I must be missing something here.

MDF is how much WE need to fold for THEIR bluffs to be indifferent.
Alpha is how much THEY need to fold for OUR bluffs to be profitable.

But how much we can bluff is practically the same in applicability to how often we need our bluffs to work? Like if we knew we need to bluff 44.5%, knowing that we need them to fold 55.5% is assumed by virtue of the fact we’re only calling 44.5%…
Why does it require it’s own metric, who cares? Why do we need to know the inverse of it? It does nothing for us if we already know the MDF, what’s it’s applicability SEPARATE to MDF? They’re practically the same thing in applicability right?

Unless I’m mistaken and Alpha has a separate applicability… BUT then tracking how often the opponent folds when the scenarios are so vast (in board texture and position) is impossible? It would make sense that we only calculate for MDF, because calculating for Alpha is inapplicable (unless we use Alpha to calculate MDF (MDF = 1 - Alpha)).

What the hell does Alpha do for us and how would we apply it?

Solvers don't follow these, there are outdated concepts

How often we bluff is nothing to do with alpha, on the river that frequency's the pot odds we are giving.


You have to remember the assumptions in deriving alpha/MDF:

All bluffs have 0 EV as a check. The defenders range is only bluff catchers with 0% equity against value.



In game with alpha we can estimate how +EV a pure bluff will be by how much of villain's range you expect to fold to your size. But you have to compare this to the EV of check. If villain folds less than alpha and we can't generate more EV after called, it's not a good bluff.


With MDF, if villain has enough air to bluff you you can think about MDF to not let these profit from you overfolding. The main adjustments are when your range has more air you can overfold; and when you are against bluffs with draws over-defend.

I didn't know math can get outdated.

Please show me sims where a solver follows MDF or Alpha

I’ve got it thanks.

We’re estimating how +EV a bluff is with Alpha? (You’re saying alpha tells us how much value we can expect to get?)
Alpha doesn’t tell us how much value we can expect to get, just how much of our range we can reasonably bluff with relative to risk/reward. The actual profitability of it (EV) is a separate equation.

Yes, what I meant was if they fold at exactly alpha % of the time, it's a 0 EV bluff (under same assumptions as before...), as they fold more than that it becomes more +EV. You're right it doesn't calculate the exact EV, but that's not necessary while playing.

Pretty much every river spot if know how to apply it.