Did this stove relatively quickly but I think it is a decent range...regardless, we easily have the odds we need against a monkey like this to make this a relatively easy call.

Board: 4s 6c Th Js 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.652% 52.27% 00.38% 69 0.50 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 47.348% 46.97% 00.38% 62 0.50 { TT+, 66, 44, AJs-ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 75s, 53s, AJo-ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o, 98o, 75o, 53o }

So, here we're assuming villain pushed and we're going to have to call $100 to win $200. You get the $100 from (win - $ to call), not $ to call.

Unfortunately, I did make a pretty big error and that's that:
needs to be:

EV = equity * total pot - $ to call

Here's the simplification:

EV = x*(total pot - $ to call) + (1 - x)*-$ to call
EV = x*total pot - x*$ to call - $ to call + x*$ to call
EV = x*total pot - $ to call

So, again (correctly):

0 = x*+$334.50 - $133
334.50x = 133
x = 40%

So, we'd have to be good > 40% of the time. (It's just the pot odds.)

I don't think you can fold this when you've put almost half your stack in so far against a loose opponent. Sucks if he got there, but I think you have to commit to getting all-in. According to ideal SPR numbers (which I don't think you are a fan of, Pokey) we are golden here. We have about an SPR of 6-7 and we need 10 or less against a loose opponent. The only way I could lay this down is if I had a sick read on villian's river actions that told me my overpair was pretty much always beat.

ispiked... i have no idea what u r doing wrong and tbh i dont wanna figure it out because even tho i am a math major i am burned out from school right now and am too lazy. all i kno is something is way wrong.

he has KQ and can only win by bluffing. he'll have KQss one out of.. ten times? since KQss is one of ten possible KQ combinations, you'll win here 10% of the time. given your pot odds, this is a quadruple fist-pump phil-hellmuth-style insta-shove call the family tell them what you've won bob-barker style call.

A big part of this decision depends on your image. Have you recently been calling or folding river bets? If you have paid been paying everyone off than this is almost certainly never a bluff. If you have been folding it is possible he has 78 or 75 and believes there is a decent chance of getting you off your hand on the river. This is clearly not a pokerstove problem, as the opponent's range is dependent on a multitude of factors (such as his betting and bluffing tenancies, history, etc). Betting ranges on this river vary greatly between opponents- Some may be notorious river bluffers, some may thin value bet here, some may only bet flushes here. In general, I don't think AA or QQ are a large part of his opponent's range at all as he would have probably raised all in on at least the turn (or raised the flop) and would have probably 4-bet AA preflop. With 44,66 it is likely he would have gone for a raise at some point. It is very likely that the villain was floating the flop with 2 spades, then picked up a flush draw on the turn and called for implied odds. I think some back door junk is clearly his most likely hand and he is rarely bluffing here so I would definitely fold (unless I had some other important information).

i didnt expect this many people to say call ;(

i fold because despite hero representing a strong hand, villain called twice and then only bet out when a card that hits a drawing hand came. hero has been representing exactly what he has the whole way, and hero's represented range has not been influenced by the board texture (hero's rep'd hand hasn't changed) -- if villain wanted to bluff he most likely would have done so earlier in order to find out if hero has an overpair or not. villain is not going to be thinking to himself "im going to call him twice and THEN expect him to fold an overpair (for a half pot bet!)".

3 flaws in an otherwise really good explanation post:

1) You assume villain thinks

2) You ignore that villain could be bluffing a medium made hand...after all, he is a moron.

3) You advocate folding to a 50/25/3 100NL bat**** crazyman with a good OP

really easy fold, if your pissed when the rivercard hits, its because you got sucked out on, not because you might make the wrong decision.

read over all the posts again. still really think this is a fold, we need much better pot odds before calling this becomes a profitable play

to me this looks like a slowplayed set/two pair and not much else. yes villain is a maniac, but if he is a maniac, why wait til the river to bet? aggressive maniacs like this will bet draws a lot more often than they will c/c them. its not uncommon for maniacs who do not think to all of a sudden slow play their monsters cause they are now afraid of making their opponent fold. then on the river he does not want pokey to check behind so he throws in a value bet. if he is not a thinking player, he is not going to really care what pokey is representing.

i understand that pokey says villain is known to go too far with other crap hands but were those in 3b pots? i would venture to guess those pots he went too far in were a bit smaller than this one.


i fold here nearly every time and feel very good about it.

I am just going to assume without more reads that opponent is a total spewtard based on those stats. The only gross part is how deep it is, but that is not a scary river card at all. It makes some two pair hands and also one pair hands.

Not too many straights here but it sure looks like he could think we think he has a straight or flush. Not saying he's trying to level us but it's just a good card to turn your top pair hand into a bluff from his POV. It looks like you have basically what you are repping, don't think it matters a whole lot.

Ignoring how many bb's it is and just evaluating the river straight up, less than pot sized shove on a meh river against a maniac with an overpair. I call.

Villain is the reason you're at the table, you have 180 hands on him, and still your only read comes from stats?

meh the more i think about it the more i think im giving villain too much credit but it really depends on just how spewy he is. if he is uber spewy then i would consider a call more but i would want more of a definite read on his spewyness

af by street would be helpful. some of these guys are like 2/2/8 and i'd call in about three seconds

ur right, i filled in the gaps with info from my experiences w/ the avg 50/25/3 i've encountered at 100nl

Not in a million years. Aggro spewtard with a weired line in a 3bet pot vs a strong overpair on a moderately coordinate board that only needs to be good 1/4 of the time - autocall. And I do weight JT heavily, but it can easily be KQ, 78, 79 or something even more stupid.

yeah but otherwise this is an easy fold, for any hand you name i can at least name you 4 hands that we don´t. imo we aren´t even close to being good here 28% of the time.
and it is also a rediculous assumtion that villain is turning a 10 here into a bluff ever!

You need at least a thousand hands sample to even consider talking about streets AF

I also agree with folding without a special read here. I also think pokerstoving those situations is not the way to make the decision here. But IF you pokerstove you should think about the range that is putting in a PURE value bet.

Also, if you pokerstove, use different ranges for different streets. On the flop call he might have a wide range. On the turn the range changes, and few hands you pokerstoved for his preflop range do not apply anymore. THEN think about hands that would put out such a donk bet on the river and you pretty much have your decision.

against players who are playing a lot of their hands to the turn you really don't need THAT many hands to get an idea of if they're playing super aggro on a particular street. it may not be accurate but its better than nothing.

if it's not accurate, it's worse than nothing

[im a hardass ]

I'm not sure how fishy villain is, but it's quite obv Hero has an overpair a big part of the time and he's still betting out. He has hero beat at least 90% of the time imo. fold.

I think we better check the turn and bet/call the river. We have no more than one pair and I think there's a lot of crap in his range besides draws, I wouldn't worry too much about giving a free card myself.

Now we:

A) Keep the pot small when we are beat
B) Keep the hands we do beat in his range on the river
C) Get value from a lot more rivers since for all he knows we might have missed with AK/AQs

1)We've got an SPR of 7 with a big pair against a very loose opponent, that's pretty much exactly where you want to be.

2)If we raise to 18 as you suggested our SPR is a little under 6, not that huge a difference but may get villain to fold more hands.

3)Who in their right mind raises a 3.5BB open to 18BB?

You're making your EV calculations needlessly complicated and messy. The value for total pot you put in is wrong given the initial equation.

For this:
"EV = x*(total pot - $ to call) + (1 - x)*-$ to call"
to be correct, total pot has to be 467.5 and not 334.5 which you put in at the end.

The equation you want to use is:

EV = (how often you win x how much you win) - (how often you lose x how much you lose)

So for the breakeven point:

0 = Y(334.50) - (1 - Y)(133)

so Y = 28.45%

This isn't true. Any information carries a lot of weight because of bayes' theorem and conditional probability.

We're not going to completely decide decisions based on incomplete information but we can use it to sway decisions one way or the other.

Betting the turn >>>>>>>>> checking the turn.

We're very likely to have the best hand and villain will call with tons of worse hands.

The board is wet and we may give him free cards when our hand isn't a lock (I agree this part isn't a big deal though).

Why go for two streets of value when we can get three?