[converted_hand][hand_history]PokerStars - $0.16 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

BTN: $48.12 (300.8 bb)
Hero (SB): $21.02 (131.4 bb)
BB: $16.00 (100 bb)
UTG: $16.46 (102.9 bb)
MP: $16.24 (101.5 bb)
CO: $30.13 (188.3 bb)

Hero posts SB $0.08, BB posts $0.16

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.24) Hero has J J
UTG raises to $0.48, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.92, fold, UTG calls $1.44

Flop: ($4.00, 2 players) 7 6 T
Hero bets $1.26, UTG calls $1.26

Turn: ($6.52, 2 players) J
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: ($6.52, 2 players) Q
Hero bets $3.61, UTG raises to $13.28 and is all-in

Am I ever good?

Could I have overbet the turn?

Gross spot. Not sure on river but the fact that you checked the turn gives me enough doubt that I probably end up calling but he probably has it.

I don’t get the turn check.

I would bet bigger otr. Folding river is good, your hand is pure bluff catcher and ppl wont find enough bluffs even solver is folding it most of the time.

I checked turn as I'd check QQ/AA/KK/AK a lot on this board.

I don't hate the turn check with JJ but I don't think you should be checking QQ+ much here though. River fold is gross but as an exploit I can't hate on it. Not enough players turn something like KTs into a bluff here.

As for overbetting the turn, usually that isn't the best idea with top set because you crush the board so hard. You are trying to put hands like TPGK into a tough spot with an overbet, and when you block them that hard you just get too many folds.

Why would you check a lot of those hands on turn? You have a lot of turn bluff barrels here that you want to balance with value
Also i think this hand is bigger flop cbet, you unblock a lot of flop floats, and you not want to give 88-99 cheap drawing, you rarely valuebet yourself against qq here, and if he have a set then nh sir
Given your nonsensical small river bet, hard to say if villain is not just spewing, or valuebet worse, but i would wold without reads

It's really hard for villain to have AK here.

They'd have to call flop and not bet turn. It's possible but unlikely.

The problem with calling river is our range has a ton of AK in it and villain should be conscientious of that. The hand that makes the most sense is QQ but even then it should be concerned about shipping.

Turn is a must bet, there's no reason to check in this spot. I can't see a hand that calls flop that wants to bet turn, that wouldn't otherwise call a turn bet.

This is a tough spot, since this runout smashes your 3bet range and villain is shipping over your river bet, you could default to a fold, or change things based on what you know about your opponent.

I bet flop small as he has clear nut advantage. V flat a 3bet, they have 89, 77, 66, TT at a high frequency when flatting 3bets in this pool I've found.

Idk about that, even if people in the pool have more of those hands than in theory, nut advantage is relative ot SPR and at this one AA/KK are pretty nutted too in that they don't mind stacking off if the board stays static. Personally I'd probably play this spot 1/2p or x, and you can x it with most of your range if you're worried about them having too many nuts (since even at equilbrium they have the raw equity advantage anyway - and the fact UTG has a bigger EV advantage than it has an equity advantage, despite being IP, speaks to you having some nuts)

GTOwizard checks flop 53% of the time with your combo fwiw (granted they're playing some funky ranges in this spot since its 2bb open vs their big and polarized raise size so ymmv). They're also playing mixed sizes and the small sizing is the least used one in the range overall (9% of overall range, compared to 16% of the range betting 1/2p size and 30% betting the 3/4p size; checking the remaining 43%), again implying you have a good top end.

So while I wouldn't bet 1/3 if you're trying to play a relatively unexploitable 1sizing strategy, if you're playing mixed sizes your bet is theoretically correct around half the time, and if you're playing in an exploitative way betting small is probably best. So its hard to fault you heh. But x/c might be more what you're looking for idk

Ott they're betting JJ about half the time in aggregate, betting the black jacks like always and your combo - the one that unblocks the most BDFDs i guess, since you don't have the Js? - like 35% with the other combo in between there. In practice I doubt it matters much whether you check or bet here, and I'd probably check in-game.

Notably, while AK is a mix for villlain when you x, he should check it back more often than not. And could also simplify his mixed strat to pure x AK pure bet AQ without losing much, since he bets the latter more often.

Otr my inclination was that you should bet smaller or maybe even x, and GTOwizard is pure betting JJ for either 1/3p or 10%p, and folding the vast majority of its JJ to the raise including pure-folding your combo (i'd pure-fold them all as a small exploit). Against 1/3 sizing villain obviously never ships anything but AK for value, and theoretically shouldn't fold any 2broadway hand it gets here with, though I assume people in your shoes would have fewer bluffs in practice and thus he should fold more

Theoretically? Because in practice it's not hard at all

v had ak, they should be betting the turn a lot, and I would, but what you should do and what the pool does are two very different things.

I knew it too but wasn't disciplined enough to fold.

Speaking on that, anyone know any resources that help with discipline? lol

Very likely AK. Since you are the one repping AK and having more AK since you 3bet pre and he just called it is so seldom people bluff this way (even though he will have a lot of AKo too). If they have a set/2p here (which also is unlikely) they would just call your riverbet.

Is your flopsizing a thing? I don't like it at all. Just bet around 50% (SPECIALLY with JJ). Turncheck I can get behind but I would like it more if you would have bet bigger otf. Now it is meh. You should bet JJ very frequently on this board ott.

Riversizing is too big with exactly JJ and when you bet this size and he shoves it is a purefold in theory.

Sidenot. If villain calls pre with AK. He calls flop so often and most often xb turn instead of bets turn so he swill have a lot AK in range.

GTOWizard thinks the opposite - their opinion is that this flop size is rarely a thing but JJ specifically is one of the hands that wants it most - its their least used size by far in general, but their most used size for JJ. But I agree its easier to play 1/2p or check.

Anyway villain's turn check with AK was neither bad nor strange, not sure why that's being insisted on itt

Yeah as a general rule size most vulnerable overpairs OOP for bigger bets. Especially when high card on board is broadway.

Entire hand is standard from my POV.