Quote:
This unexpected leadout is critical. It happens a lot too. He is clearly represented the rivered flush, or maybe slow playing the straight?
It happens a lot in general? Even so, what it means in a given instance is very villain and match dependent. Here for example, the person you've described doesn't seem willing or capable of doing this as a bluff very often -- I'd say almost never with pure air, rarely with T9 type stuff turning itself into a bluff, and not that often with a missed draw, due to the style of player he seems to be, and also the small number of logical missed draws on this board that play this way.
You say he is very passive, slowplays, etc., so really I'm fine assuming a big part of his river range is for value.
Now theoretically that can include a bunch of weaker 2-pairs, like QT/Q8/T8/A8/AT, but I expect them to min-check-raise flop or turn, based on your villain description. And if not, open shoving them on this particular river seems ******ed, so your reads on him should determine if he's capable of it. Or he rivered something like Q5 ... but even then, open shipping it on this board is unusual for a thinking, small-ball player.
Anyway, let's look at river pot odds and a range. You have to call 1105 to win 1755, so are getting 1.58 to 1, needing ~39% equity to break even.
Board: Tc 8d Qc Ad 5c
Wins... Ties.... Equity...
32.47% 0.00% 32.47% ( AcQh )
67.53% 0.00% 67.53% ( KJ(70), Q5(20), QT(15), Q8(15), T8(15), A8(15), AT(15), J9(50), J7(15), JT(15), KT(15), AK(15), T9(15), Kc7c, Kc8c, Kc9c, Jc7c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 9c6c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 6c4c, 4c3c )
The weighted range I gave him is off the top of my head. You actually played him, so if you tweak how often you think he can play worse 2-pair like this, or add some backdoor diamond draws making a bold bluff (if he's floaty on flops), or emphasize one or two spazzy moves with something like AJ or whatever, then you may end up finding the equity you need to call. But I sense it's probably going to be marginal +EV even under the more optimistic scenarios against this guy.
Last edited by lagdonk; 07-15-2009 at 05:22 PM.