Last night on a couple tables i had more than 1 villain donking in weird spots for weird sizings and i wasnt sure what to do or how much i was supposed to defend with a hand thats very borderline. I see this happening often enough to worry about it i think.

Example: hero opens button w

Kh6h

Flop 4s 8h Qc

Villain donks 90% pot

It feels a little weak to call for that sizing. I thought about raising, but again its vs a large sizing and in my experience we have very little fold equity, so if I raise I need to be prepared to blast away. Is it okay to just fold? I felt like im being exploited folding there, but totally lost.

Had a couple other spots too on pretty dry boards where I faced a pot sized donk after totally whiffing.

PSB donks tend to be more value orientated than the smaller sizes for fish.



I typically look to play later streets vs donks. You can see here that fish also continue quite often so on almost any give up (check) I like to float them to try to get them off the pot. Most of their range is pair type hands


In general, I don't continue with naked BDs vs PSB donks, but vs b50 or less I can end up continuing fairly wide looking to take the pot for myself on a later street. IMO you are not going to be exploited by folding everything but 2nd pair+overcard or better to PSB donks (and obviously your draws aren't folding).

Never raise donk bets OTF if you have air, they call more than they should even though they are overbluffing.

It's totally fine to fold without info.

You need to pay attention what is he donking. If you see SD where he donks strong hand for pot otf, you exploit that by putting pressure when he checks. If you see some trash, you raise and call donks and play more passive when vs cheks.

Sometimes you just have to fold. You have a ton of better hands that you can call with.

Thats very true. I have learned that lesson the hard way over the years so i dont do that anymore

Thank you guys. So its good, i am approaching this spot correctly then.

Is this sizing dependant at all?

Anecdotally, it does seem to me that fish fold to raises somewhat often after donking small, although I don't have any data to support this hunch.

Do you know what MDA says?

Seems like fold frequencies are similar except for large sizes (80%+ which is quite a bit stronger). I believe GTO folds more to raises after betting large so you should be better off bluffing vs small. Didn't look at 1bb donk maybe that's significantly different.

IGNORE - WRONG FILTERS. AMENDED POST COMING

So there's 2 stats -

Donk Fold to a Raise which covers hands in which a player donks the flop, turn or river and then folds to a raise.

Fold to Flop Raise - self explanatory

Not sure which one would be better.


Overall




After Donking 1bb




After donking PSB or larger*

Samples seem super low here's what I have:

(100-200nl VPIP > 35 gap > 10, donk freq is 14%)
Looking at textures it's possible they're overfolding after going small on A high, mono, and dry paired boards but it's hard to tell since I don't know the average sizing and MDF doesn't work OTF.

Analyzing raise spots is a lot harder because you have more significant blockers and much higher samples needed.

I would agree. Anecdotally i believe they fold more often after the small donk. When ive raised large donks it seems like fold equity is close to nil.

Even though the small donk has more fold equity, i still might not be enough to just raise air

Probably not any spots you can raise air OTF, what interests me is: if you have a +EV theory call where with raise mixing, how does the EV of both shift vs a fish based on the hand class and board/sizing.

When fish check turn after donking they actually fold a lot. Problem is they barrel a lot so floating isn't attractive.

It's surprisingly not sizing dependent unless it's in the extremes so D10 or D100+.

Ancedotes don't work in poker because it's a data game so that's basically a euphemism for a small sample size.

It doesn't shift on the sizing unless it's in the extremes so we would just base it on the board. Board textures where fish call more than normal are intuitive so Ace high/two tones/straight boards.

Fish barrel 67% OTT after they donk flop.

I normally do what's best for my specific hand. only raise air if it has some kind of sdv or if it has equity and plays better than a call-call.

They fold too much when you raise donk bet and keep betting turn