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I think I get what you're saying, but imo that doesn't automatically mean that the entirety of our 4bet "bluffing" range is going to be only hands with an A or a K. QQ/JJ should still jam at a high freq, particularly at higher rake structures, not to mention that AA should be flat called by villain a significant % of the time at any rake structure. But maybe that's less relevant in practice if these regs don't know to flat most AA and jam some JJ
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AQo/AJo/KQo/KJo block Ax and Kx just as much as they block Qx and Jx, I don't really see that as a reason for not wanting to 4bet this hand
These are good thoughts for sure, although I think I may have confused you a bit on the second point. When you're 4 bet bluffing (or semibluffing/bluffing in general), the most important thing you need to have for it to be +EV is direct fold equity, getting folds from BTN is where you're going to make your profit. So my second point was that having a Q or J in your hand when 4 betting blocks the offsuit part of BTN's 3 bet/fold range while not blocking many shoves at all (only the pairs). When you compare that to having an A or K in your hand, with those types of hands you're blocking the unpaired portion of the shove range as well as blocking fewer 3 bet/folds.
To be honest, the thoughts I sent you earlier were just general unproven blocker theory thoughts, so to make sure I wasn't spewing crap I decided to prove it out theoretically (I can try and share my Excel file if you'd like). Just like you, I use GTO Wizard for preflop solves (and postflop for what it's worth), and here's the solution for BTN's response facing a 4 bet from CO:
In theory, the BTN should be 3 betting a 12.2% range vs a CO open, or 161.7 combos. I added up all the combos in Excel, and even though it's not obvious right away from the chart, the highest proportion of the 3 bets actually comes from the offsuit portion of the range (69 combos vs 58.2 combos of suited hands and 34.5 combos of pairs). Remember that when you're looking at GTO Wizard charts, even when you have it shown adjusted for range height there's still 3x as many offsuit combos as suited combos (12 vs 4) and 2x as many offsuit combos as paired combos (12 vs 6) for a particular "box". Anyways, you can see that when facing a 4 bet, BTN should theoretically be folding 51.9% of their range, calling 22.1% of their range, and jamming the remaining 26% of their range. When you're looking at the hands you're trying to fold out with the 4 bet, most of them are from the offsuit broadway part of the range (54.8 of the 83.9 combos that fold).
Anyways, I did some analysis comparing how blockers impact BTN's range facing a 4 bet. For the purposes of this exercise, I compared QJs with KTs, the highest frequency bluff 4 bet that GTO Wizard 4 bets almost pure (84.5%). Here is a summary of the baseline continuing range with no blocker impact (so about what would happen if you were to 4 bet pocket 2s):
And here is how the ranges change if you 4 bet QJs and KTs:
As you can see, QJs blocks a full 4.5 combos more folds compared to KTs, whereas KTs blocks more combos of both calls and jams than QJs. Most of those fold combos QJs blocks comes from that offsuit broadway region (AQo, AJo, KQo, KJo) you were referring to earlier. All of this results in a hand like KTs getting 2.3% more direct folds than QJs, which doesn't seem like that much at first but assuming the pot is around 11 BB that translates into 0.25 BB of profit directly from folds. Also, blocking more jams means that you're not going to get blasted out of the pot right away as often with a hand like KTs/K9s compared to QJs, which allows you to realize more of your equity postflop. Also, this all assumes that your opponent is jamming JJ at full frequency - if your opponent ever flats JJ (which I see all the time at 50NL) the disparity between QJs and suited kings becomes even greater as the gap in the jam range becomes even bigger (now QJs blocks fewer jams), plus suited kings can now realize their 30-32% equity vs JJ. Finally, a hand like KTs has more equity when called than QJs - around 42% compared to 40-41% for QJs.
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And you also called QJs a "suited connector," which I think is categorically incorrect, though technically true. I think it's more of a "suited broadway." idk where you've gotten your ranges from, but GTOWizard basically only ever 4bets broadway, suited aces, suited kings, and T9s. 4betting lower suited connectors seems like a terrible idea to me when you block nothing at all
I'm just using simplified GTOWizard ranges, so I'm 4betting this 25% of the time. Not sure where you've gotten your ranges from, but I've always assumed GTOWizard was decent enough for preflop at least
Yeah I do agree with this mostly, and I especially agree with your suited broadway and lower suited connector comments. I guess if you were to ever 4 bet a lower suited connector maybe a hand like 65s makes some sense because at least you block A5s/low freq 66 jams (which almost no one finds in game but it's something at least). For what it's worth you'll see GTO Wizard 4 bet 65s at some frequency at 200 BB effective, especially in the NL500 rake structure. However, in terms of QJs itself, from what I'm seeing in GTO Wizard it recommends 4 betting it 11% of the time, so very low frequency anyways and much lower than 25%. But given the negative blocking/domination problems with the hand I would personally rather just pitch it and either 4 bet a suited king more often or use a hand like A9s or A4s to 4 bet instead (which GTO pretty much pure folds for some reason). The same thing goes for JTs, which GTO Wizard recommends 4 betting 42% of the time for some reason; that hand actually plays pretty well as a call OOP imo as it does quite well against the AK/AQ/KQ types of hands, so I usually just throw in the call and then find other hands to 4 bet. Idk I typically just play QJs/JTs as a pure fold/call, I only consider 4 bet them as a hyper exploit against a 15%+ 3 better that has a fold button. I like hands like A9s, A4s, and A3s instead as 4 bets instead, but you should play however you feel most comfortable. As a disclaimer, in general I don't know if you want to take any of my advice because I'm not really that good of a player, I'm a breakeven rakeback reg lol (-0.9 EV BB/100 on ACR 50NL Blitz with 127k hands).