this earlier. Thanks, Nixon.
I didn't mean to sound arrogant btw, just looking for answers.
Now I see the original problem.
AA can't shove 100BB deep because ATC is deep enough to call only when he has AA beat OTF and be +EV.
My immediate thoughts are there is no obvious answer, but that if there were to be a winning fixed strategy for either side, AA is more likely to have it. Also, it would have to be lots of games for a convincing win.

Interesting: What if, for example Board comes AdKdQd, AA raises to 10BB or whatever as usual. ATC shoves...AA folds? Calls?
Board texture has to be a key factor here.

Ok, you win.

On one of the best possible flops for ATC, you can be ahead.

fml why didn't I just use 987sss, so much easier

Pretty interesting. Can you guys do it in a chatroom on AIM so people can watch? Or maybe do it privately and then copy/paste hands into a public chatroom so there's no "call call he's bluffing"

You probably have to clarify 10BB or whatever, because I'm not sure betting so big with any hand would be a good idea. He knows we have top set here, he's not calling us with KK.

If you wanted to bet to protect against draws, you only have to bet a lot smaller, and in which case calling the shove would be a huge risk. So AA bets 1.5BB's, 2.5BB's invested, still need to call 97.5BB's to win around 30% of the pot when behind (and fill up) and probably only 60% of the time when ahead (he's likely got a diamond or better when he's bluffing). He would have to be bluffing this flop quite a bit to make this a call.

It would be more interesting if XX raises AA's flop bet smaller. We know his range would be draws and hands that beat us (65% of the time that we don't fill up anyway), but if we assume he does it with any diamond, we might find ourselves calling too often if he only raises with combo draws and made straights+. And since it's near impossible to profitably raise (I think), we'll let him hit his outs and take the pot a decent % of the time.

I like this too, TNixon gets dealt QQ, flop comes AQ4r, TNixon instamucks middle set to a minbet in a limped pot, lol. It would be interesting posting a hand like that in a forum without explaining the game was AA vs random. Wow, what a read.

Game in progress...TNixon with a 44bb lead with about 100 hands down. He had some big catches early (lol firsthandaments), but I just had a sick "hold" on a K87sss with AsAx vs. his K8 to stay alive in the match. 3 100bb pots on the flop, will explain why later.

Whee I love this game, I've thought about it quite a bit before. In fact, one of my first threads on 2+2 was about more or less the same game.

I think you make a quite a bit of progress playing around on StoxEV for this. I might try so myself.

However, I do think the suits of the AA should be fixed. It sort of defeats the purpose to have 99% clairvoyance, isn't it most interesting when there's zero ambiguity?

Also, I'd like to play this, for fun or whatever.

Game is over, TNixon won. Sorry for the people who bet on me, we ended up having a very high variance game. He luckboxed early and then made a gigantic call to win the match (mathematically, he didn't realize it for a while, an absolutely sick ending which I will talk about). A call I think is terrible unless he had reads and considering I'm a tellbox and he's so smart it's very possible, although I planned for the situation and to do the same thing whether I had it or not. More to come.

BIIIIIIIIIIIIIIG TIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIP!

Srsly, TNixon was very generous to the dealer (me).

Not a lot of time right now, but I do want to say a couple things.

First of all, 300 hands isn't nearly enough. Over that short of a run, it's a pure variance-fest, that I'm pretty sure dwarfs any advantage that one side has over the other. Especially given end-game weirdness if one side gets a sizable lead.

I definitely ran good to win. Well, that and made one really sick call that I cannot justify in any way other than based on how the game had been going, I felt like in that particular spot, he was bluffing 100% of the time. 5flush board, he has AA, so obviously he has the nut flush 50% of the time. If he's bluffing 100% of the time (which I felt very strongly was true, but if he just rolled his die to determine whether to bluff or not then obviously my call is horrible and I got lucky), then obviously I can call, although even then it's thin.

Probably thin enough that I should probably just fold anyway. But yeah, I'm a donk.

Anyway, second point is that I'm fairly convinced AA actually has an advantage, but that feeling is based on the fact that I tried *really* hard to come up with optimal bluffing frequencies that would show me being +EV in various situations, and failed miserably. Every different situation I tried had me needing a lot more actual equity than I could have most of the time, except for a very small number of board types, where you can actually come up with a wide enough range of cards that can actually have an overall advantage.

But yeah, I pretty much failed at my pathetic attempts to figure out how to really play the game, although I did make pretty big strides in the right direction IMO between the first and the second session. Despite being known as something of a math guy, I really suck at actually doing the math. I'm really a computer guy, not a math guy, and I haven't solved this kind of problem by computer before, so I didn't really know where to start.

I do think the game has a *lot* to say about bluffing frequencies though, even if I couldn't figure out the numbers I was supposed to use. I'll go into more detail about what I was doing and why in the next day or two.

Couldn't have done it at all without somebody willing to be a button pushbot.

And yes, the ending was *very* sick. I'll let mers tell the story though. lol

OK, recap time. Very first hand of the game, ATC bets 4 on a K97cc flop. I know TNixon's plan going into this is to overbet barrel, but I have a bit of a surprise for him - he really can't do it very much at all on these types of flops (i.e. only set/two pair possible), because his range that is better than AA is just 2.7% of hands. This is lovely, because it takes away a prime flop for him to barrel on and put me in -EV spots (if he does it optimally, my decision between call and fold will have the same expected value btw, but that's a topic for later). Anyway, I shove over the bet, he shows up with K9 and holds, and I'm 100 in the hole.

100 in the hole with 240 hands left, I need to be very "aggressive" and increase variance. That means doing things like openshoving those K97cc flops OOP - 97.3% of the time I win 1 bb, and the play actually has -0.71bb in EV since I actually have about 25% equity when called, which is fantastic considering the variance I'm introducing. Think about it this way - down 10 bbs with 25 hands left, AA is actually a significant favorite to win. The odds of ATC going 0-fer on the 50 of these flops I'll get on average the rest of the way are actually about 1 in 4, which is fantastic considering the other 3/4 of the time I get a 1 in 4 chance of a double up. That's close to a coin flip to get back in the match. I can promise you I am not a coin flip to run at .4 bb/hand with ATC controlling the action.

I play pretty well from then on in and get it back to t+60 24 hands in we pick up the 7th board of these 2.7% flops (that being the % ATC can call a shove with). He had bet a couple of the others and I had shoved one and folded the other. It's a J96ss or something like that, and I have the As, so when called by two pair I actually have 30% equity. He overbets out, I shove (still very +EV unless he immediately cut back his betting range a ton), run into JJ. The odds of him getting two 2.7%ers in the first 7 boards like that are 77 to 1.

So I'm down 160 with like 220 hands to go. If TNixon folds out the match, it's worth -165 to me. I can no longer fold, and I simply pray that he hasn't done the math. Luckily, he hasn't seemed to. I start battling back and make a decent little run. Then I pick up POCKET ACES with the ace of spades on a K86sss flop. I check shove, he tank calls with K8, I'm a very slight favorite and hold up (river Qs after sejje's drumroll). This is obviously a very bad call in a game to 300 hands but whatever I made stupid errors too.

So I have new life, and do very well with it imo, getting the lead back down to 25 over a long stretch of hands (only about 130 left now). Then I pick up POCKET ACES without the ace of spades on another monotone spade flop. I c/c a flop bet because if another spade comes he's ****ed, for reasons I'll explain shortly. Turn comes a spade, checked through. I openshove river.

Openshoving river with my entire range here, save for AA without the ace of spades a small percentage of the time, makes it so that he has to fold no matter what, because it's guaranteed to be -EV for him. If he gets curious, great, I know I have an edge. My plan was to shove quickly on all 4flush boards on the river except for when I didn't have the flush, rolled a die next to me, and it came up 6. The die came 4, I fistpump shoved, and TNixon snap called. Upon thinking about it more, my decision to make my line seem bluffy with my entire range to make him make a call that was more -EV than a fold and standardize it was a mistake. I shouldn't have "standardized" when the first time he ever sees this action he's going to see it as bluffy and call. Regrets. I can only wish I had the correct ace on a fourflush board in the match.

From there I'm down 120 with 120 hands to go and mathematically eliminated if he folds out. TNixon doesn't realize this, thinks I'm on tilt by openshoving every flop, and we get about 30 hands in of me winning every hand while he waits for a hand to call me with before finally, on a Q74 flop or something like that, when it's his turn to act OOP, he says wait a minute. Let me check something. Can I fold to victory? He realizes that he can, and the match is over.

Sejje is going crazy, and points out the sickest thing: TNixon's hand. It's 74. Two pair. He hadn't looked yet. I say fml, we run the rabbit cam, AA would have sucked out. FML. One hand later and I'd be back to even and a massive favorite in the match with the limited hands left.

Anyway. I hope I don't sound too bitter. I had a blast playing and TNixon was a great guy to play against. He played really well and really improved upon his bluffing frequencies and betsizing in this second session. We both actually think now that AA has a slight edge. He made a sick read on the fourflush board and to be absolutely clear I give him all the credit in the world for learning this game really well and outclassing me in a lot of spots.

I'll come back in a couple of days to comment on the correct strategy for this game, what I've learned about barreling through it, and lots of other stuff, but for now, **** this game, ****ing rigged piece of ****.

Just read that over and it sounds pretty dickish sound I'd like to say a few more things about TNixon outclassing me in spots.

He did a very good job of establishing a super strong 2-3barrelling range and then widening it up as the game progressed. He also fooled me by switching up a timing tell he realized that I had picked up on and getting me to fold a lot thinking I had a read that he was strong when he bet fast on certain boards. He also picked up very quickly to my strategy of shoving over bets on J96xx boards and stopped betting them within a couple dozen hands, a positive outcome for me, but definitely not the most positive. I don't think he understood the intricacies of strategy from the AA point of view, but he definitely did a good amount of work on the ATC perspective and played that part well. Hats off, you earned it.

ty so much merse, tnixon, sejje, OP, and others for a very cool thread

moar content coming yay!

Ok, but still, if flop is AKQddd, will AA call a small 3-bet even if he is behind to a straight or a flush due to implied odds of hitting full house? Also include a few bluffs in calc. to balance ATC's range

e.g.
AA (100BB)
ATC (100BB)

Flop (2BB)
AdKdQd

AA bets 3BB, Hero raises to 10BB, AA?

i.e. more intelligent person wins...?

how the **** can you have implied odds when your hand is faceup and villain doesnt have you beat and is drawing to 0 or 1 outs?

you don't just have 7 'outs' on the turn if you call. You might shut down a bluff from ATC depending on ATC's bluffing % on flops like these. You might even decide to call or raise a turn bet depending on how often he double-barrel bluffs.

Also, a flush draw is a big part of his range which gives him odds to call, but which we do, in fact, beat. I think

Well they only talked about this regarding static games (chap.19), and all the non-static games they solve in chap.20 are FL games. It's indeed not clear at all that geometric growth of the pot remains true in this case.

For any board, if both players are playing optimally AA should always be indifferent to folding or continuing here. AA should be folding some proportion of the time so that ATC is indifferent to making his weakest semibluff, which combined with value raises should make AA indifferent to folding.

I don't understand. Simpler terms plz?
Note that ATC doesn't always raise to 10BB on this board.