100nl on Global 100bb deep
Hero has 65

Hero (SB) opens 3bb, BB 3b to 9bb, Hero calls

Flop (18bb) T87
Hero checks, BB bets 6bb, Hero raises to 16bb, BB 3b to 34bb, Hero calls (?)

Turn (86bb) T87J
Hero checks (thought about donking), BB checks

River (86bb) T87J8
Hero? (57bb left)

Calling the flop 3bet is bad, but it's possibly salvageable if you would've donked the turn.

No idea on river. Maybe he has something like QJ that folds, but just as likely you're running into TT/T8

I don't think flop raise is good. You are building the pot with very weak draw, it's not strong enough to call 3bet either esp because no one will just randomly 3bet this board.

I have this as a fold vs. 3-bet preflop, together with 76s, 87s and 98s. Am I a nit?

This seems like a very marginal call even pre-flop given your position.

Flopping an OESD is nice and all but when you examine the situation more your situation gets worse:

• out of position
• your cards are underpairs rather than overpairs
• One of your outs makes a very obvious 4 to a straight making it harder to get paid
• worse still in that scenario when you do get action it's quite often only from a J
• Even one of your other outs isn't clean as it puts a flush out there

So, all in all your situation is...not good.

Whatever about your initial raise on the flop - calling the subsequent 3bet seems suicidal.

Yeah flop call seems like a punt but I'm not 100% sure since 3b flop IP is so weird.
Is the flop XR raise good against an opponent who may be betting too wide for this sizing?

Pre is +EV by quite a bit, if they go 10bb I'll usually fold.

Ahhh, TIL ^^^

RE: flop... according to gtow we're raising mostly Jx, Tx and 9x, so the focus is on that top end of the straight. We do raise some 65s but even that's basically b/e and slightly less counterfeity

As for exploiting their likely over-depol range, the trouble is they have so many calls. OPs are still ok IP, plus all those draws. I think we're overestimating our fold eq PLUS...
it might also be a mistake to presume 'over' cbetting in this spot is all that exploitable to begin with. That's the beauty of the depol isn't it? Technically an error on unfavourable boards but in reality only a solver is capable of back juggling enough to pilfer the error effectively.

If villain were actually 3betting something close to a theoretically correct range preflop, then it might be. But I don't think most villains in practice will really be finding all the janky BBvsSB 3bets pre, even at this level. So their 3b range ends up being far more linear than it should be if it's some random global shitreg or fish

In theory flop raises here are built mostly around sets/straights, and then some 9x and a few Jx hands. This hand pretty much pure calls against the flop bet in most scenarios since it will realize best against that range versus villain's b/c or 3b range. The 9 isn't really an out for this hand, so I wouldn't really consider it an OESD like the 9x hands are. More like a weak gutshot since we can't draw to the nuts

This is also a board we could donk flop tho if you want to go that route

No clue what to do about river as played, like yeah jamming with 6 high on the river is usually good, but much more than a nonzero chance villain's entire range is boats and straights if this is just some random global player you have no history with

Good point, yeah playing vs "reg" BB 3bets is always weird since I have no clue what their range looks like.

Just because our opponents range gets stronger, we don't necessarily raise less since calling also becomes worse. Interestingly, XR is a mistake if they use a 10bb 3b size (which causes BB to be more polar), but facing a linear 3b (CO vs BTN) we XR a bit more.

I just assume that it's more linear in general, but yeah it's really hard to tell what regular types are actually doing there. You would think most of them have looked at the GTOWiz ranges but I don't think that's the case lol

And I'm not talking about raising less with our range in general, just this specific hand. I don't think this specific hand is going to want to x/r flop really at all vs 1/3 unless they have a weaker range that bets at a higher freq (like if they were to use a theoretically correct 3b range but then bet a lot more often than they should OTF, which I mentioned previously), or maybe if they for some reason were to bet flop with a range that didn't have many Jx so our 9 would still be an out. I think in most practical scenarios, this hand isn't going to realize equity as well with a x/r, since we're OOP and are going to be reducing v's range to its most "robust" portion of hands that will overrealize equity IP, and we can't call or jam vs the flop 3bet

How this hand played out is kind of exactly why I think x/r isn't really going to be good very often - being put in a -EV continue scenario with a hand that has the potential to outdraw most of their raising range is kind of a disaster

BB3bet range vs SB open