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How Many Hands? How Many Hands?
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05-28-2008 , 11:36 AM
#1
jawal37
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I've read several posts lately about how many hands you need to play to get a good estimate of your long run win rate. I've seen some people say that 20,000 hands will give you a good estimate but others say that after 100,000 hands you will only be within 2 bb/100 of your true win rate. What I have never seen is any math to back this up. Can anyone post a link that shows the math behind this logic and gives a definitive answer? Or can anyone help me walk through the required math to figure it out?

Thanks
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05-28-2008 , 11:41 AM
#2
hzon
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If you play around with this applet, you can get a feel for it:

http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/win.htm
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05-28-2008 , 01:15 PM
#3
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groove1984
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That's an interesting little program. Although it was funny how the margin for error got wider once I went over 100k hands. A bug?
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05-28-2008 , 01:16 PM
#4
hackers238
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Woah, sweet link. I have to wait till I'm home to look up my standard deviation...
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05-28-2008 , 01:16 PM
#5
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groove1984
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Quote:
Originally Posted by groove1984
That's an interesting little program. Although it was funny how the margin for error got wider once I went over 100k hands. A bug?
Nope silly me, I was reading it completely wrong.
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05-28-2008 , 01:18 PM
#6
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groove1984
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It's kinda scary that I could still be a -1.5ptbb/100 loser!
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05-28-2008 , 02:05 PM
#7
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Ronfar
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This thread really helped me when I was asking similar questions, and goes into quite a bit of detail on the math involved.

With respect to the numbers thrown around in in the OP, 20k hands will definitely not necessarily give you a good estimate. 100k probably won't quite end up giving you a +-2ptBB/100 95% confidence interval (depends on your SD, of course), but you'll be getting in the ballpark at the very least.
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05-28-2008 , 02:08 PM
#8
hackers238
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Winrate's overrated. Post hands, discuss, and once you know every play you're making is good and why, you will know you're good. Easy game.
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05-29-2008 , 12:49 AM
#9
jawal37
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I think I'm being an idiot here - can someone tell me where to find my standard deviation in PokerTracker (is that an output that it gives you?)

EDIT - Nevermind, I found it
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