Vil is 24/18 and 36% W$SD.

What are you doing OTR? Are you calling a half pot bet on a 4c?

[converted_hand][hand_history]WPN, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $19.63 (196.3 bb)
Hero (BB): $10 (100 bb)
UTG: $10 (100 bb)
MP: $10 (100 bb)
CO: $14.38 (143.8 bb)
BTN: $10.95 (109.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6 9
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 9 8 K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.45) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10

River: ($3.65) 4 (2 players)
Hero?

Could make sense to have a donk range on the river, considering you should probably have more flushes than V, who seems tight-ish. If you b/f 25-35% of pot with your weaker flushes and maybe some hands like JhTx I think it's a pretty good strategy, and will probably get called by a lot of K's

Don't donk river into a reg if that's the question.

I don't know if it's a x/c or a x/r though. It would be a pretty sick spot for him to bluff-shove over your river raise w/ Ah imo. Of course the few times I've tried something like that I've been snap-called by somebody with about your hand strength even though I don't think they should ever be calling w/ just a middling flush.

I'm sure your sample size for that W$SD stat is tiny but if it isn't, you should donk because he looks like a station otr.

Agree with this if that stat is accurate. Otherwise, what I said above. Then again he might be stationing in more standard situations and not this one where another reg donks river into him

Villain will check back a lot of hands that would call a river bet so leading is definitely better.

+1 to donk leading with JT and flushes. I've just started to implement donk leading into my game a little bit (still new to it) but its funny when people spazz out.

makes some sense to have a donking range because he doesn't have a lot of flushes. HJ opening range doesn't have suited gappers and weak suited queens and jacks like a btn or sb range would. suited kings also not possible.

but at the tables, I'd prob donk 1/3p-1/2p if he's a fishy reg to get some value from his check backs and prob c/c and not c/r if he's competent or particularly aggressive. it might look like we don't have flushes here but pretty much all fds play this way so idk.

The river helps us more than villain but I don't think that's reason enough to bet, we have the weaker range still and have a ton of bluffcatchers to protect.

don't know why do you guys think that this river is good for us and that we have more flushes in our range? some FD we should x/r before river, some we should fold OTT, by leading I feel like we can get exploited, if we do feel we will not get exploited, I'm fine with leading

Probably folding preflop

good point, river is actually a bad card for us

def checking

and I'm not sure about pre prob a fold against 3x

Just a question : if we bet only 25-35% pot when we hit our flush, then isn't our call turn bad with low flushes ? I think if we lead, it should be somewhere between 1/2 and 2/3 pot.

Also like Ojune said, I don't think leading into someone with range advantage is a good long term strategy.

pre loses more money than folding for sure.

river good for our hand but terrible for range so xcall.

I think we can have multiple sizes and strategies. Originally I advocated donking small with our small flushes (9h7h, 9h6h, 9hJh, etc.) and balancing this with a small amount of bluffs (might not even be super necessary to add bluffs). We can donk larger with better flushes and a larger bluff ratio if we want.

This gets pretty complex to balance because we also wanna x/c and x/r. So the question becomes what flushes do we want to donk small, which do donk large, which do we want to x/r, and which (if any) do we want to x/c? Then how do we balance those with bluff candidates?? I don't exactly know.

But there's absolutely no way we're gonna get exploited if we donk our small flushes small in this spot at 10NL (and probably up through at least 100NL, and even then they will need a decent sample). Most V's will shrug and call off a lot of their Ks, whereas they would've probably just x'd them back normally.

Assuming villain's a reg I don't think this is true, but maybe I'm giving them too much respect. Would you personally call a river donk from another reg w/ a one pair hand on a flush completing river? I would only do it *if* I saw them doing this very often and thought they were using scare cards to cause me to overfold. It would depend on their river stats and intuition that's hard to quantify.

If I'm in MP with AK/KQ/KJ (especially with a heart) I'm definitely paying off the river if villain donks smallish.

Yep. Pretty much what Arty McFly said. Think you might be giving slightly too much credit to 10NL regs, though this will depend on the site. My experience comes from Ignition/Bovada (where accumulating a large sample on a reg is impossible).

Would you advocate an abnormally high bluffing frequency with a small donk on the river? If your population read is true, then doing that should print money vs. a reg. If you would advocate this, then we just have different opinions on how stationy the population is. If not, your logic is contradictory.