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Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Bottom set facing check/shove on the river

01-17-2010 , 10:31 AM
Villain in the hand is diatty, playing 20/16/3.5. I don't have much history with him, except for the fact that he owned me 30 minutes ago on another table making me shove AQo in his AA pre(he min5bet over my min4bet and i shipped it). Although he should see me as being capable of bet/folding this river.

I don't know if he could be turning a hand like ATs into a bluff or if he could play TT-99 like this. I know it looks like QJs. Anyways im confused and need help.

Poker Stars $5/$10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (UTG): $1168.00
CO: $210.00
BTN: $519.00
SB: $1195.10
BB: $1000.00

Pre Flop: ($15.00) Hero is UTG with 5 5
Hero raises to $30, 3 folds, BB calls $20

Flop: ($65.00) T 9 5 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $45, BB calls $45

Turn: ($155.00) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $135, BB calls $135

River: ($425.00) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $350, BB raises to $790 all in, Hero ?
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-17-2010 , 11:04 AM
It doesnt make much sense to bluf here given info so I fold because all valuecombo's u beat cr turn or cc river
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-17-2010 , 11:07 AM
I don't see myself laying this down getting insane odds to call.
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-17-2010 , 02:46 PM
You have to call due to potodds.

I would bet $225 on river so i can:
a) fold to a c/shove against unimaginative villains
b) give crazy villains space for spazzing out
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-17-2010 , 03:25 PM
your river bets too big, I'd go $275. As played fold.
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-17-2010 , 03:43 PM
i bet the river big because i want to barrel that turn a lot with draws. i'd call the river bc there are only 4 reasonable combos of hands for villain to show up with and we're getting a ridiculous price on a call.
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-17-2010 , 04:54 PM
I dont think river bet is too big at all and you should def be making big river bluffs with double barrled draws to get him to fold pairs. As played its sick man but really besides QJhh what do you lose to? Call

edit: Also if big river bet i no good because villain doesnt fold one pair than you should be making big value bets with AT+ also, what Im saying is I think river bet sizing is fine, since you want to be bluffing here and also vb thin. If you dont want to be bluffing, then I guess 275ish is ok
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-17-2010 , 05:42 PM
I like your bet sizing on every street. I think his range for cr'ing here would only be QJ or sometype of backdoor flush draw that missed. But given the fact that he didnt cr the flop I think we can discount Txhh and 5xhh, also because you have 55 cause of card removal. I could see him having a hand like QJhh which allowed him to call the turn. I do not think his range is a higher set or two pair here cause he would have put a raise in on the turn probably unless you had some history or something and he was trying to be tricky. I dont see anything you are beating except a double air float oop so I think its a fold here. Players dont usually cr bluff all in for almost a lil more than a min raise on the river. I think pot odds go out the window in this spot considering you would have to be correct alot more than I think you are giong to be by calling here.
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-17-2010 , 06:26 PM
normally i wouldnt think much and call but...
- your bet looks like you dont fold when he raises because you bet so big
- he will never bluff here
- the only hand that he mb can have is T8 that you beat
-> sad but i think i fold here

"some times there are only a very few hand combos that beat you, but there are still less combos of other hands that he play this way "
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-17-2010 , 06:41 PM
Don't see him ever bluffing here and I don't think you're in good enough shape against his value range. I'd fold. Exploitable? Yeah. Exploited? Probably not.
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-18-2010 , 02:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick Royale
Don't see him ever bluffing here and I don't think you're in good enough shape against his value range. I'd fold. Exploitable? Yeah. Exploited? Probably not.
agreed
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-18-2010 , 02:59 AM
w/o history im leaning towards call.

ya QJ is most obvious i guess 76 got there but would be gross to flat those awful odds on a bot gutter.

idk for him to c/s the river without the board "improving" thats something worth losing 100 BB to when you hold a set. TBH ya QJ but my first impression was T8s controlling the pot till a better option.

call this once, and if hes any good at adjusting, dont call again.
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-18-2010 , 03:11 AM
Call, expect to be good > 22% of the time, take a note if he doesn't have QJ because nothing else makes sense. Folding when only exactly one hand makes sense, QJhh, plus the occasional 99/TT is burning money.
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-18-2010 , 03:58 AM
i think this is a bluff about never, i fold in theory and call in play, cause i suck
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-18-2010 , 05:15 AM
i call, cant see him bluffing here but you cant be 100% sure that hes not !
he can make weird plays with T9 what ever i never fold for that price !
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-18-2010 , 06:04 AM
you're never good here by calling, i doubt villain is doing it w/ 9T or T8. just fold. of course, everyone here's gonna tell u to call cuz zomg you has a set and noone in nl600 ever folds a set.
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-19-2010 , 07:16 AM
really hate your sizing but at least it makes it an easier fold
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-19-2010 , 08:20 AM
wish I was good enough to fold =(
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote
01-19-2010 , 08:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick Royale
Don't see him ever bluffing here and I don't think you're in good enough shape against his value range. I'd fold. Exploitable? Yeah. Exploited? Probably not.
Bottom set facing check/shove on the river Quote

      
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