I may have misunderstood you, but I'm pretty sure you're arguing that 4 bet bluffing and folding to a jam with AK is the same as doing it with 72o. Which isn't really true...

I will agree with this, as you have more fold equity with AK as you have 2 blockers.

The difference is, AK has a ton of showdown equity whereas 72o has virtually none.

And just because we're going to fold to a shove means we're bluffing?

What if villain has a wide 3bet range, and responds to 4bets by shoving KK+ and calling everything else? Are we going to miss value preflop with a hand that's ahead of his 3bet range and have to work harder to get it in postflop? Or are we going to call his shove anyway because we "can't" 4b/f a value hand? I don't know that any villains are actually doing this, but...

When opponent has a tight shove range and we're OOP, are we going to fold AK to his 3bet because we're supposed to either 4bet or fold OOP and we don't want to 4bet because of the threat of his shove?

As for 4bet bluffing trash hands, aren't you worried about the possibility of getting called rather than 3bet in the first place?

Is AK overplayed? Yes. It's a semi-bluff with blockers and six outs. It's good to get all in with when you're the aggressor but bad to call with against a tight shoving range, unless a fifth of your stack is already in the middle.

I don't cater to a lot of the "conventional wisdom" here. I don't mind playing a strong hand OOP. I don't believe I have to get all in every time I get AK. I think most of the regs I play that have 10-15-20% and higher 3 bet stats over hundreds and sometimes thousands of hands (and there are TONS of them) are mostly spewing chips. They read on 2+2 it's +EV to 3 bet and 4 bet light a lot. Most of them also have a fold to river aggression of 90-95%. They don't mind sticking a bunch of their chips in the middle early and then folding on a later street. You don't have to build massive pots pre and then hope you get lucky to take their chips. Maybe if I ever get to 100nl or 200nl I'll have to play some of these meta-games, but I don't have to now.

All I said here is that 4 betting and folding AK is not profitable over the long run. The hand has too much equity against most villain's ranges. I wasn't trying to argue any other point.

I hate AK

I think y'all overcomplicating it, just get it in and don't think too much about it. Like if somebody 4bet shoves over my 3b like hell i'm folding AK, snapcall imo. Also 4bet calling AK is really really standard, you seem to be forgetting the point is to pick up villain's 3bet like a 4bet bluff, it just so happens we have such a amazing hand that we can call it off and make more money compared to folding. But then again AK is by far my favorite hand.

If you have purely mathematical question about odds then just use pokerstove and solve it.

uh wut

Never 4b fold anything 100bb deep..

scenario:

You raise to $35, villain 3b $135, You 4b $490, villain shoves... it would be wrong to fold 27 in this scenario, you're getting 3 to 1 on a call you shouldn't fold anything in this scenario so if you 4b just count on going all in no matter what you have.

lol

So we're talking about 1000nl (probably live) in the micro forum?

OK...

No, you don't. You make it like maybe $300, and then lolpotodds doesn't happen.

This is just plain wrong, all kinds of hands have <25% equity against villain's shove range.

Maybe they have really, really loose ranges at 1000nl?

- Easier to give examples with round sums rather than cents here and there (at least for me it is)


OK...


- No you don't or you're laying him great odds to call with pretty much anything, there's nothing he should fold if you 4b for 2x his 3b.


-Ok keep 4b folding...
The examples I told you about are extremes, Its kinda obvious that you're not raising 72o nevermind 4b it. Even 56s has 23% equity preflop against AA.

nice level

56s has more equity pre vs AA than another other hand you monkey. It one hand you should definitely call with!

So let's talk in big blinds.

You raise to 3 with AK, they raise to 10, you raise to 25, they shove.

The pot is now 138bb - rake of let's say 3bb. So 135.

You have to call 75 into a pot of 135, so that's ~55% of the pot. If you know this player is only ever shoving QQ+ and AK then you have just under 40% equity.

So unless my maths are wrong, this is a fold.

There are that bad players somewhere? Even at NL5 players responded to 4bets mostly by folding or shoving. Even they aren't just calling 4bets requlary.

Not really. Very few of the bad players even are calling 4bets. Even they usually just fold or go allin. Getting called is least of my worries. Whether opponent is 3betting wide enough and is willing to fold sufficient amount of those rather than 5betting allin with AT, KQ, 77 type of hands is.

Sure if you put him on range tighter than KK+, AK. Against that range you get odds to call.

Hopefully his 3bet range is sufficiently wide then that it's worth turning AK into bluff by 4betting him then...Because if he has range to 5bet tighter than above odds are he's not 3betting all that wide either and you should just fold your AK to his 3bet.

voted 5*s

I don't know where you play but on STARS NL10, some people do call 4bets... maybe not regularly but on occasions especially with a hand like JJ. Some people can't fold JJ no matter what and they can't shove JJ facing a 4bet so they call. I've seen some people do it with TT and once in a while AQs.

in general on the preflop people wont go all in without the goods, the bullets, the pocket rockets, the american airlines

sometimes they might go all in with the cowboys

but calling all in with big slick is bad, because all the sharks expect you to call all in with the big slick. so why would they go all in with the ladies or the hooks and risk a coinflip?

just think about the pokerz buddy.

Yes keyword being SOME. Most won't atleast on my stars nl10 tables.

I wouldn't count on getting called to your 4bet. My 4bets have been flatted just twice so far and one was by newbie who had like 20 hands under him...

bump for more discussion

@ subs, just wondering what you think about my initial assumptions?