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Classic all-in lead out on the river, we..? ( SNG) Classic all-in lead out on the river, we..? ( SNG)

07-15-2009 , 01:19 PM
This is an absolute classic case.

It's about hand 30. Villain is a small ball, slow play, thinking opponent. He is very passive and min raises when he is strong. His ROI isn't too bad although he is in minus through high stake losses.

We pick up a premium hand - min raise because that's what we've been doing so far and we want to disguise our hand.

Flop and Turn seem standard to me.

Problem:

This unexpected leadout is critical. It happens a lot too. He is clearly represented the rivered flush, or maybe slow playing the straight?

However, would he play the nuts like this? We have been fairly tight so far so our image to him is, he should really value bet this, or even check-raise?

Who would call and why and who would fold and why?

Full Tilt Poker $20 + $1 Heads Up No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players - View hand 185388
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BB: t1430 M = 31.78
Hero (BTN/SB): t1570 M = 34.89

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with A Q
Hero raises to t60, BB calls t30

Flop: (t120) T 8 Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t75, BB calls t75

Turn: (t270) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t190, BB calls t190

River: (t650) 5 (2 players)
BB bets t1105 all in
Classic all-in lead out on the river, we..? ( SNG) Quote
07-15-2009 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
This unexpected leadout is critical. It happens a lot too. He is clearly represented the rivered flush, or maybe slow playing the straight?
It happens a lot in general? Even so, what it means in a given instance is very villain and match dependent. Here for example, the person you've described doesn't seem willing or capable of doing this as a bluff very often -- I'd say almost never with pure air, rarely with T9 type stuff turning itself into a bluff, and not that often with a missed draw, due to the style of player he seems to be, and also the small number of logical missed draws on this board that play this way.

You say he is very passive, slowplays, etc., so really I'm fine assuming a big part of his river range is for value.

Now theoretically that can include a bunch of weaker 2-pairs, like QT/Q8/T8/A8/AT, but I expect them to min-check-raise flop or turn, based on your villain description. And if not, open shoving them on this particular river seems ******ed, so your reads on him should determine if he's capable of it. Or he rivered something like Q5 ... but even then, open shipping it on this board is unusual for a thinking, small-ball player.

Anyway, let's look at river pot odds and a range. You have to call 1105 to win 1755, so are getting 1.58 to 1, needing ~39% equity to break even.

Board: Tc 8d Qc Ad 5c

Wins... Ties.... Equity...
32.47% 0.00% 32.47% ( AcQh )
67.53% 0.00% 67.53% ( KJ(70), Q5(20), QT(15), Q8(15), T8(15), A8(15), AT(15), J9(50), J7(15), JT(15), KT(15), AK(15), T9(15), Kc7c, Kc8c, Kc9c, Jc7c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 6c4c, 4c3c )

The weighted range I gave him is off the top of my head. You actually played him, so if you tweak how often you think he can play worse 2-pair like this, or add some backdoor diamond draws making a bold bluff (if he's floaty on flops), or emphasize one or two spazzy moves with something like AJ or whatever, then you may end up finding the equity you need to call. But I sense it's probably going to be marginal +EV even under the more optimistic scenarios against this guy.

Last edited by lagdonk; 07-15-2009 at 05:22 PM.
Classic all-in lead out on the river, we..? ( SNG) Quote
07-15-2009 , 06:19 PM
I'm calling. He either has a weak Ax or the flush but I'm not folding top 2 pair with a donk.
Classic all-in lead out on the river, we..? ( SNG) Quote
07-15-2009 , 06:24 PM
For a thinking player who likes to slowplay and minraise premium hands, this line suggests weakness, not strength. I call and expect a one pair hand.

Also, I pot the wet flop to extract more value from draws.

Last edited by bluemage55; 07-15-2009 at 06:35 PM.
Classic all-in lead out on the river, we..? ( SNG) Quote
07-15-2009 , 06:57 PM
it doesn't make sense for a small ball player to try to extract value this way. he would need an aggressive image to do that.

also if you're tight and he's a competent thinking player he's probable capable of bluffing, despite his usual style.

his line doesn't convince me.
vs a tight passive donk i would maybe fold, vs a thinking/non-random player i'm more likely to call.
but still, it's close.
Classic all-in lead out on the river, we..? ( SNG) Quote
07-15-2009 , 11:53 PM
I fold this....the reason being is that Im a smallball player and I take this line all day with a flush and get calls all day by two pair hands and win matches all day like this lol....fold and move on, your beat....
Classic all-in lead out on the river, we..? ( SNG) Quote
07-16-2009 , 12:21 AM
well, i guess know we know
thanks for the information...
Classic all-in lead out on the river, we..? ( SNG) Quote

      
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