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EV when calling a 3bet EV when calling a 3bet

01-31-2023 , 08:03 PM
Looking through some stats this passed month, specifically hands where I raised and then called a 3 bet. It looks like I lose quite a lot in these situations, which I think is expected. My PFR size is 2.5BB so if I folded instead of called my EV would be -2.5BB per hand. I'm currently sitting at -1.8BB per hand which isn't too much better.

I'm wondering what the EV is in these situations for a winning player and what type of adjustments I should make given this info.

Note: I am not including hands where I 4bet or fold.

EV when calling a 3bet Quote
01-31-2023 , 08:55 PM
For Starters, you are running quite poorly (yellow line).

In general, you are looking to get this winrate into the double digits.

I would think then end goal would be somewhere between -70bb/100 to -80bb/100. Is this ambitious? Yes.

The sample size is extremely small and quite insignificant. I am going to go out on a limb and say there are trends forming based on the slopes of your lines.

I would look at what is going on when your green line is fairly flat vs. where it takes those huge dips.

I don't know your play style, but this happens quite often when PP's get overplayed trying to flop sets out of frustration and/or too many suited hands that are hitting turn/river and not getting paid off. In a pool that underbluffs, playing IP vs guys who have way too many draws/hands that are vulnerable to getting pummeled passively. It makes sense your greenline flattened out and blue line went up (you likely paid a bad price, spiked a draw OOP on turn/river, checked turn/river (trying to induce in a spot that is quite easy to read) and did not face bet.
EV when calling a 3bet Quote
01-31-2023 , 09:18 PM
It's not supposed to be +ev, just better than folding pre.
U're entering the pot with the weaker range.
EV when calling a 3bet Quote
01-31-2023 , 09:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChiTownBubba
For Starters, you are running quite poorly (yellow line).

In general, you are looking to get this winrate into the double digits.

I would think then end goal would be somewhere between -70bb/100 to -80bb/100. Is this ambitious? Yes.

The sample size is extremely small and quite insignificant. I am going to go out on a limb and say there are trends forming based on the slopes of your lines.

I would look at what is going on when your green line is fairly flat vs. where it takes those huge dips.

I don't know your play style, but this happens quite often when PP's get overplayed trying to flop sets out of frustration and/or too many suited hands that are hitting turn/river and not getting paid off. In a pool that underbluffs, playing IP vs guys who have way too many draws/hands that are vulnerable to getting pummeled passively. It makes sense your greenline flattened out and blue line went up (you likely paid a bad price, spiked a draw OOP on turn/river, checked turn/river (trying to induce in a spot that is quite easy to read) and did not face bet.
Yeah it is definitely a small sample size. And come to think of it I should probably split this graph into IP calls vs OP calls.

I'm quite new to using a HUD and I am trying to review my stats to find leaks in my game, but this is hard without a solid baseline to go off.
EV when calling a 3bet Quote
01-31-2023 , 10:11 PM
So, preflop, we can limp, RFI or Fold.

While, yes, we certainly want to have a loss rate better than the open size, I want that number closer to the fold option (Zero EV) vs. the RFI sizing (-2.5bb).

I do agree that filtering by position is going to be a good idea, but looking at the big picture, -1.88bb/100 is worse than if we simply folded an entire orbit. So, I would say goal #1 should be to get it below -1.5bb and keep working on it (several things you can do to help it). If you get it to -1bb or better, you are doing quite well in the grand scheme of things.

I play anonymous so my approach was to maintain a 3bb RFI size with the preflop nuts (TT+, AQs+, AKo and usually AQo) from every single position (think about how much better we do when facing 4x 3 bets OOP with that range). I also started raising min/just over min from EP/MP with a tighter than GTO RFI range. Costs less to fold to 3b, costs less when we get called by their 18% IP call range, etc. I go 2.1bb UTG, 2.1bb MP, 2.4 to 3bb CO, 2 to 3bb BTN and always 3bb SB RFI. No one can ever read it. Rarely ever get more than 100 hands on players on regular speed tables.

The easiest way to improve here is to simply call more 3 bets with AA/AKo and basically never old TPTK+ except for the very worst of runouts. Of course we have to weigh the call of the 3b vs how we do when we 4b.

Working on your 4 betting strategy will play a big role in getting that loss rate down also.
EV when calling a 3bet Quote
01-31-2023 , 11:35 PM
I mean it's 500 hands, don't worry about it
EV when calling a 3bet Quote

      
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