I am curious how winrates decrease as people move up. Of course it's impossible to state accurately but I would be interested to hear your views.

At 6 max I play at nl200 and my winrate is 4.3ptbb. Assuming that is my true winrate at nl200 which is a big assumption what would my winrate be like if I was to start playing at nl400? nl600? nl1k? nl2k?

Would I even be a winner at nl1k?

What happened with your winrates?

There's no formula to calculate how a certain winrate would transit to the next level. You just have to be good enough to beat the next level. It's still the same game with the same ammount of bbs, only your average opponent will be better. A winrate at level x doesn't guarantee a winrate at level x+n.

Pretty sure nobody has a sample big enough for this to be accurate so it will just be guess work. I've been trying to get all the way through Mathematics of Poker and it has a few parts on true win rates and it is pretty astounding how many hands you can have in the sample and still have a winrate varying by like 3bb/100.

Anyways I would say every significant move up (1/2 to 2/4, 5/10 to 10/20) my winrate would drop significantly, but not cut in half. So like 4ptbb would become 2.5ptbb.

Try it and find out for yourself. Its totally player dependent, and although you would expect that ones winrate go down when they move up it may actually go up

Its really tough because you have to look at someone playing two different stakes simaltanously for a long period of time (and have 150k+ hands at each level). Most of the time people improve significantly over periods of 150k hands, so looking at someone who went up in stakes sequentially is not going to be a good indicator.

Looking at tableratings of people who did play two consecutive stakes seqentially (such as zero2lose and nanonoko), I would say winrates go down by about 1.5ptbb from 1/2 to 2/4, by about .5ptbb from 2/4 to 3/6, and by about 1ptbb from 3/6 to 5/10, and .5ptbb from 5/10 to 10/20 and 10/20 to 25/50 (!) This is all 6-max.

The small winrate decrease from 5/10 to 10/20 to 25/50 might have to do with the fact that winrates in general are very small at that level given how perfect the average player plays so its much harder to gain a ptbb of skill level at that level. But also I think it mainly means those jumps are easier skill level wise.

Unsuprisingly, the toughest jump is from 1/2 to 2/4.

I'd say .50/1 to 1/2 is harder than 1/2 to 2/4

serious? Maybe my skill level has gotten to the point where I cant see the difference in skill level between SS and micro NL games but while there was a jump it didnt seem nearly as big as the 1/2 to 2/4 jump.

Same. Up to 100 there wasn't that much extreme difference between the levels, 100 to 200 was a larger jump, but 200 to 400 was an entirely different world for me.

i found 1/2 to 2/4 harder than .5/1 to 1/2 and i made the transistion pretty recently.

i think it was more the money aspect of the fact that i now had $400 in front of me, which while is the same jump in relative terms, in actual $$$ its so much more to a broke student who's maxed out his overdraft (when i had my 1st $800 flip with AK v QQ my heart was pretty pounding)

It tilts me when these randoms come in saying they win a 4.3ptbb. My guess is they're either lying or not including all their database or don't have nearly a big enough sample size. 4.3ptbb is like 99th percentile at least for a 6 max player. I don't believe it for a second until I see a link to PTR and even then I'd be skeptical that it's someone else.

/rant

To answer your question I think 1/2 to a 2/4 is a pretty big jump; more than any other consecutive doubling of stakes. I'd say your winrate would cut in half making that jump but it takes an unrealistic amount of hands to determine a true winrate. Move up and find out for yourself.

kai, do u think that not a lot of regs are able to sustain 4.3ptbb/100 at 2/4 then?? 4.3ptbb/100 isnt that high...

6 max with sample size of like 300k hands I don't think there are more than a handful of the hundreds of regulars with over 4.3 at 1/2 NL.

do you not think thats probably because they move up though?? i dont think 4.3ptbb/100 is big at all for someone who is looking to improve their game. altho i think they would fall into the category of people who move up i guess

I don't know the exact reason maybe they move up I'm just saying it's not that easy and if you look on PTR I bet you can't find 10 players on FT/PS who met that criteria. There is an exponentially bigger difference between 4ptbb and 3 versus 3 and 2 versus 2 and 1 etc.

4.3ptbb = 2.15PTBB

+1 for the 1/2 - 2/4 jump being bigger than the .5/1 - 1/2. I don't think it's close either.

If this is true I meant 4.3PTBB. 2.15PTBB is def more achievable.

fyp.

4ptbb = 8bb

4BB = 8bb

BB = big bet

bb = big blind

ptbb = poker tracker big bets

So I was right to begin with.

4.3ptbb isnt that big. Im sure my true winrate at 2/4 6max or FR right now is probably 4ptbb or higher at this point.

After watching this Video about variance and playing around with uDevil's Result Calculator, like every single sample size mentioned in this thread looks pretty ridiculous to me.

lol. shore I believe you *weird facial gesture to indicate I'm being sarcastic*

you're prob one of those guys who posts hh from villians perspective and tell us how amazing "villian" plays poker and how he dates supermodels and makes them orgasm at will.

have you even ever read one of your msnl hh responses?

Dude cant you read I said assuming that is my true winrate, which I said to be a big assumption.

Well we know for sure you're not a 4ptbb winner if you lack basic comprehension skills.

bwaahahahahahahahahahaahahahaaaha

lol, seriously.

I think the people that think 4.3PTBB is really high play way too many tables or just aren't very good.