Hi everybody,

So, lately I have been called every single time I try to bluff the river with miss draws at NL10. I basically bluff-shove river once every 1000 hands on average (I am probably underbluffing, mostly because at this stakes you have lots of Calling Stations). I am starting to ask myself, is this anywhere profitable to keep doing it. Should I just never bluff til I play higher stakes?

I give you this example, and my thinking process below:

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 81.7 BB
SB: 105.7 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 259.4 BB
Hero (MP): 180 BB
CO: 79.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A T

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 12 BB, fold, Hero calls 9.5 BB

Flop: (25 BB, 2 players) 9 J 2
SB bets 6 BB, Hero calls 6 BB

Turn: (37 BB, 2 players) Q
SB bets 22.5 BB, Hero calls 22.5 BB

River: (82 BB, 2 players) Q
SB checks, Hero bets 139.5 BB and is all-in, SB calls 65.2 BB and is all-in

Hero shows A T (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 30%, Flop 20%, Turn 16%)
SB shows K A (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 70%, Flop 80%, Turn 84%)
SB wins 202.8 BB

Villain here is a TAG 24 VPIP 19 PFR and WTSD 25

On the flop he bets 1/4. We have some backdoor equity so I decided to call.

On the Turn he bets 2/3 pot. We picked up Open ended straight, so we call.

On the River, villain checks to us, and here, I dont think he's got a Q, so I put him on some miss flush draws like T9s,AKs and AKo type of hands. I shove here, representing Qx hands, KT... and having a T (Blocking straights) and not having spades (Not blocking suited spades hands from villain) villain thinks for a second, and calls with AKo. It happen to me in a very similar fashion every time I bluff this kind of spots. Villain always finds hero call with Bluff catchers. What am I doing wrong?

I have 99s, JJs, AQ, AJs, KJs, KTs, KQs, QJs...in my range, but he still calls?

Disclaimer, I am learning, I am no pro or even close to it whatsoever, so please, be kind with me here hehe

Thank you in advance!
Thank you

Probably because he's not thinking this deeply - and just had a "gut" feeling you were bluffing, or maybe it was a missclick? Either way in the future you can absolutely print by heavily skewing towards value (or maybe just hard exploit and pure value) against this player assuming they try to do this again in spots like this.

I usually lean towards folding on the turn, but I'd consider calling with hands that have a flush draw or a pair plus a draw as a default strategy.

It's also reasonable to call with a plan to bluff on the river.

I think your bluff is fine, especially considering your opponent's stats.

At these stakes, many opponents struggle to fold because they feel compelled to seek answers and are willing to pay a small price to satisfy their curiosity.

Make a note of these players and focus more on value betting than bluffing against them. Thin value bets could be quite profitable in these situations.

Sounds like you're having a bit of a winge to be honest mate.

Hand seems fine. Probaly unlucky to get called but you also know it's going to happen more than it should. Do you think regs fold more as you move up? If you're going to adopt an aggro style you have to get used to it. The more confident you are that your play is perfectly callibrated as per exploitation and GTO the easier all that will be.

Alternatively, just don't bluff shove. It isn't a deal-breaker at 10nl no.

There is also the possibility that villain saw you bluffing on a prior hand. Non thinking players at micros will sometimes see someone get caught bluffing and immediately label them as a bluffer and will subsequently call off with all kinds of crap hands just because “He is a bluffer; he probably doesn’t have anything.”

Obviously such types are easily exploitable. Get caught bluffing intentionally. Then take them to value town. There are some who will stack off 4-5 times or more and still think you are just bluffing all the time.

The important thing to remember though is to not fall into the trap of thinking that you can’t win with all these bad players around. I need to move up and play against better opponents. You absolutely can beat the bad players. You just need to adjust your strategy to match them, not try to force a predetermined strategy. If players are calling too much, bluff less. A lot less. Think about it; if you were playing someone who you knew would call any bet at any time, how often would you bluff?

If you called turn w/ the plan of bluffing missed rivers, then fine. I'd lean towards folding turn in a 3bet pot, but I think your bluff is fine. I can't imagine what range he's putting you on there that missed and is now bluffing. BD call by him.

Thanks everybody for your insights. Really thankful folks

WP turn is a pure call in theory
Some regs like to hero call on river where all draw miss. Sometimes thats good spot to call, this is not one of those spots because you have very few missed draws given the PF ranges.

Do you have any additional information on villain?

How many hands is your sample? Is villain really a TAG or just has TAG-ish opening stats? What do they 3-bet in this situation (SB vs MP)? Do they play aggressively as the pre-flop raiser in 3-bet pots?

Also is pre-flop and/or turn not a fold here? No one seems to discuss this. Am I missing something? Happy to be educated here.