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01-30-2024 , 12:28 PM
#1
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Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 2(BB)
HERO ($226.53) [VPIP: 29% | PFR: 24.1% | AGG: 36.7% | Flop Agg: 41.7% | Turn Agg: 33.8% | River Agg: 37% | 3Bet: 11.5% | 4Bet: 14.2% | Hands: 313748]
SB ($200) [VPIP: 40% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 46.2% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 66.7% | 3Bet: 10% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 100% | Hands: 20]
BB ($305.50) [VPIP: 15.4% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 26]
UTG ($200) [VPIP: 37.5% | PFR: 12.5% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 8]
HJ ($200) [VPIP: 46.2% | PFR: 42.3% | AGG: 15.4% | Hands: 27]
CO ($200) [VPIP: 31.3% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 17]

Dealt to Hero: A 4

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $5, SB Raises To $20, BB Folds, HERO Calls $15

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.29 effective]
Flop ($42): J 2 5
SB Bets $12 (Rem. Stack: $168), HERO Calls $12 (Rem. Stack: $194.53)

Turn ($66): J 2 5 9
SB Checks, HERO Checks

River ($66): J 2 5 9 6
SB Bets $40 (Rem. Stack: $128), HERO Raises To $194.53 (allin)
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01-30-2024 , 01:26 PM
#2
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In theory this is 3bb mistake. When you raise river you usually pick hands that are close to being calls, not just random junk and on top of that you want to unblock folds. This hand blocks folds and it's pure fold.

You can bet turn and jam rivers that are good for you like this one. Think that's much nicer line.
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01-30-2024 , 01:43 PM
#3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Haizemberg93
In theory this is 3bb mistake. When you raise river you usually pick hands that are close to being calls, not just random junk and on top of that you want to unblock folds. This hand blocks folds and it's pure fold.

You can bet turn and jam rivers that are good for you like this one. Think that's much nicer line.
What folds is he blocking other than AJ/AA?

I like bet turn, jam river better too, but how is it that much different than this line?
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01-30-2024 , 01:50 PM
#4
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A7 A8 AT maybe even AQ

Lines are different, with B-B we fold out TT 9x AK AQ, with raise we are attacking Jx+ parto of the range.
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01-30-2024 , 02:04 PM
#5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Haizemberg93
In theory this is 3bb mistake. When you raise river you usually pick hands that are close to being calls, not just random junk and on top of that you want to unblock folds. This hand blocks folds and it's pure fold.

You can bet turn and jam rivers that are good for you like this one. Think that's much nicer line.
In my opinion, C-B-B line as a bluff is pretty bad vs any decent reg. It's way overbluffed, especially in these formations.

I have it as around a 2bb mistake but all you need is for them to fold 2% over MDF and it's a winning play. And they overfold more than that.

2%(Raise + Bet + Pot) = ($194.53) + $40 + $66 = (2%)$300.53 = ~6 bucks or 3bb win
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01-30-2024 , 02:53 PM
#6
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You can't just blindly look at the line board is more important. I don't think regs will calldown lightly on board and runouts that are good for you.

Blocker effects are no joke in such tight reange spots. I would start with pure rasing mixed hands. This is almost negative freeroll if he plays well you lose if he overfolds you breakeven.
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01-30-2024 , 03:05 PM
#7
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This doesn't look like a board where anyone decent is going to fold a J or better.
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01-30-2024 , 06:03 PM
#8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
In my opinion, C-B-B line as a bluff is pretty bad vs any decent reg. It's way overbluffed, especially in these formations.

I have it as around a 2bb mistake but all you need is for them to fold 2% over MDF and it's a winning play. And they overfold more than that.

2%(Raise + Bet + Pot) = ($194.53) + $40 + $66 = (2%)$300.53 = ~6 bucks or 3bb win
Even if C B B is overbluffed, does it matter if villain doesnt know that? How many villains are aware of that, and even if they are would they still call?

Plus theres board texture right. If that C B B line is overbluffed, it might not be on this texture. On this board, it seems the MDA would conflict because how often is population checking back flushes on the turn? I would guess not a lot.
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01-30-2024 , 06:39 PM
#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YanasaurBBQ
Even if C B B is overbluffed, does it matter if villain doesnt know that? How many villains are aware of that, and even if they are would they still call?

Plus theres board texture right. If that C B B line is overbluffed, it might not be on this texture. On this board, it seems the MDA would conflict because how often is population checking back flushes on the turn? I would guess not a lot.
It basically just depends on how knowledgeable the reg is, there are some very good 200nl regs from my experience. And if he knows this, my bluff is a pure punt.

It's still overbluffed on FCT board texture, there's not much difference between that and the aggregate.
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01-30-2024 , 06:47 PM
#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Haizemberg93
A7 A8 AT maybe even AQ

Lines are different, with B-B we fold out TT 9x AK AQ, with raise we are attacking Jx+ parto of the range.
Ya, maybe we add one or two of those as a bluff. Doesn't seem like a good sizing to go w/ after the turn gets checked through. BXB, especially w/ this river sizing is very value heavy.
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01-30-2024 , 06:49 PM
#11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
In my opinion, C-B-B line as a bluff is pretty bad vs any decent reg. It's way overbluffed, especially in these formations.

I have it as around a 2bb mistake but all you need is for them to fold 2% over MDF and it's a winning play. And they overfold more than that.

2%(Raise + Bet + Pot) = ($194.53) + $40 + $66 = (2%)$300.53 = ~6 bucks or 3bb win
It definitely is over bluffed... but the runout does matter a lot here in terms of getting folds, which I'm assuming the pop would be over folding despite the data.
Last edited by FreakDaddy; 01-30-2024 at 06:59 PM.
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01-30-2024 , 06:59 PM
#12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FreakDaddy
It definitely is over bluffed... but the runout does matter a lot here. If you locked it in to a low board like this when a flush completes, I don't think you're getting the same over bluffed numbers.
Low boards are bluffed more overall not less though.

So my numbers are coming from a Hand2Note DB of 245 million hands. I have C-B-B on FCT at 33 weak and aggregate is 35 weak, so it is underbluffed relative to the aggregate but still overbluffed.

Sample is over 6k hands for this line so we can be statistically confident.

Tombo's showed me a cool tool he made where you put in your hand sample and what GTO is and then it says the odds of it being GTO.


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01-30-2024 , 07:00 PM
#13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
Low boards are bluffed more overall not less though.

So my numbers are coming from a Hand2Note DB of 245 million hands. I have C-B-B on FCT at 33 weak and aggregate is 35 weak, so it is underbluffed relative to the aggregate but still overbluffed.

Sample is over 6k hands for this line so we can be statistically confident.

Tombo's showed me a cool tool he made where you put in your hand sample and what GTO is and then it says the odds of it being GTO.
Apparently I edited at the same time you posted. I meant it would be over folded, despite the fact it's bluffed more. Not sure what the offset is exactly.
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01-30-2024 , 07:29 PM
#14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
In my opinion, C-B-B line as a bluff is pretty bad vs any decent reg. It's way overbluffed, especially in these formations.

I have it as around a 2bb mistake but all you need is for them to fold 2% over MDF and it's a winning play. And they overfold more than that.

2%(Raise + Bet + Pot) = ($194.53) + $40 + $66 = (2%)$300.53 = ~6 bucks or 3bb win
I don't understand why you'd look at whether a line you're taking is overbluffed instead of whether regs overfolds to it unless you had a tell they had an MDA style of play.
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01-30-2024 , 07:38 PM
#15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TripleBerryJam
I don't understand why you'd look at whether a line you're taking is overbluffed instead of whether regs overfolds to it unless you had a tell they had an MDA style of play.
There's not a big overfold in B30-XC-XF and ignition population calls something like 2%-3% more than on other sites.

There's definitely metagame going on, even on anonymous sites. If I see someone do a bunch of reggy things wrt to sizing then I'm less likely to use standard MDA lines on them because I'm assuming they have a clue.

Standard MDA lines only work really well vs microstakes players and breakeven regs imo.
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