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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO (100BBs) [VPIP: 22.4% | PFR: 16.9% | AGG: 31.5% | Flop Agg: 32.6% | Turn Agg: 35.7% | River Agg: 32.7% | 3-Bet: 7.4% | 4-Bet: 16% | Hands: 278061]
BB (98.6BBs) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 33.3% | Flop Agg: 100% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 100% | Hands: 2]
HJ (96.7BBs) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 2]
CO (98BBs) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 2]
BTN (103.1BBs) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 2]

Dealt to Hero: 7 Q

HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To 3BBs, BB Calls 2BBs

Hero SPR on Flop: [15.93 effective]
Flop (6BBs): 4 K 9
HERO Checks, BB Bets 2BBs (Rem. Stack: 93.6BBs), HERO Raises To 9.5BBs (Rem. Stack: 87.5BBs), BB Calls 7.5BBs (Rem. Stack: 86.1BBs)

Turn (25BBs): 4 K 9 6
HERO Bets 18.3BBs (Rem. Stack: 69.2BBs), BB Calls 18.3BBs (Rem. Stack: 67.8BBs)

River (61.5BBs): 4 K 9 6 2
HERO Bets 69.2BBs (allin)

I think the problem with this line is he just has so much Kx based on preflop and even more once we get to the river like this. I don't even think most naked FD's call the turn bet and now everything missed.

Blocking KQ doesnt mean much when preflop is the widest range spot in 6max.

BB's turn range construction is interesting. It seems like he would want some sort of jamming range on the double FD board.

I think we don't want hearts/spades in our hands either so maybe QJ/QT/JT make some sense to bluff since those could be the top of his calling range OTT.

Would be interesting to see a solve here though. I think we need to be very careful with our bluffs here since it seems like a spot where BB would just put you on a FD and overcall + the prevalence of off suit King's in his range.

I know backdoors like QTs, JTs, C/R here pretty often, not sure this combo is the best for it. Once those combos C/R they do keep barrelling at some percentage. Considering all straight and flush draws bricked out by the river not sure it's best to jam as most opponents will come to that conclusion and just call you down since they've already come this far.

I think I tend to get carried away with bluffs in these blind battles. Usually to my detriment

My logic/mistake is I also think villain can have all those draws, and since a lot of them beat me, I feel obligated to bluff it off.

Flop and turn look okay too me if you don't do it too much.
But river you have to xf imo. You are blocking his folds with your spades and don't block any value. River is complete brick too. Not a good combo.

Probably not great against what's probably a fish.

think double flush draw turns are different, spades likely better to shove otr than hearts

wouldn't be surprised to see the solver shoving a few hearts but it probably has a reasonable checking range with all sorts of draws ott so it doesn't get to the river with nearly as many intuitive turn barrel hands

flop is probably already close

100% this. I don’t see home folding any K and who knows, he may look you up even lighter.

GTOwiz never x/r's this combo fwiw, it bets 50% of the time, and when it checks it mixes between call and fold depending on BB sizing (obv the fact that its BB is playing multiple sizings when our villain probably isn't is a reason not to take this as gospel but yeah). My inclination before looking at that was that this is low enough in our Qx range that we can just bet it most of the time and not worry about the fact that its mostly folding out "worse" hands, but then again I think betting wide for 1/3p tends to overperform in general because villains often don't raise enough and/or overfold.

Wiz doesn't have an analog to the rest of the hand because its flop x/r sizes are 100% and 50% whereas you went right in between. I looked at the 100% tree because it does that one slightly more often, and it likes your turn and river play with roughly similar hands (it has Q3ss a low frequency ott and barrels it off like this), the takeaway from that being that when you raise big otf villain folds his bdfd to the x/r so having spades the rest of the hand doesn't really matter much (Q/J/T specifically matter a Bit because he can find some calls with QJss JTss QTss specifically otf, but since that's not many villain combos they don't matter enough that having just one of those cards stops you), and you only want to avoid bluffing hearts. But obviously when we start raising smaller he's gonna call with more bdfd otf and then it gets dicier to bluff with them on later streets. So that's something to think about.

Good piece of advice I heard lately; particularly in B v B spots, after three 'streets' of action villain's range is too strong to bluff. 'Streets' here meaning betting actions rather than acutal streets. So after he b/c's the flop (2/3) and calls turn (3/3), we should rarely if ever fire river

After thinking about this hand for a bit. I think you just shouldn't have a xr range here.

A few reason's why:

1) MDA show's us Ace/King high boards are under stabbed from the BB. Especially rainbow boards but 2t as well.

2) A solver xr's less than 8% here vs a 1/3 and even less vs bigger sizing

3) Not XRing is NOT a fundamental mistake. Every hand is mixed (save for 44) so it doesn't affect our EV to just call instead of xr.

4) Population under double stabs on Ace/King rainbow boards so our flop calls over perform by realizing more equity.

5) It's easier to play and we will make less mistakes on future streets since we know we x/c everything we continue with

Interesting. I do see lighter call downs in blind battles.

Cool thanks for that!

If we're going to x/r a hand with as little equity as this one, we want to maximize villain's b/f combos. On this board specifically his b/f combos are going to be gutshots, backdoors, and air, which we block all of. He also didn't 3bet pre, so we can probably further reduce that by some combos of QJs, QTs, JTs. I wouldn't want to have a 7 or a Q on this board. All of those factors make his betting range is condense around Kx and hearts, which isn't going to fold. I would just bet this hand and use some wheel aces if I was going to have a x/r bluffing range.