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01-29-2024 , 08:14 PM
#26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aner0
50bb EV loss comes from the fact that you have a value beater, he doesn't have 15% bluffs here from the very MDA that you showed
No it's 15weak.

Help me not suck in 4bet pots Quote
01-29-2024 , 08:18 PM
#27
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111 showdowns is a ridiculously sample to make a 50bb solver mistake... Also you're cherrypicking the sizing that's not closest to your sizing because it helps your argument.
You can do whatever you want, but I'm just going to tell you I'm very confident your approach here is very bad and this is not how you do stats
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01-29-2024 , 08:20 PM
#28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aner0
50bb EV loss comes from the fact that you have a value beater, he doesn't have 15% bluffs here from the very MDA that you showed. You used 25% size which is 2/3 of the way closer to 30% than 15%, so if anything you should estimate weak to be around 20. Open flopzilla or do some equity calcs with a rather pessimistic range and you'll see.

Also what's even the sample on your MDA? this is going to be a stupidly low sample spot. I don't even agree with your approach, but even using your approach I wouldn't fold
It's a small sample only 111 hands with R15, maybe we can combine R30 hands as well.



so over 800 hands, that seems like a decent sample but I'll have to ask tombos what the error rate is on that.
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01-29-2024 , 08:38 PM
#29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
Yeah I think you are right with the call it off.

I don't think you are right on the bolded part, have you seen GTO Wizard Sims for 3--->9bb? They go bigger not smaller.
Pretty sure the EV difference between small/big 4b bvb is tiny or 0, a few players like going really small or big to play a node their opponent is less studied in/is just harder. I assume people are generally less polar than they should which should incentivize larger from a GTO perspective.

In GTOWizard if you go to preflop only, 2.25x open (otherwise SB opens 3.5x) and switch between NL500 to NL200/1k rake, NL500 goes from 9 -> 19 while the others go from 9 -> 22.5 so it can't be due to rake. When using the smaller 4b it wants to jam a lot more.
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01-29-2024 , 08:47 PM
#30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
No it's 15weak.

Is villain really a reg though? 8bb 3b seems fishy and 48/40 seems high (although looks like 4-handed for a bit). If they are a fish they're likely more of an aggro subcategory (and still way under folds to 4bets).

Is this texturally dependent too? AK high is a fold/0ev OTT in this line on seemingly most boards so of course the MDA is going to say fold.
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01-29-2024 , 08:53 PM
#31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TripleBerryJam
Is villain really a reg though? 8bb 3b seems fishy and 48/40 seems high (although looks like 4-handed for a bit). If they are a fish they're likely more of an aggro subcategory (and still way under folds to 4bets).

Is this texturally dependent too? AK high is a fold/0ev OTT in this line on seemingly most boards so of course the MDA is going to say fold.
I'm just assuming he is a reg for the purposes of understanding the spot better. When you say AK is 0EV OTT, what do you mean exactly? Anero said it is a 50bb mistake in a solver.
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01-29-2024 , 09:08 PM
#32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
I'm just assuming he is a reg for the purposes of understanding the spot better. When you say AK is 0EV OTT, what do you mean exactly? Anero said it is a 50bb mistake in a solver.
Exactly, it's a very winning call on this board but on say T53Qr it's ~0EV. The MDA report seems to be saying fold AK high on an average board but on this board, it's way stronger.

Curious how much correlation there will be between reg/fish strats here I'd guess it's big.
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01-30-2024 , 10:46 AM
#33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aner0
111 showdowns is a ridiculously sample to make a 50bb solver mistake... Also you're cherrypicking the sizing that's not closest to your sizing because it helps your argument.
You can do whatever you want, but I'm just going to tell you I'm very confident your approach here is very bad and this is not how you do stats
I did manage to get a little over 800 hand samples but it's still not enough. I think you are correct in that AK is always a call here, it's too big of a deviation like you said.

I've been studying MDA in 4bet pots recently and the sample size issue keeps coming up, I think we can probably only use MDA in these spots to nudge us in a direction if it's close in a solver.

TY for being a voice of reason
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01-30-2024 , 07:24 PM
#34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
I did manage to get a little over 800 hand samples but it's still not enough. I think you are correct in that AK is always a call here, it's too big of a deviation like you said.

I've been studying MDA in 4bet pots recently and the sample size issue keeps coming up, I think we can probably only use MDA in these spots to nudge us in a direction if it's close in a solver.

TY for being a voice of reason
I think we can get far into the weeds here about this spot, but we can also use common sense. How often are regs XR a paired board to setup a 1/2 pot sized turn shove as a bluff?

But regarding sample sizes... I can tell you from selling a HUD for many years, and the stats that people want in their HUDs, that most of the poker population doesn't understand std deviation in hand sample sizing. People want stats on things like, XR river in 4-bet pot on low paired board. How will you ever get a big enough sample for that stat to be relevant?

800 hand sample isn't near big enough to draw valid conclusions unless the data skews really heavily one way or another.
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