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Facing river overbet jam 4 flush board Facing river overbet jam 4 flush board
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02-06-2024 , 12:31 PM
#1
Tamol
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adept
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[converted_hand][hand_history]GG Poker - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

Hero (BTN): $64.79 (259.2 bb)
SB: $27.92 (111.7 bb)
BB: $25.00 (100 bb)
UTG: $30.63 (122.5 bb)
MP: $35.49 (142 bb)
CO: $117.93 (471.7 bb)

SB posts $0.10, BB posts $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has 7 7
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.63, SB raises to $2.50, fold, Hero calls $1.87

Flop: ($5.25, 2 players) 7 2 2
SB bets $4.90, Hero calls $4.90

Turn: ($15.05, 2 players) Q
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($15.05, 2 players) J
SB bets $20.52 and is all-in


Hero...?

considered just jamming the flop as I thought the huge size was weighted towards an overpair - but I looked in GTO Wizard after and it turns out V should be using a huge size (GTOW had 75%) as their main betting size.
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02-06-2024 , 12:36 PM
#2
DeeKayBee's Avatar
DeeKayBee
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journeyman
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I think he cloud have worst for value and you lose only to 6 combos find atleast 4 combos that are worse value or bluffs and you good. I'm snap calling.
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02-06-2024 , 01:48 PM
#3
Tamol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeeKayBee
I think he cloud have worst for value and you lose only to 6 combos find atleast 4 combos that are worse value or bluffs and you good. I'm snap calling.
I thought his AcXx bluffs would continue bluffing turn after such a large flop size, but he only really has ATo & AJo (but maybe doesn't even have these).

Feels like flushes would also bet small to lower SPR for river jam
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02-06-2024 , 03:19 PM
#4
stremba70
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I’m thinking AcAx might take a line like this. The PF 3! is obvious. A large cbet to charge a flush draw would make sense, and after calling that cbet, hero certainly has a lot of flush draw combos in his range, hence the check on the turn. Once the fourth club hits the river, villain probably is feeling pretty good about his nut flush and thinks hero might still call with a smaller flush.

That would give three of the four losing value combos. Unless villain is NEVER bluffing, this looks like a call.
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02-06-2024 , 03:23 PM
#5
AskZandar
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Call?
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02-06-2024 , 03:31 PM
#6
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huh?
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02-06-2024 , 03:35 PM
#7
Tamol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stremba70
I’m thinking AcAx might take a line like this. The PF 3! is obvious. A large cbet to charge a flush draw would make sense, and after calling that cbet, hero certainly has a lot of flush draw combos in his range, hence the check on the turn. Once the fourth club hits the river, villain probably is feeling pretty good about his nut flush and thinks hero might still call with a smaller flush.

That would give three of the four losing value combos. Unless villain is NEVER bluffing, this looks like a call.
Yea I thought he could have AA. Although I have all the boats (I'd probably 4b JJ/QQ pre but he doesn't know that) so overbet shoving river feels like an overplay? I thought AcAx would bet turn small as well
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02-06-2024 , 03:42 PM
#8
Dante Alighieri
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centurion
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Why did you check back turn?

As played, calling feels like a no-brainer as you underrepresented your hand. Apart from AcAx Villain could also have AcKx, maybe even AcJx.
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02-06-2024 , 04:38 PM
#9
Tamol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Alighieri
Why did you check back turn?

As played, calling feels like a no-brainer as you underrepresented your hand. Apart from AcAx Villain could also have AcKx, maybe even AcJx.
I wanted to keep in his bluffs and SPR is lowish anyway so easy to get the rest in on the river.

I'm probably being results oriented but it looked like JJ in game so I was close to folding, but I called as I thought he could maybe have AxAc/Axkc/AxKx but he had JJ. Flop sizing made me think he was a fish so likely face up and he'd bet most of his Ac combos on the turn.

Thanks all for the replies.
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02-06-2024 , 04:55 PM
#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tamol
I wanted to keep in his bluffs and SPR is lowish anyway so easy to get the rest in on the river.

I'm probably being results oriented but it looked like JJ in game so I was close to folding, but I called as I thought he could maybe have AxAc/Axkc/AxKx but he had JJ. Flop sizing made me think he was a fish so likely face up and he'd bet most of his Ac combos on the turn.

Thanks all for the replies.
100%. When these kinds of hands get posted, I think most 2+2ers know this was a hand you lost, and you're questioning whether you could talk yourself out of better reasoning to find a fold.

Naa... we won't let it happen!
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02-06-2024 , 05:11 PM
#11
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Folding vs this many worse value hands is majorly leaking EV. As a rule any boat vs possible flush/straight = no-brainer.

We should bet turn a lot too. Small keeps everything in range. Issue with 3-to-a-flush boards is we lose a lot of value when the fourth hits and they start folding calling hands.
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02-06-2024 , 05:51 PM
#12
Dante Alighieri
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centurion
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tamol
I wanted to keep in his bluffs and SPR is lowish anyway so easy to get the rest in on the river.
You check to induce bluffs and then want to fold to a bet?
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02-06-2024 , 06:36 PM
#13
Tamol
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dante Alighieri
You check to induce bluffs and then want to fold to a bet?
Well yea the dynamic changes quite a lot when the fourth club comes in, some of the hands that I'm trying to give rope to improve to a flush which I didn't think would choose this size
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02-06-2024 , 08:58 PM
#14
TripleBerryJam
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tamol
I thought his AcXx bluffs would continue bluffing turn after such a large flop size, but he only really has ATo & AJo (but maybe doesn't even have these).

Feels like flushes would also bet small to lower SPR for river jam
You're being too assumptive of villain's strategy. Look through random 25nl hands where you can see your opponents hole cards and you'll notice they do weird **** all the time.
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02-06-2024 , 09:06 PM
#15
AskZandar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tamol
Well yea the dynamic changes quite a lot when the fourth club comes in, some of the hands that I'm trying to give rope to improve to a flush which I didn't think would choose this size
you lose to 6 hands, and he might not always play them this way. He hardly ever needs to have worse hands for this to be a call.
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