yeah its weird. im still not certain that c/c turn and lead river exploits his turn betting range as much as it exploits his (potentially imbalanced) river play. i get that the widened river range will be a result of not raising the turn but i think he's going to get a bunch of +ev stabs on the turn that shouldn't be if you're check raising to exploit him over stabbing. do we make up that ev by putting people in a bizarre river spot in an anon pool where they're likely to assume incorrect things about your skill level? maybe but i dont think im going to be able to get pio to show that without spending an absurd amount of time on nodelocks.

yeah i mean the problem here is this isn't really an overfold unless hes truly stabbing 100% ott. that's why the non all in sizing is preferred i think

it feels like we're choosing the worst of all possible worlds where you're not actually exploiting the turn overstab but still just jamming into a range that can play intuitively vs a jam here. the hand u reverse posted on like q54 6 makes alot more sense because button just doesn't have enough good hands to be able to deal with putting in stacks. with all this being said maybe its a great line with Ahxo

Yeah i wasn't advocating getting rid of check-raises. This is a unique spot in general since we want to check a ton OTT and when BTN stabs our xr becomes awkward with stacks.

yeah it seems like it would take a ton of time to figure out. Like I said earlier - this hand came up in game and caught my eye but I probably won't try to formulate a strategy using donk leads. Maybe one day.

What are your thought's on this line except BTN checks back OTT. River comes a blank and then BB checks again - do we see BTN value betting hands like 99/77/66 OTR?

I would default to assuming that whoever played this line isn't doing a ton of thinking

Seems like a good bluff spot then do you agree?

Also do you think BTN value bets 99/77/66 if instead BTN checks turn and river comes like 2o and BB checks again OTR

pio says ~33% of the time w no h for 99, 0% for 77/66 but i think 99 gets bet somewhere on either the turn or river at ssnl since xrs and xcs by stronger hands dont show up as often and i dont think people study later street play (which is why most people overstab the turns). i think 77 / 66 get xed

idk I think I fold basically the same hands vs. ship x/r as I do vs. donk ship. That's also probably gto-ish (might actually be too much calling), so I don't really see an exploit.

I could see population value-ing 99 here, but I don't think I would

Could be different at 100nl, but I find regs tend to station more vs lines that don't make a ton of sense.

The exploit is I keep all your weak hands in by just calling and then put them in tough spots OTR with small sizing

yeah i agree.

It's interesting just thinking about ways to exploit.

If you just think about poker from a macro point of view - everyone gets similar cards. So the way we make money is by getting our opponent's to either call with worse or fold better.

People in general are risk averse so bluffing as a default will make more money. But then if you play someone who also thinks like you - trapping more often will make more money.

Let's take this to an extreme.

If we are playing weaker players we can just over bluff every line with a check in it.

So for example

We have AK on the T84tt board we cbet range OTF villain calls.

Turn is a blank say a 2o - we check/Villain checks back

River is 3o - We can just ship here always and some people will just range fold.

I think that is one of the fundamental keys to having a high winrate - you can't play small ball. Whenever there are checks in the other person line you need to threaten their stack.

It's almost paradoxical but by risking your stack more often with weak holdings - the more money you make.

I don't think I'm betting turn with SDV that's worse than Tx though. So if you bet river small I think i just shrug call with Tx+

yeah it doesn't work as well if players don't over stab turn.

I only like this line vs over aggro regs I think

I might over-stab in game, but it's probably with air

im on board with explo plays i just dont think it works on a board where the defender ends up with a ton of nutted hands (which is why we end up checking the turn anyways)

i think something like paired boards where trips are underrepresented is potentially a better application of this line but at that point why not just bet bet bet

Hey doodoo what does your 3b range look like preflop? I'd be coming close to range checking flop but I'm 3b something like 14% bb v btn so it'd be Ludacris to range bet.

In any case I think having some flop checks is good here unless your 3b like 3%

It's like 13% or so.

range checking doesn't make a ton of sense since a bunch of hands in your range want to bet.

The Ten gives all your overcards additional equity so it's a bit different than a 9 high board.

Ah you're overbluffing m8. You've got air like 85% of the time here and btn has a very narrow range with all of the sets that you don't have