villain in the hand is more/less completely unknown... ive never seen his name before or played hands with him. Weve been at the table together for 1 or 2 orbits in which he has folded 100% preflop so he seems pretty snug/tag.

I guess it's one of those spots where he knows i'm going to be looking him up the vast majority of the time given the board/his line/and river brick --> hence the overbet to make it look bluffy. is this a pretty trivial call or do some of you guys let'er go?

fwiw he timebanked a solid 30-40 seconds before jamming

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $20.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($5925.50)
Hero (UTG) ($4003)
MP ($3826.65)
Button ($6434.40)
SB ($1498.20)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 10
Hero bets $60, 3 folds, BB calls $40

Flop: ($145) 2, 10, 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $120, BB raises to $340, Hero calls $220

Turn: ($825) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $620, Hero calls $620

River: ($2065) 6 (2 players)
BB bets $4902.50 (All-In) Hero....

(~2.9k to me)

Tough spot... You'd need to call this about 40% of the time. Combinations of sets aren't as likely as T9 and KK+, so I guess you can't really fold this 100%. It's prob a call 100% of the time, as I'd rather fold 22.

interesting. time bank makes me want to call, feels like he was deciding whether or not he could shove for value with QQ or something (sounds like he'd flat pre bb vs. utg this deep).

it's a nice/unexpected bank with 22 or 55. and i don't think he's bluffing really. but i can't fold if he has overpairs in his range here esp. with the timing.

/thread

i agree that JJ+ is certainly in his range on the turn, but u really think we can keep those hands in his range after he overbet jams this? Seems way too optimistic to me.

I think it's too optimistic aswell; why would he flat QQ-JJ pre, but overbet jam this river?

This.

If he's any good, there's pretty much 0% chance he's valuebetting worse.

is it bad to raise on the turn here?

nuggetz, have u taken to levelling?

this is 1 of those spots KOC was talkin abt where u have a monster and its a complete bluffcatcher, i think i'd have to sulk-fold.

agree with jude. maybe he thinks a shove looks bluffy and if he's an unknown to SA chances are jude is an unknown to him.

I dunno I always get shown 78ss here.

also, maybe reverse timing tell if he knows what he's doing?

well like i said i would not fold if he has overpairs in his range. maybe i'm off. if you think he only has 22 and 55 then fold.

I would fold here, extremely seldom someone uses the timebank than puts in a big bluff. So he is doing this for value and I don't think his value is wide enough to make this into a +EV call.

Also why would he overbet bluff here if he were bluffing?

Cud def have TT too.

i disagree that he can't have bluffs in his range. granted they aren't a huge portion of his range but he certainly looks like he's trying to leverage FE. if he had any number of bricked draws this may be the only way he could see himself winning the pot.

it also would seem to be fairly unlikely he has 66/99. unless hes spazzing. so 22/55/TT/78ss(?), bluffs, and i don't really know what else i can assign to his value range, unless hes trying to make you hero call with something.

its certainly not easy. some days im calling this some days im folding, i dunno. i could see it going either way.

Seems reaaaally close but I think that he could have some combos of KK+, 65s, plus 2 FDs missed. With the T blocker I call, I think it's close enough that I'd fold AA without any more info.

The fact that he is an unknown makes me want to call. Regs know regs hate folding!

he could have a set or JJ+ hands, I would never think he is bluff here its pretty much a coinflip on the river
I would fold actually, but if u excited, call haha~

wow a tough hand. Has he shown any tendency to slowplay big pairs oop? I'd let it go otherwise. Looks like 22 or 55 or maybe rivered straight with flush draw going for max value.

this thread is funny because if hero had JT everyone would say ''fold''. since river didn't change hero's hand, just fold. or someone think villain has T5? lol. If river changed something, helped villain (87s), not hero.

and overpairs don't play this way w/o history. never... maybe if villain was better and if villain had a read that hero is good, but w/o any history, come on, he never do this w/ overpairs.

just a side note, i also fold 22 on river.

the timing actually really scares me, id bet he has 78ss somehow here

edit: i can still never bring myself to fold to a random here though, even if hes been playing tight for 2 orbits just bc of how many random spazz bluffs ive encountered from unkowns in similar spots, and ive definately had unkowns overshove AA in this type of spot

*nitting* Don't think river is a brick, 34 gets there. *nitting*
There are quite alot of air hands he could show up with here (more then his value range) KJs,QJs,Axs and ofc KQ
I dunno if I can give him credit for pulling a big bluff with those hands though.

I'm worried of TT,22 and 55.

Right, I think he's going for straight value here and I do think he expects KK to call or at leasts hopes that KK makes the hero call.

Man, how can you call the flop and be folding when draws brick with top two.

watttt @ excluding overpairs. that's prob his most likely holding given positions and how he's been folding pre. Unless he has no brain, that is.

its prob his most likely holding? and your reasoning is because a) its UTG vs BB and b) hes folded his last 8 hands or w/e? i really dont get it.

I think there are some good responses ITT, but i think in general people are vastly underestimating the amount of bricked draws he has (i.e. any overs with spades, Axss, etc.). These are primarily the hands I am trying to pick off IMO....not overpairs. I just can't understand someone justifying a call here with "oh, i call he can have JJ+" after the dude ships 3k into 2k pot.

fwiw i also agree with jreezy that the timebank scared the **** out of me as opposed to making me think he was going for thin value.

Given this how is the flop call not awful? Your equity is going to be terrible vs his range and a decent amount of the time you're going to be vs sets. Maybe I just suck at playing deep but surely don't give action to nits is the cardinal ****ing rule?

Also just lol at putting him on an overpair in this spot, is he supposed to be turning it into a bluff? He's a nit. His range will be mega-polarised, you're either going to see a set (or maybe T9) or a bluff.

This, pretty much. If calling the flop is so great, how come you aren't jizzing in your pants and pounding the snapcall button now you've hit your gin card? Agonising over this river decision is an admission that you should have got the hell out of dodge on the flop.

oh fk. In some weird way I read it as river pairing the board. Now im with u, I don't think he's holding overpairs that much. I'm also in the line of him timebanking makes this more of a fold than a call.