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Ez call OTR with overpair on this run out? Ez call OTR with overpair on this run out?

02-19-2024 , 05:32 PM
PartyGaming - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 208.18 BB
Hero (BTN): 136.86 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 158.28 BB
UTG: 96 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, CO calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 3 BB

Flop: (9.5 BB, 2 players) 6 7 2
CO checks, Hero bets 2.96 BB, CO raises to 12.88 BB, Hero raises to 30 BB, CO calls 17.12 BB

Turn: (69.5 BB, 2 players) 5
CO checks, Hero checks

River: (69.5 BB, 2 players) 3
CO bets 65.64 BB, Hero ?
Ez call OTR with overpair on this run out? Quote
02-19-2024 , 06:19 PM
Would go bigger OTF but wouldn't 3bet. How many turns are you comfortable betting on?

If I did 3bet though, turn is a mandatory jam. Any 8x/4x/FD calls. If your beat you lose anyways so he is freerolling you if you check back.

As played, yeah call I think.
Ez call OTR with overpair on this run out? Quote
02-19-2024 , 06:51 PM
I have been defaulting to b33 cbet so that's why for the sizing.

3bet because villain tends to overplay basically any pair/FD. This is the same guy I have been posting hands about (crazy guy). I made a note at some point to try to get him to over play flops because he has shut down turn and rivers and I missed out on some value. That's what drove the check behind OTT, I think if he improved there that he would be betting/shoving. I think I would be stacking off any turn then. But when he checks, maybe better to play river if he's going to misplay harder than I will and not blow him off turn, idk.

But I checked thinking that he was going to bet smaller OTR with a weak pair that he felt over committed to and I could shove over it comfortably. The large bet wasn't what I expected from him. I had a plan and he threw a small wrench in it and I went blank and full time banked. Seems probably better in general to go a little bigger flop, with either a larger cbet or a slightly larger raise and shove turn like you said. Maybe I feel like I don't make enough plays like that where I'm getting in OTT so it would feel super obvious to me (probably projection leaks)

Yeah he's freerolling me OTT when I check back, wonder how big of a leak this is because I try to give some rope maybe a little too much sometimes.

The large bet felt like he might have loaded up 2p and I wouldn't doubt him to be getting there with any 4x too.
Ez call OTR with overpair on this run out? Quote
02-19-2024 , 07:29 PM
I felt like it’s too easy to say call anything vs this guy cause he’s legit atm and I was also looking for advice how to approach other player types so that’s why I didn’t mention at first
Ez call OTR with overpair on this run out? Quote
02-19-2024 , 07:58 PM
bet fold turn is better
Ez call OTR with overpair on this run out? Quote
02-19-2024 , 11:44 PM
98 gets there, 54 gets there, Ad4d gets there, 65 gets there. Then there are the sets and 76 on the flop that doesn't decide to get it in on the flop. There are only so many busted diamonds. But it is also a rec who could have random nonsense sometimes, right? I hate bluff catching really large river bets though, so I am torn. I think I am slightly in favor of calling.
Ez call OTR with overpair on this run out? Quote
02-20-2024 , 12:26 AM
Question marks should be on flop and turn play.

As ddp said bigger cbet. If you want to stack off you might as well make bigger 3bet like 40bb than you have trivial jam on any turn.

River is not easy call at all when he goes this big. With reads maybe
Ez call OTR with overpair on this run out? Quote
02-20-2024 , 02:01 PM
Very nice limp runout. But this is still yahoo territory on turn for me. Not many good rivers and this is one of them.

AP, dunno how reliable broad notes on limp fish are usually. My assumption would be they don't have quite enough mergey 88/A7 to call comfortably @ ~30%
Ez call OTR with overpair on this run out? Quote

      
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