Is AK a value bet? I m a little confused..

What about Villain? Can he call OTT with PP`s+FD (TT, 99, 77)? Because I don't do it... But if villain doesn't call I could expect him to fold 50% of his range? So maybe it is better for villain to call 100% of the time here.. ?

Please let me know your thoughts


1. Let's assume when we bet we expect villain to call on the Turn 100% of the time.
Upon reviewing the hand I saw that my AK has 42% vs Sets, 2pairs, Flush, Pair+FD
- If I x/fold I lose: 0 (but still..I lose all the money which are already into the pot..)
- If I bet
1. I win 42% =2,70€ ((2,39€+4,04€)*42%)
2. Ι lose 58% = 2,35€ (4,06€ * 58%)

2. Let's assume when we bet we expect villain to call on the Turn 50% of the time (call w/2pair+).
... my AK has 0% now..
- If I x/fold I lose: 0 (but still..I lose all the money which are already into the pot..)
- If I bet
1. One time I win the pot (2,39€)
2. AND the 2nd time I lose all my stack that is left behind (4,04€)...
But I will not go all in ONLY with AK here..So if my range has 25% equity with AK included then it`s break even?
- One time I win the pot (2,39€)
- AND the 2nd time
1. I win 25% =1,00€ (4,04€ * 25%)
2. Ι lose 75% = 3,00€ (4,04€ * 75%)

I apologise for writing all these numbers above. I don't know if all this calculation makes any sense or I just try to justify a wrong play.. Please share your thoughts, I thank you in advance


PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $7.28
SB: $5.00
Hero (BB): $5.19
UTG: $5.19
MP: $4.28
CO: $10.09

SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has K A

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.11, BTN calls $0.11, fold, Hero raises to $0.46, CO calls $0.35, fold

Flop: ($1.05, 2 players) 8 A J
Hero bets $0.67, CO calls $0.67

Turn: ($2.39, 2 players) 3
Hero bets $4.06 and is all-in, CO calls $4.06

River: ($10.51, 2 players) 9

Hero shows K A (One Pair, Aces)
(Pre 43%, Flop 5%, Turn 0%)
CO shows J J (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 57%, Flop 95%, Turn 100%)
CO wins $10.07

NO

It's a faulty thought process. Your actions on the previous streets also had their own EV and you have already implemented it.
You have to compare the EV of your actions on a specific street.

We expect to have more equity than our opponent in a value bet.
If you got 42% equity it's not a value bet, but this does not mean that your bet has -EV cause you also have fold equity.
When you don't have enough Equity to bet, but you can compensate it with Fold equity, it's called a Merge Bet.

So in both cases, Bet has more EV than Check/Fold, but this is not the only scenario of further events.
The opponent can check behind or you can call his bet (Check/Call) and maybe this line will have more EV than bet.
You should try to make the most profitable actions of all available on every street.


I would play a range check, or a small polar bet on this flop. The board is dynamic and we do not have an advantage.
So I don't want to build a big pot on the flop if it leads to expensive and difficult decisions on the turn and river.