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Blind vs Blind Blind vs Blind

08-07-2010 , 07:08 PM
Hi guys, new to the forum.
This was at PokerShare NLHE $0.05/$0.10

Hero SB ($10.45)
Villain BB ($19,23)
Villain is a 19/13/1.9

Hero was dealt KQ
Hero raises to $0.40, Villain calls

Flop ($0.80): JT8

Hero raises $0.60, Villain calls

Turn ($2.00): Q

Hero raises $1.50, Villains reraises $3.50

Should I fold to this reraise, or should I jam All In?



Thanx for your comments.

Last edited by udbrky; 08-07-2010 at 08:07 PM. Reason: what tti said. please read the new user's guide
Blind vs Blind Quote
08-07-2010 , 07:20 PM
Don't post results - they discourage unbiased thinking and lead to poor advice.

You should be calling the turn. Here's the math.

Ignoring rake, there is now $7 in the pot to win, and you have to call $2 more.

So you need $2/($2+$7) or about 22% equity for a call to be immediately profitable.

Vs. his range, we'll have that because nine hearts, three aces, and three nines are expected to be outs. That is fifteen cards, and according to the 2/4 rule, your equity on the turn is approximately twice your number of outs. That's 30%, so we have the equity for a call to be immediately profitable.

There's another thing, called "implied odds" - which means you'll win even more money when you hit, but you won't lose any more than you've already invested ($2) if you miss.

We'll likely win approximately $6 more if we hit, which reduces the equity we need to call even further, here to $2/($2+$7+$6) or about 13% equity. Even if we can only get his stack half of the time, we'll get an average of $3 extra, $2/($2+$7+$3), so we'll need about 17% equity.

Another thing. You should only shove draws when calling is a clearly +EV play if you anticipate having a decent amount of fold equity.

Here at microstakes, we don't. Raises on the turn, according to the baluga theorem, are usually very strong. Since his range is strong, we won't have a lot of fold equity.

Your hand converter is also wrong. The initial committal of money is referred to as a bet, the second a raise, and only the third is called a re-raise.

Good day sir.
Blind vs Blind Quote
08-07-2010 , 07:36 PM
Thank you for your response, I didnt know about showing the results and I already did it in another post.
And yes I agree with you that in this case, facing a reraise in the turn, would be a better idea to just flat call.
Blind vs Blind Quote
08-07-2010 , 07:39 PM
you can crush that site bROOOO just do it
Blind vs Blind Quote
08-07-2010 , 07:41 PM
"Another thing. You should only shove draws when calling is a clearly +EV play if you anticipate having a decent amount of fold equity.

Here at microstakes, we don't. Raises on the turn, according to the baluga theorem, are usually very strong. Since his range is strong, we won't have a lot of fold equity."

**** yeah, i think u just plugged my leak
Blind vs Blind Quote
08-07-2010 , 08:21 PM
I think betting turn is not the smart.. We can CC with decent equity and he can turn some random hands into bluffs.. we have also decent showdown value..

Also we don't get raised from the huge draw.. And if we bet, better hand prob dont fold en worse prob dont call
Blind vs Blind Quote
08-07-2010 , 08:35 PM
Another reason I'd shove a draw is if the person will fold if the draw hits, and I won't get paid off, but I have a huge load of equity. I like shoving, because it will maximize my equity in the hand, has a chance to fold out better hands, and I will get paid off when it hits.

If opponent is a fish who will pay off when the draw hits, I don't mind reducing variance and playing it slower, because I have less fold equity and greater implied odds.
Blind vs Blind Quote

      
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