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AA too thin? AA too thin?
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08-05-2014 , 08:18 PM
#1
Zyngapro
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iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: €12.45 (VPIP: 36.07, PFR: 27.87, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 64)
Hero (CO): €36.24
BTN: €30.23 (VPIP: 25.75, PFR: 22.41, 3Bet Preflop: 6.36, Hands: 306)
SB: €20.00 (VPIP: 25.11, PFR: 20.78, 3Bet Preflop: 12.02, Hands: 476)
BB: €20.67 (VPIP: 29.14, PFR: 21.56, 3Bet Preflop: 5.91, Hands: 531)

SB posts SB €0.10, BB posts BB €0.20

Pre Flop: (pot: €0.30) Hero has A A

fold, Hero raises to €0.60, BTN calls €0.60, fold, fold

Flop: (€1.50, 2 players) 2 T 6
Hero bets €1.05, BTN calls €1.05

Turn: (€3.60, 2 players) T
Hero bets €2.20, BTN calls €2.20

River: (€8.00, 2 players) 9
[color=red]Hero bets €4.20

actually I have not got a clue if it's best to X/C, X/F or B/F in this spot.
X/F seems pretty tight but what hand are he betting here that I beat?
AA too thin? Quote
08-05-2014 , 09:02 PM
#2
Patje90
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I x/f here. There are not really draws he can have, so he had to flat twice to have a bluf. Which he pbb will not do on a board like this. If there were two spades or something otf x/c becomes a better option.
AA too thin? Quote
08-05-2014 , 09:17 PM
#3
SCF
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Based upon his pre flop stats over a decent sample, villain rarely cold calls preflop and probably has a ton of pocket pairs in this range and relatively few Tx, though it depends how much he likes to 3bet on the button. This run out is pretty good for him to bluff catch with a pp, so I would be inclined to b/f here.
AA too thin? Quote
08-05-2014 , 09:41 PM
#4
Patje90
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I think a bet is thin. If we give him all fh/quads with pp, ATo KTo QTs JTs and T9s we are at 32 combos. JJ, 88 and 77 might call but that are only 18 combos, so we still need to find 14 other combos. I don't see them..
AA too thin? Quote
08-06-2014 , 12:04 AM
#5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patje90
I think a bet is thin. If we give him all fh/quads with pp, ATo KTo QTs JTs and T9s we are at 32 combos. JJ, 88 and 77 might call but that are only 18 combos, so we still need to find 14 other combos. I don't see them..
KTo is a lot of combos and a guy with only a 3% gap between vpip/pfr isn't generally flatting KTo preflop to a raise. he might even 3bet some of those other hands you mentioned.
AA too thin? Quote
08-06-2014 , 12:13 AM
#6
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b/f > x/f to me at first glance. I like the sizing.
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08-06-2014 , 03:03 AM
#7
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Is there ever an argument for x/c or x/f the turn? If not, what makes betting the turn better?
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08-06-2014 , 03:37 AM
#8
Zyngapro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patje90
I think a bet is thin. If we give him all fh/quads with pp, ATo KTo QTs JTs and T9s we are at 32 combos. JJ, 88 and 77 might call but that are only 18 combos, so we still need to find 14 other combos. I don't see them..
How do you Make that calculation?
AA too thin? Quote
08-06-2014 , 09:01 AM
#9
Patje90
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I just count the combos of each individual hand. For instance KTo has 8 combos (2 T left * 4 K left is 8). 99 has 3 combos 88 has 6 combos etc...

But I see I made a small mistake AT is 4 combo's instead of 8. So total is 4 less.
AA too thin? Quote
08-06-2014 , 10:05 AM
#10
Zyngapro
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But why do we need to find 14 more? How do you now that exactly?
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08-06-2014 , 10:11 AM
#11
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x/f seems nitty but probably good...floats with bckdr flushdraws got there and Tx should be just flatting the turn.

Sent from my VS870 4G
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08-06-2014 , 10:43 AM
#12
Patje90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zyngapro
But why do we need to find 14 more? How do you now that exactly?
There need to be more worse combos than better combos. So 32-18=14

If you are ready for advanced stuff check this topic where I explain why this isn't always true: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69.../#post39617921
AA too thin? Quote
08-06-2014 , 12:22 PM
#13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patje90
There need to be more worse combos than better combos. So 32-18=14

If you are ready for advanced stuff check this topic where I explain why this isn't always true: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69.../#post39617921
Wow, great read. Thanks!
AA too thin? Quote
08-06-2014 , 04:55 PM
#14
Zyngapro
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patje90
There need to be more worse combos than better combos. So 32-18=14

If you are ready for advanced stuff check this topic where I explain why this isn't always true: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69.../#post39617921
+1!
AA too thin? Quote
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