Quote:
Originally Posted by PureDiesel
Sry for not beeing specific. Ok, here it is:
I have a value hand on the river, but becauseof the board it's not that strong. Villain will have 66.6% of better hands that he looks me up with and 33.3% of worse hands as bluffcatchers that he won't fold. Ofc, besides that there are hands he is going to fold that are out of this range, or he might fold hands from this range some of the time obviously. SO if we bet full pot size, we are losing with this size, but will be breaking-even or above with 1/2 pot size bet then?
If he's folding the exact same % regardless of your bet size - then betting more (when you expect to lose more often than win when called) has a lesser EV.
The point is full size pot bets fold out a larger range (and therefore a higher %) of villains' hands - as compared to a 1/2 pot sized bet. So we make more money on his folds, and we lose more on the other hand because our bet has a -EV when we are called.
Plus if the villain is folding a greater range of hands then his calling range will win more often, so the bigger better has a greater -EV still.