All I know is villain is playing a couple of tables no other reads.

Can I fold top 2 pair here?

Villain can certainly have QKs and 79s, also he could float with QK with one heart and somehow find a call on the turn given implied odds.

I don't believe he has a set as played with no raise on flop or turn on wet board, but possibly 44,88.
that leaves
straight
value betting ATs - (somewhat unlikely)
Or a complete bluff on busted flush draw, seems reckless with strenght I am repping!

partypoker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.50/$1.00 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

Player3 (UTG): $522.38 (522 bb)
Player4 (MP): $27.16 (27 bb)
Player5 (CO): $365.19 (365 bb)
Player6 (BU): $185.67 (186 bb)
Hero (SB): $310.04 (310 bb)
Player2 (BB): $209.82 (210 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($1.50) Hero (Hero) is SB with J♣ A♣
Player3 (UTG) raises to $2.50, 3 players fold, Hero (SB) 3-bets to $10, 1 fold, Player3 (UTG) calls $7.50

Flop: ($21) J♥ 4♠ 8♥ (2 players)
Hero (SB) bets $9.97, Player3 (UTG) calls $9.97

Turn: ($40.94) A♦ (2 players)
Hero (SB) bets $29.17, Player3 (UTG) calls $29.17

River: ($99.28) T♦ (2 players)
Hero (SB) bets $78, Player3 (UTG) raises to $473.24 (all-in), Hero (SB) folds

Total pot: $255.28 (Rake: $3)
Player3 (UTG) wins $252.28

Can’t imagine UTG is supposed to have 97s/Q9s in theory, but sure population may have it at some frequency

Can have KhQh/KsQs, maybe some AA/JJ/88/44(though 44 should probably fold pre, AA may mostly 4-bet, 88 probably raises flop often, and JJ will raise at some point occasionally). We also obviously block JJ/AA

I probably call because there’s plausible bluffs (hearts, QTs, T9s, maybe 76s/65s), and even some worse value (one combo of JTs, AhTh, Ah4h). Villain may also choose to bluff something like AhQh or QJs/KJs. If we think villain may have 97s or Q9s, there’s even more plausible bluffs/worse value (T8s, maybe other random hearts)

i like a x/r ott with top two here as we need to protect our KJ/QJ/QQ type hands that want to check often, and using a big hand that blocks his calling range is a good choice for it.

There is no way people are bluffing here 300bb eff imo

I really think we should not 3bet this from SB this deep. At most we can call imo. (yes I know we aren't supposed to call from sb but this deep is a lot different)

3bet is fine.

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Why do you think so? GL playing 310bb pot oop vs relative wide range cause he can defend almost his entire range.

Based on those reasons we shouldn't 3bet aces. Might as well just fold pre.

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I think AJs performs much better as call in this stack depth, you dont seem to have any argument for why that would be wrong.

He is representing only KhQh JJ maybe AA, but i don't expect to see any bluff raises otr 300BB deep so folding is probably fine.

anyone like river xc?

probably a lot more explo than pio-approved but vs almost all 100nl regs (and a bunch at high stakes tbh) i just lol fold AK vs hero's line here, people don't find even close to enough bluffs, imo. and villain might bet all 2p when checked to.

i think it looks like a much worse river than it is for hero's range but people still have a bunch of possible bluffs here like 9Ts, QTs, 67s, 56s, maybe a couple other fds, maybe they even take some naughty QJ or KJ.

Could be a nice play

I like this - it makes it incredibly hard for villian to bluff effectively AND we get to realize our showdown value often

flushy no come

I like it quite a bit. We are blocking some of V's check back range too which is nice.

I think it's extremely optimistic to assume villain could have worse for value here. He would have to be quite terrible to jam JT or A4 for 310BBs vs Hero's line when we can quite easily have all sets, straights and AJs ourselves. In fact, our range is weighted towards those hands when we choose this sizing on the turn and river.

imagine calling here. jfc

We can’t easily have all the sets, just JJ and AA. All we have for straight is KQs

I’m open to saying that population almost never bluffs in this spot for 300 bb. But I could totally see someone in the 25nl ignition pool raise here with jt to try to get value from AK/AQ. I’ve seen much stranger things