Do you think villain is folding his Ax hands to the 2/3 flop bet ?
I was thinking he might stick around with most suited broadways with BDFD on the flop and AQo,AKo. I think villain would maybe fold AJo to the flop bet.
my questions is, does he fold the following to the 2/3 pot flop bet:
- suited broadways with BDFD?
- AJ,AQ,AK?
- 44-88?
On the turn I think villain is likely folding out his 44-88 besides perhaps 55 because its OESD. I also think if villain hasn't folded out his over-cards yet he is likely to do so with the ones that do not have a flush-draw. Here's a picture of villains turn calling range I have made up.
(you could probrably exclude some of the best PP's but I kept them in because sometimes players have them. Maybe I should weight them to 25% or so?)
If villain's range is similar to the one I have assigned then when he calls his range has 57% versus our 42% before the river comes.
On the river if we bet and villain puts us on a strong range... he may fold out some of his top pairs like T9s,J9s,Q9s (if they are in his range).
If we weight villains overpairs to only call/call flop and turn to 30% of the time , on the river when we triple barrel villains range
might be folding his top pairs besides A9 and K9 and calling with everything better, villains calling range has 70% equity versus our hands 30%. (screenshot below)
villains over-cards and weak pairs on the river combined can make up around 25% of his range, if he can turn 55, into a bluff and bluff his missed FD's and overcards then check calling may be good play. if he cannot check/folding is probrably better.
Last edited by Donkeybets; 09-23-2021 at 08:04 PM.