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08-29-2015 , 07:39 PM
#1
brainick's Avatar
brainick
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centurion
Join Date: Jul 2015 Posts: 125
Actually I don't know if a call is true decision on the turn. I guess I had enough implied odds?

Microgaming - €0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 88 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
SB: 294.5 BB (VPIP: 18.72, PFR: 16.31, 3Bet Preflop: 3.76, Hands: 721)
Hero (BB): 108.5 BB
UTG: 135.5 BB (VPIP: 42.86, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
CO: 101 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A J

fold, fold, BTN calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 5 BB, BTN calls 4 BB

Flop: (10.5 BB, 2 players) 6 9 J
Hero bets 7 BB, BTN calls 7 BB

Turn: (24.5 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero bets 18 BB, BTN raises to 76 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 58 BB

River: (176.5 BB, 2 players) 2
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08-29-2015 , 08:03 PM
#2
GeeeMonay
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journeyman
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I would be folding to the turn raise here. Strong bets on the turn/river tend to mean a hand better than top pair and would expect to run into a set or flush 9 times out of 10 here.

Perfect perfect river card though
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08-30-2015 , 08:04 AM
#3
danny destruction
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newbie
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no need to think about implied odds, it's an all in situation so stacks are in, nothing more to win.
too many flushes and sets in villians range to make this a profitable call - you're probably a 4-1 dog getting 2-1 call
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08-30-2015 , 08:22 AM
#4
FreddyTheFish
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grinder
Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 570
X/c turn.
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08-30-2015 , 01:36 PM
#5
fernandes210's Avatar
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centurion
Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 142
x/c that turn too , and if he check behind turn and river brings a blank i thin value bet that . as played i fold that turn , no sufficient odds there
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08-30-2015 , 09:28 PM
#6
strikershank
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old hand
Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 1,457
don't x that turn. you have TPTK with a redraw to the nut flush if you're behind. this is probably a b/f spot but i'm not sure (and too lazy to run the equity calc).

Villain could shove this with KcX (J, 9), KQ for a combo,could have a set, QcJ etc. Could be on KTcc or QTcc or maybe QcTx....87cc....QcQ, KcK, TcT etc......I hate that he shoved as you can pretty much bet he has a club in his hand or a set or worst case a made flush.... not sure what your equity is vs. that range, but i suspect you're good enough here to call the shove - run the equity calc to see if you should call the shove but def bet turn.
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08-31-2015 , 11:43 PM
#7
danny destruction
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Quote:
Originally Posted by strikershank
don't x that turn. you have TPTK with a redraw to the nut flush if you're behind. this is probably a b/f spot but i'm not sure (and too lazy to run the equity calc).

Villain could shove this with KcX (J, 9), KQ for a combo,could have a set, QcJ etc. Could be on KTcc or QTcc or maybe QcTx....87cc....QcQ, KcK, TcT etc......I hate that he shoved as you can pretty much bet he has a club in his hand or a set or worst case a made flush.... not sure what your equity is vs. that range, but i suspect you're good enough here to call the shove - run the equity calc to see if you should call the shove but def bet turn.
If there is a set or a flush in the villains range then we're getting crushed
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09-01-2015 , 08:15 AM
#8
strikershank
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old hand
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^ I did include sets. By crushed you mean we should run the equity calc?

Kc[J-9], KcTc, QcTc, 8c7c,66,JJ,99,33,KcQ,KQc,Qc[J-9],QcQ,KcK,TcT: 53% equity.

We're getting 2:1 pot odds (roughly) so i don't think we're crushed here and can justify a call. Obviously you can play around with that range and tighten it up. perhaps it would look like this:

Kc[Q,J,9], KcTc, QcTc, 8c7c,66,JJ,99,33, KQc, QcT, QcQ, KcK: 51% equity. still enough to make the call good.

Kc[Q,J,9], KcTc, QcTc, Tc8c, 8c7c,5c4c,66,JJ,99,33,KcQ,KQc,QcT,QcQ,KcK, QcJ (more flushes): 53%.
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09-01-2015 , 09:43 AM
#9
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enthusiast
Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 73
I would bet/fold this

1. pot ods are 33%
2. and you have 17% to hit your flush (and 17% it the best sceanrio, because 2 outs may be already dead)

I don't see him bluffing here, so without any deeper math this is -EV call
Last edited by gulisoff; 09-01-2015 at 09:50 AM.
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09-01-2015 , 10:39 AM
#10
strikershank
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old hand
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Kc[J,9], KcTc, QcTc, Tc8c, 8c7c,5c4c,66,JJ,99,33,QcT,QTc,QcQ,KcK: 51% equity

Kc[J,9], KcTc, QcTc, Tc8c, 8c7c,5c4c,66,JJ,99,33: 53% equity

KcTc, QcTc, Tc8c, 8c7c,5c4c,66,JJ,99,33: 47% equity

this one i don't get: KcTc, QcTc, Tc8c, 8c7c,5c4c: says we have 60%
xx:cc: 62%

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
3,567,300 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 6,J,9,3
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AcJs59.06% 2,101,09611,489
KcTc, QcTc, Tc8c, 8c7c,5c4c40.94% 1,454,71511,489
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09-02-2015 , 10:55 AM
#11
strikershank
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old hand
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Figured out my simulation mistake - so here's the equity.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
220 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 6J93
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AcJs13.18% 290
KcTc, QcTc, Tc8c, 8c7c,5c4c86.82% 1910

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
660 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 6J93

Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AcJs16.52% 1090
KcTc, QcTc, Tc8c, 8c7c,5c4c,66,JJ,99,3383.48% 5510
ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
2,332 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 6J93

Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AcJs62.91% 1,4670
Kc[J-9], 66,JJ,99,33,KQ,Qc[J-9],QcQ,KcK,TcT37.09% 8650
ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,496 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 6J93

Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AcJs46.86% 7010
Kc[J,9], KcTc, QcTc, 8c7c,66,JJ,99,33,KcQ,KQc,QcT,QcQ,KcK53.14% 7950
ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
1,496 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 6J93

Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AcJs45.52% 6810
Kc[J,9], KcTc, QcTc, Tc8c, 8c7c,5c4c,66,JJ,99,33,QcT,QTc,QcQ,KcK, QcJ54.48% 8150
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09-02-2015 , 11:40 AM
#12
goodliife
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newbie
Join Date: Sep 2015 Posts: 39
Quote:
Originally Posted by gulisoff
I would bet/fold this

1. pot ods are 33%
2. and you have 17% to hit your flush (and 17% it the best sceanrio, because 2 outs may be already dead)

I don't see him bluffing here, so without any deeper math this is -EV call
not to be a smartass but isnt it 9 outs - 19.6 odds to hit ur flushdraw with just river left?
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09-02-2015 , 01:55 PM
#13
GottaJoe
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stranger
Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by goodliife
not to be a smartass but isnt it 9 outs - 19.6 odds to hit ur flushdraw with just river left?
minus the probability that villain has a club or two, which is likely
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