This is a recent hand I am having trouble analysing, any help you can offer would be great!

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - Full Ring
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $5.93 - VPIP 48% (79 hands)
Hero (MP): $2.02
MP+1: $2.31 - VPIP 54% (33 hands)


SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero has 2 2

fold, fold, Hero calls $0.02, MP+1 calls $0.02, fold, fold, fold, BB checks

Flop: ($0.07, 3 players) J A K
BB checks, Hero checks, MP+1 checks

Turn: ($0.07, 3 players) 2
BB checks, Hero bets $0.06, MP+1 calls $0.06, BB calls $0.06

River: ($0.25, 3 players) 5
BB checks, Hero bets $0.24, MP+1 raises to $1.80, fold, Hero calls $1.56


Having decided to set mine I was ready to give up the hand but hit a set after a free turn.

By the time the villain shoved I was putting him on a strong hand such as JJ,KK,AA,AK,AJ. This perceived range I am beating 66% of the time so I called.

I am quite inexperienced so I am just wondering whether I should have put him on a tighter range. If I give him more credit and remove AJ its 50/50 which I guess is too high variance to call.

Was I correct to call or should I have folded? Bad beat or bad call?

Any advice would be very appreciated. Thank you!

open raise pre is mandatory. limping oop sucks a lot
as played i am folding river. the overbet is so huge that it is nuts almost all the time imho

Don't think I'm folding here. I'd expect this to be two pair about as often as a set, villain looks fishy as hell. If it is Q10, JJ, AA or KK, oh well, I think this is just a cooler. The only one of those he should be limping is Q10. I call here and expect to be good more often than not.

I think the open limp is OK at 2NL with low pocket pairs, a lot of people will let you see the flop for cheap. I'd say pretty much low pocket pairs are the only hand open limping is likely to be OK with, and you can't get away with it at higher limits (or even at all tables at 2NL), but you're purely setmining here so you just want to see a flop as cheap as possible.

raise pre
bet/ship river

My math could be off, but I believe you need to be good 68% of the time to call here, so marginal fold. Pre-flop, fold or raise when first in. You could consider limping from LP, or if several limpers were in ahead (strictly for set-mining purposes), but limping from EP or MP when first to act is giving opportunity to aggro players in LP to puch you off the hand.

IMO, 22 is a fold preflop here. You'd have to be including 50% of all hands to be including deuces in an opening range. It's okay if there are some others already in the pot, but with so many left to act....

IIRC, blackrain recommends limping low pocket pairs from EP at 2NL in Crushing the Microstakes. So even if people disagree with it, it's certainly not a massive leak. If the table is aggro, and will raise your limps then don't do it, but from my experience at 2NL if you limp then more often than not you end up with about 4-5 other people limping into the flop, which is pretty ideal for setmining.

I haven't read his book yet, let me know if it's worth picking up. That guy certainly has the graph to demonstrate success. I'll have to look into trying out the limping; I generally fold most low pp from EP unless sitting at appropriate tables.

Regarding the "bad beat or bad call" title; I think the answer is neither. This is a marginal situation that could go either way.

It's very good for a complete beginner. If you've already read quite a bit, and you're beating microstakes at the moment, then I'm not sure how much you'd get from it.

Thanks for your help guys, appreciate it