I'd like to discuss the Math and the Cost of Mistake issue in the next scenario:
Let's round up, that villain has to bluff 42% of the time for us to break-even on a river call.
Let's assume that we KNOW FOR FACT that he is bluffing exactly 45%, so our call brings us profit by margin of 3%. Is my calculation in $ correct: $38.544
$192.8 + $546 + $546 = $1284.8
1% = $12.848, so 3% = $38.544
2) IRL we are not Nostradamuses, but let's assume that villain's bluffing frequency is between 40% and 45%. Would the call be correct? If we are correct, we will make 0.5% profit = $6.424 in the long run (disregard rake). Does this worth it at all, given variance/bloated pot with overbet. Now let's get to reality, we can be wrong in our estimations IRL - how much this mistake could cost us in the long run? also to note, if he will show us BETTER hand over 50% of the time and having a good run, we will not have extra-advantage of our call for information, but i guess it balances by the factor, that villain will see that we are completely capable of making huge hero call.
So if it is a mistake to make a call under those circumstances, at what % margin it becomes somewhat a call.
Cheers!