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Old 05-01-2009, 01:10 PM   #26
King Spew
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

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Originally Posted by RapidEvolution View Post
Read the whole thing again...I hate you because I have to follow up on this.
J.... I am SOOOOOOOOOO looking forward to your EPIC, SUPER COLOSSAL, MISSIVE EXTRADONAIRE, MIND EXPANDING, LIFE ALTERING..........


nom nom nom
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Old 05-01-2009, 01:15 PM   #27
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

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Originally Posted by imfromsweden View Post
Nice post!

I over-do this so much, I've gotta learn that it's okey to fold aginst a cbet.

Back to message!

To bluff is really two things in a nutshell.

1. Is opponent ripe for picking?
2. What is my image? Have I been active recently so that villain might get the impression that we are bluffing? YIKES. Or is our frequency of aggression about what it needs to be in order to effectively bluff the pants off Paris Hilton.....you see, it really IS that easy.
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Old 05-01-2009, 01:44 PM   #28
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

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Back to message!

To bluff is really two things in a nutshell.

1. Is opponent ripe for picking?
2. What is my image? Have I been active recently so that villain might get the impression that we are bluffing? YIKES. Or is our frequency of aggression about what it needs to be in order to effectively bluff the pants off Paris Hilton.....you see, it really IS that easy.
Well check/raising OOP aginst regs is soooo profitable. Some regs fold eveything except TPTK+, but most of the only continue with Two-pair+, and megs draws. However, after pulling this move once, they get mad, and call the c/r with TP+. Trust me, i've pushed the envelope too far many times... Gotta learn when to fold'em I guess.

But overall, check/raising aginst regs is so profitable it's pritty sick
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Old 05-01-2009, 01:56 PM   #29
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

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But overall, check/raising aginst regs is so profitable it's pritty sick
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Or is your frequency of aggression about what it needs to be in order to effectively bluff
It seems for one type of opponent that you encounter...you have got it right. It is the whole bouquet of criteria that makes it work for you....and maybe not so well for others. I prefer to narrow my targets further (in this instance) to good regs/ bad regs / multitabling regs / American regs / Euro trash regs....
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Old 05-03-2009, 02:26 PM   #30
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

I was a little disappointed after reading part I: The example is just not so good. We hit that flop imo (and 10 outs is probably a better approximation than 9 outs due to the BD SD). This is much better than, for example, 1P + GS when villain has a big pair. So if you suggest that--despite this good draw--the default action is fold, do you really have the IO to call PF? What are you hoping to flop then? After all, the PFR is 5BB and, more importantly, we're *OOP*, which will make it more difficult to extract when we hit the flop hard.

But... I kept reading, and parts II and III were most insightful! That's excellent stuff!
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Old 05-03-2009, 03:30 PM   #31
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

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Originally Posted by RapidEvolution View Post
Read the whole thing again...I hate you because I have to follow up on this.
Dont worry RE, as long as you explain how to balance pot equity, fold equity, and pot&implied odds to make the perfect play every time vs this exact villain and situation we'll be satisfied.

but all kidding aside, looking forward to it!
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Old 05-03-2009, 04:03 PM   #32
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

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I was a little disappointed after reading part I: The example is just not so good. We hit that flop imo (and 10 outs is probably a better approximation than 9 outs due to the BD SD). This is much better than, for example, 1P + GS when villain has a big pair. So if you suggest that--despite this good draw--the default action is fold, do you really have the IO to call PF? What are you hoping to flop then? After all, the PFR is 5BB and, more importantly, we're *OOP*, which will make it more difficult to extract when we hit the flop hard.

But... I kept reading, and parts II and III were most insightful! That's excellent stuff!
ty
I had an idea that some wouldn't like my choice of example. Except I think it CLEARLY shows the major premise of my arguments.

Against certain opponents, this is a semi-clear play hand.

Against others, we will never recoup the money invested.

And you have reiterated a point I made: Every time we are preflop and considering a cold call, we need to size up our opponent BEFORE we play on. As was pointed out so well in Alex's CotW on basic cold calling, we have to divide our opponent into Bust or Bluff camp PF....then make an educated guess.

The "problem" with this is the opponents we think we can bluff are different than the opponents we can bust so if the flop comes counter to PF strategy, then yes, fold is the best option.
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Old 11-18-2009, 03:58 AM   #33
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

I've been re-reading (and reading for the first time on some), and I just wanted to say Thanks - this one for whatever reason was very helpful to me. Nice job.
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Old 04-01-2010, 10:59 PM   #34
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

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Goofballer added …..a quicker method you can use at the table to figure out how much you need to extract is to subtract the pot odds from your required implied odds. For example:

With the flush draw, you're getting 2:1 pot odds on a 4.2:1 shot (you said 5:1 but didn't use that figure anywhere else so your math looks ok). So, 4.2:1 - 2:1 = 2.2:1 implied value you need to make off of your hand when you hit; when calling a 20BB bet, 2.2 * 20 = 44BB you need to make when you hit to break even.


Another example is with pocket pairs; say you open to 4BB UTG with 55, one person calls, and CO squeezes to 12BB. There's 22BB in the pot, so you're getting 20:8 or 2.5:1 pot odds to call the bet. Since you need 7.5:1 implied odds to flop a set, you need to collect (7.5:1 - 2.5:1) = 5:1 implied odds postflop, or 40BB to break even. If CO is tight and you know this raise means QQ+, you can probably call profitably expecting to stack him often enough for calling to be +EV, but against a looser player you might consider letting it go (although you can factor in that you can usually expect to snap off a CB of ~20BB against most players).

This is gold.

Can you elaborate on how we should account for implied odds/FE when we float?
Specifically - say we use this formula - the inflexion point seems to be as our implied odds increase - our fold equity decreases........would you care to comment upon when we have equity and we see 2.2-1 implied odds?

Is it that we either need - high FE or High Implied odds? and everything else is a fold?
Or is it only ever High implied odds - if we have high FE we should just raise or c/r the flop?

How does this fit in with having a weak perceived range PF?

Can you perhaps expand upon cold-calling with 200bb+ stack depth? What range changes would you make in a FR micro/small stakes game for your cold-calling range PF?
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Old 04-01-2010, 11:17 PM   #35
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

67

On
K82

Can you discuss the variables if you think the decision is close?

The fact that we have a 3 straight make enough of a difference in a tie-break thought process?

vs say

K32

The fact that the top rank is part of the flushing board?

vs
K32
or
K82

How do you think we should account for RIO and Backdoor equity?

And how about backdoor FE?

If say we moved the second rank up

We hold

87

K92

How should we think about our continuation equity now?
Given we have backdoor equity but we might not have high FE on the flop but we might on the turn.
e.g. Any T,6,5 strongly helps us J,8,7 marginally improves us and a Q develops the board......If you include all other we get close to 2/3 of the deck - either developing the board or improving our equity?
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Old 04-02-2010, 04:15 PM   #36
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

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This is gold from goofballer. fyp

Can you elaborate on how we should account for implied odds/FE when we float?

I tend to look at floating as an equity choice. If I have equity, I can float for value. If I flopped mini-equity, then the only way to continue is if we can take villain off the hand....doh. Back to Bluff em/ Bust em and this topic being soooooo villain specific.

Going back to basics, we get involved against this villain with XX as our hand for two reasons. B or B. If the flop takes us off our option, then fold. Simple game. The tricky part is deciding how much equity you need against Villain X in order to continue. Not sure if there is a magic formula.....and in a real sense, if it's that close, does it really matter which path we choose?



Specifically - say we use this formula - the inflexion point seems to be as our implied odds increase - our fold equity decreases........would you care to comment upon when we have equity and we see 2.2-1 implied odds?

Is it that we either need - high FE or High Implied odds? and everything else is a fold?
Or is it only ever High implied odds - if we have high FE we should just raise or c/r the flop?

No, it's not just IO. I used the above quick formula for awhile, digger...until I was almost ALWAYS going back to the same issue (can I bluff or bust) and finding the generic strat that says if I have IO, then the 44BB is easily attainable.... conversely if I have high FE, then any two will do and it comes down to which street is best to take it away from this particular villain.

How does this fit in with having a weak perceived range PF?

It's only weak if villain thinks it's weak. Cmon, even I put people on small pairs when they call behind. Villain's make sets against me even other hand.

Can you perhaps expand upon cold-calling with 200bb+ stack depth? What range changes would you make in a FR micro/small stakes game for your cold-calling range PF?
Oh, I definately play much more garbage vs. the payoff wizards. In fact, I am less likely to raise PF with my borderline auto-raises in a 100BB game....like QJs, K9s, 66. I also feel that the NITs like there hand alot less on the river when there is a another 130BB behind. Bells of steel my friend,,, stay thirsty.
.
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Old 04-02-2010, 04:56 PM   #37
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

As to your second post, if I have equity in the flop, I will continue against almost all styles of villain.

Now with flop equity, I need to work out/balance how often I need to rely on this FE if we can instead make more if we can extract X amount MORE than just by stealing if we hit bingo vs the WT. So in our example, if we float the flop with just the FD....when the BD str8 help hits on the turn, we can continue with or without aggression (depending on villain). ((Personally, I like to be aggressive in this spot...being ever mindful of stack sizes and commitment thresholds. I think it is best primarily because I will often aggro up on my monsters on the turn anyway...as we all do)) If we miss getting help, then we are back with a purer play or fold decision.

If I hit my hand, can WT pay me....with three hearts on the board by the river? There are a ton of players out there (2+2ers incl) that will bet flop, bet turn, and then c/f the river when the third heart hits. You want this when you hold clubs.... but not so good when you actually got there.

Summing up cause I think I rambled too much without saying anything, if we go into a hand because we can bust villain but get equity, if we switch gears, can we get paid? If we go into the hand because of IO and miss... we fold.
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Old 04-02-2010, 04:58 PM   #38
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

Ok if you feel it belongs more in the floating section - thats cool.

If you were to remove - the flopped FD and just leave the BDFD on the flops.....I assume when you are bluffing - that it is with BD equity?

If so - do you prefer focus primarily on villians tendencies or do you place board development high on your mental checklist for float-bluffing lines?
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Old 04-02-2010, 05:28 PM   #39
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

"almost" always, villain play is paramount. But of course villain's play on "this type of board" is a big part of that equation. Can he fold when an ace hits the turn....or is he a 38/4 that plays any ace ....hoping.

BD equity is of little consequence if we choose to attempt to bluff out a station. BD equity has such little value vs. the WT... you were gunna get him anyway.

from the original:

When cold calling PF and you miss the flop with little chance to improve, your hand strength doesn’t matter.

So we are back to: play the player....with an eye toward board texture.

As to the floating... we get into IP an OOP stuff that is outlined above. And I am not sure I can answer whether we are floating with equity or equity continuing by floating. This CoTW is about calling PF so we have no initiative in the hand. And folding is usually the best option. Calculating minor equities of a BD draw should (imo) only be added to equity you already have...whether it is FE..... or the hand strength equity you already have.... one pair with a BD. IO equity...... is very small when all you have is a BD draw.
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Old 12-05-2011, 01:35 AM   #40
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

Thanks for the thread.

I would appreciate any further thougts on how to identify different bust or bluff tendencies of opponents based on stats.
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Old 12-05-2011, 03:45 AM   #41
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

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I would appreciate any further thougts on how to identify different bust or bluff tendencies of opponents based on stats.
Right back atcha, Wata.

itt, we talked about specific villain we think we can bust. What stats are likely to point to those particular villains?

Conversely, there are a few stats that point to the villains we can move off better hands. What stats might suggest this?

<<admittedly, I am turning the tables on you ....I hope you don't feel I am punishing you. But a coupla things are in play here.>>

1. I don't play any more...sitting on the sidelines after BF has made my keenly sharp pokering brain ...less keen

2. I believe in the Socratic Method for learning.

3. I wasn't a brilliant thinker when I wrote this OP. I was pretty good....but I still had (have) a long way to go in my development as a player/teacher. One HUGE part of my learning process was the actual writing of this OP. It took me hours and made me really focus on the minutia of this topic.....and thus expand and encourage my own desire to learn more myself. So.....

4. Spend some time Wata and come up with the answers to your question and post them here. It will help this thread by providing more relevant info. But it will help you more. (pretty nice win/win imo)
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Old 12-05-2011, 04:23 AM   #42
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

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Conversely, there are a few stats that point to the villains we can move off better hands. What stats might suggest this?
I think, all stats related to folding C-bets vs raises. Also, flop and turn c-bet themselves.

They seem like the logical stats to pay attention at, but maybe there are more? And what about the values?
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Old 12-05-2011, 12:16 PM   #43
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

Cmon Wata, I'm not doing the studying for you. What I proposed will take real effort on your part. Four sentences?

Since 2009, I have tried VERY hard not to spoon feed anyone as no real learning takes place. If you don't want to do the legwork, that's fine with me also. The answers are in this thread with the use of a few others that might help (stat explanations)
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Old 12-05-2011, 06:44 PM   #44
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

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Cmon Wata, I'm not doing the studying for you. What I proposed will take real effort on your part. Four sentences?

Since 2009, I have tried VERY hard not to spoon feed anyone as no real learning takes place. If you don't want to do the legwork, that's fine with me also. The answers are in this thread with the use of a few others that might help (stat explanations)
I get you.

I am not a HUD player tho. I need some further guidance. I would welcome if you gave me some defined assignements so I can come up with something for you.
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Old 12-05-2011, 07:15 PM   #45
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

quick question: if you are not a HUD guy, why do stats matter?

btw, thanks for not getting ticked off. I don't want to push you out, I want to push you forward. YOU can be the next expert in cold-calling , I missed!
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Old 12-05-2011, 08:58 PM   #46
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

errrr... because I guess if I can start using the hud to identify bust/bluff opponents more accurately I can make more money?
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Old 12-06-2011, 07:46 AM   #47
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

ive been gone from this forum to long and missing all these gems here.
Didnt read all but so far seem pretty solid.
gonna start reading the other COTW that i've missed out.
the CR flop thing is something ive been up and down about.
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Old 12-06-2011, 02:09 PM   #48
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

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errrr... because I guess if I can start using the hud to identify bust/bluff opponents more accurately I can make more money?
OK,,, yes, you can use a HUD to see stats that can make playing a particular opponent, on a particular hand, more profitable for you.

and as a coincidence, THIS CoTW thread just got bumped to the from page.
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Old 12-06-2011, 02:23 PM   #49
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

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the CR flop thing is something ive been up and down about.
villain dependent......like doh. Basically for me, if a villain has shown that he can fold, I like to c/r to get more $ in the pot. Additionally if a villain CBets a very high proportion of the time, he can't possibly be strong enough times that he can continue after a c/r. But my go_to is almost always looking for folders (weak tighties mostly)

Rich, when I wrote this article many moons ago, "our" CoTW authors had barely scratched the surface of playing the opponent, not the cards. So I felt I needed to add this component of poker learning as a "hidden" theme. The main premiss Bust or Bluff (using Alex's apt terminology) is a nice way to start. Also felt that my ending thought was "When cold calling PF and you miss the flop with little chance to improve, your hand strength doesn’t matter".

So...I get that you are up and down. And because of the nature of the game, our reads may be PERFECT (villain will fold here a million percent!!! Absolutely) and yet villain reraises this time.....making the game even easier. Yeah, your bluff c/r failed this time....but you are Charlie Sheen WINNING because we aren't putting in another dime after our autofold. But we MUST c/r this schmuck again just to make sure he has started to adjust.....right? Because it really boils down to the maths of the c/r....and so far it is good against X, but bad against Y.
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Old 12-06-2011, 02:31 PM   #50
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Re: Concept of the Week #13: I Cold Called and missed the Flop

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Goofballer added …..a quicker method you can use at the table to figure out how much you need to extract is to subtract the pot odds from your required implied odds. For example:

With the flush draw, you're getting 2:1 pot odds on a 4.2:1 shot (you said 5:1 but didn't use that figure anywhere else so your math looks ok). So, 4.2:1 - 2:1 = 2.2:1 implied value you need to make off of your hand when you hit; when calling a 20BB bet, 2.2 * 20 = 44BB you need to make when you hit to break even.
Does this method indicates us that we should make some additional 44BB when we hit, without counting the exisiting pot at the moment of the call?
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