he's opening 85% and barreling a LOT on the flop and turn. like cbetting 75% 2barreling 60% over 150-200 hands. river is a super crappy bluffcard for him, but otoh his range is so wide, a lot of crap missed, and i haven't rly been superstationy vs him, so i don't know what to do. fwiw he can valuebet thin

anyone folding turn with 50% equity vs his range given his river play advantage?


BTN/SB: $2011.50
Hero (BB): $686.50

Pre Flop: ($9.00) Hero is BB with A 5
BTN/SB raises to $12, Hero calls $6

Flop: ($24.00) 8 2 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $24.00, Hero calls $24

Turn: ($72.00) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $64.00, Hero calls $64

River: ($200.00) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB bets $156.00

You're not much ahead of any type of value range, even a thin one. I think folding turn and waiting for a slightly better hand to be calling 3 streets with might be best, assuming you're going to be getting a big bet thrown at you.
As it is, the river Q isn't such a bad card, so Im ok with calling the river against a bluffing maniac firing the %'s you've given.

is this his std sizing? appears more polarizing than usual but if u think he can be thin here i dont know about calling turn, this is like the nut river that doesn't improve our hand and we still don't really like it...

I would fold PF

calling turn looks fine and folding river seems fine as well.

fold pre, fold river. If the villain is half-decent he knows how aggressive he is and he can have lots of 8s here.

pre was a minraise...dont fold

- I'm not big on pre, but it's obv not a mistake.
- flop standard.
- turn is standard. He is barreling the queen with a high enough frequency to make profitable IMHO. His value range here is likely:
Sets, 99+, 8x, Qx
Semibluffs:
A3/A4, diamonds, 67, 69, 47, 46, 79...god...a lot.
Just a ton of hands have their feet in this flop somehow, and I think that if you add air to the range, you almost definitely have equity.

- I fold river, unless he throws the third barrel very often. He must realize the Q is a terrible card.

Edit: didn't see preflop sizing. Obv don't fold.

He's opening 80%+ of buttons and you wanna fold A5o vs a minraise, that's crazy.

As played, without a read he's also very bluffy on boards which develop in a way it really doesn't help your perceived folding range or his perceived value range, I'd rather fold. At least that's my opinion when a board develops like this, it really doesn't make for a good bluffspot at first sight (without lots of leveling).

Calling turn is fine I guess, his 2nd barrel range is going to consist of lots of gutters, flushdraws, complete air etc. Also, he's going to check some rivers, you will be able to call some rivers and you improve some % of the time.

does anybody think c/r flop, c/c turn, c/f river is much more money vs someone like this?

i considered c/r flop given he makes it so hard to c/c but it seems like almost all players that make it hard to c/c will also make it hard to c/r so i don't know if that's better. c/r c/c seems crazy

sizing was std for him, also why do you think it'd make him more polarized?

i realize the Q is a bad card for him to bluff on, but on the other hand he has so many possible bluffcombinations he doesn't have to bluff it often at all with his air...

just the type of sizing i see a lot from draws and big hands, not from 99 (referring to flop+turn, river is pretty normal)

I would call

Ah hell might as well click call

id prob fold the turn vs him because he would probly fire any river which would be too difficult for us
as played otr is a super easy call with all the missed draws and the board making life easy for us

if he has the 8 so be it, wp sir

if i were to call turn, it would probly be against 2 types of villains who opens 90%+ buttons, flop cbets 65-80%, turn cbets 60%+

1st villain would have to give up on a lot of rivers (not capable of following thru with bluffs)
2nd villain would have to be checking rivers with value hands (making his range polarized when betting turn) obv snap call river brick when they bet

if the villain value bets super thinly i think its tougher ( in the sense that he could vbet this river with 66/77 and 8s ofc )

sorry, you fail at poker if you fold this turn

did some math and we probably can't fold the turn. we don't have a pure bluffcatcher we can improve and that seems to make enough of a difference. if we c/c c/f all non improving rivers he only has to check river back 18% (and we have to be good obv) on the other cards to make it a turn call, and it seems like that will happen, he'll barrel river a lot but surely not 100%?