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03-02-2008 , 12:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nottom
I think you are missing the point. In this case we assume that he always calls with JJ+ AK, AQs, what we are trying to figure out is what his current range is and how it compares to that calling range. If for example, he only 3-bets with JJ+, AK, AQs ... then he will call with his entire range and we have no fold equity.

The math says that we need him to fold 19% of the time for a push to be +EV, that equates to folding 6 hands that he would 3-bet. This basically means if he 3-bets TT or AQo and will fold them to the push then we come out ahead. This is where you account for the fact that he will fold the bottom of his range.
Oh yeah, I took the calling range for the 3-bet-range. Thanks!
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03-02-2008 , 12:26 PM
Nice post, dude. I agree that doing this calculations away from the table is very important.
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03-02-2008 , 02:09 PM
Definitely a keeper. Thanks, BS!
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03-02-2008 , 04:06 PM
I just went through the calculations. I must be doing something wrong. All the examples work out fine, except the last one. Could someone help me out here?

According to pokerstove your equity is 0.40047
If villain calls, the total pot will be 201.5
The size of your shove is 87

a. profit = (0.40047*201.5)-87 = -6.3053
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03-02-2008 , 04:31 PM
yeah I think I added T9 to the range(which raises equity to 41%) instead of what was posted

I guess if I only had 1math mistake thats pretty good(i did it all just with calc, and didn't write everything down)
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03-02-2008 , 11:06 PM
Thanks bottomset, I'm trying to become more math oriented this certainly helps.
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03-03-2008 , 09:53 AM
Awesome post! This is how I thought it was done, but I had never seen it done out COMPLETELY and accurately. A+ post.

I'm about half way through the post now, but have to get to work . I think I did find another math error though, on problem 1 calling range 2 part c:

Quote:
c. 25: 6JJ, 6QQ, 3KK, 3AA, 9AK, 3AQs
6+6+3+3+9+3 = 30

EDIT: Oh yeah, and I think I dissed you earlier bottemset for never having good posts while you were trolling the forum. Basically I was new, I'm a baby, and you're the man. Sorry!
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03-03-2008 , 05:49 PM
NP, I'm glad BS is still hanging around to coach us.
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03-03-2008 , 06:00 PM
This is great stuff, but as I think about my personal 3betting range vs. 4bet calling range its almost completely dependent on the effective stacksizes and the villian. In a very deep game my 3bet=4betcalling range, but in as the stacks get smaller there is a bigger gap.

Of course IP I 3bet a wide range, and against nitty opponnents I resteal a lot from the blinds.

Last edited by SammyG-SD; 03-03-2008 at 06:20 PM.
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03-03-2008 , 07:04 PM
Nice post bottomset! A couple observations...

This really illustrates why reads are so important even if just to categorize a player's style (nit, LAG, TAG, station). The better we can put a player on a range, the better we can estimate our fold equity. For example, many nits will never raise with anything less than TPTK so if they raise you, their range is TPTK, overpairs and sets (or better). They may be able to fold TPTK and small overpairs, however you have to consider that much of their range is not folding. Similarly, calling stations have a very small raising range, what's more they're never folding TPTK. Don't expect to have fold equity against stations, ever.

Conversely, TAGs may have a much wider raising range, including semi-bluffs and hands like middle-pair on ragged flops. However, TAGs, particularly TAGfish are capable of making folds, sometimes very bad folds. So you'll often have good fold equity against these kinds of players. LAGs have even wider ranges, however, your fold equity will vary greatly. Against good LAGs you will have great fold equity, particularly if they've been running over the tables and it's obvious everyone is waiting for a big hand to play back at them (so you're representing being the guy who's finally made a hand). While their range is very wide, they're folding most of it to serious pressure. Bad LAGs and maniacs who are looking to felt every hand won't give you any fold equity. Like stations they're never folding and are happy just to gamble.


bottomset's post also illustrated the value of 3betting preflop, particularly against aggressive but not donkish raisers. For example, if we're on the button (or in the blinds) and a TAG player with a PFR of 8 open raises the CO, we should be 3betting with a massive range (pretty much anything we would normally raise the button with) unless we have other reads (ie: calls 3bets light, we've been butting heads constantly for the last 2 hours, etc). His open raising range is absolutely huge, but he's only calling/4 betting with a very small range. Which mean we pick off his raise the vast majority of the time, which is incredibly profitable.

Last edited by Cry Me A River; 03-03-2008 at 09:59 PM.
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03-03-2008 , 07:25 PM
nice post yo
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03-04-2008 , 02:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cry Me A River
For example, if we're on the button (or in the blinds) and a TAG player with a PFR of 8 open raises the CO, we should be 3betting with a massive range (pretty much anything we would normally raise the button with) unless we have other reads (ie: calls 3bets light, we've been butting heads constantly for the last 2 hours, etc). His open raising range is absolutely huge, but he's only calling/4 betting with a very small range. Which mean we pick off his raise the vast majority of the time, which is incredibly profitable.
I do not agree with this very much. We should probably 3bet a lot of the sc type hands, pairs, and big broadways. However, our button range (especially in weak games, which these are) should be pretty damn huge and include some stuff that is pretty weak like J7s and A2o which should just go into the muck more times than not.
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03-04-2008 , 04:53 AM
very nice post! ty bottomset
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03-09-2008 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
(your equity % * total pot size) - the amount of your shove(remember its only the new $, so if it went you raise to 6 get rr to 20 and shove allin for $100, your bet size for the equation is $94, not $100) = X

so say you have 60% equity, total pot = $205, betsize = 95

(.6 * 205) - 95 = $28
..from bottomset)^^^^


Am I missing something here..I'm looking at the blinds as .50/1.00 If that's the case shouldn't the pot be $203.50 total(2 limpers + sb/bb=$3.50) .... not $205.The betsize is suppose to be 94 not 95 ?
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