20NL 100bb deep
vill is a multitabler reggish type, a few button/blind
spots vs him but no serious history

Hero:
A A

raise UTG 3x, V calls on button
Flop:

6 7 J
Hero bets 1$, V raises 3$, call

Turn:
5
Hero checks, V bets 5$, call

River:
7
Hero checks, V all-in

I would like to add that villain is 98% 3b JJ on button, and 66-77 with some freq. I found the river troubling
because it narrows him to flopped flushes and stone 3 barrels.. So what do you think?

Hand is a very good bluff catcher in theory; it has a great blocking effect to his strongest value A high flushes. Although AJ with A spades is probably better as we not only block flushes but full houses.

However what the pot in 25 on the river with 87.5 behind? A 3.5 x pot shove? I would be very surprised to find many 20NL players are able to find bluffs here; I think his range is going to be fair to linear.

You say he can only have flushes and bluffs? Why can't he have 66 77 or even JJ at a low frequency?

I think it's a ~ 55% pot all-in OTR. Annoying spot, I would call... There aren't that many flushes that he could have, even tho it's hard for him to have bluffs(4s4x maybe)

So many red flags

No we are 100bb deep at 20NL, We both have about half stack behind at river.
I don't see how he can have JJ, since he would prob 3bet and also 77 makes quads. That leaves 66 or 67, and


As in red flag strength? yes I agree

Hands he can potentially call preflop 77 66 55 JJ KsTs QsTs 76s Ts9s 9s8s 5s4s
Hands he bluffs on the flop... err none??
You have a pair.. its not nice to have to fold aces but its just a pair and when you are against a prob straightforward reg at 20nl who is just making money by playing his hands decently against a relatively weak field then I don't think you can assign him enough elaborate bluffs here. He never has KK or something, you beat no value so its an "easy" fold
You can't exploit players unless you allow yourself to be exploitable and that includes folding good hands when you know that opponents just won't find the bluffs

Sorry because I saw 3x preflop I just thought it was all in bb

Can you just add pot sizes for each street?

You b66 on flop right? This seems far too big

Even though I miss read hand; I still agree with everything I said, good bluff catcher will be underbluffed I'm just folding unless I highly respect villain

flop you are better off playing a range check oop in 2bp (beside sb ofcurse) to simplifie your strategy. Most boards hit the ip caller very good because off the tight calling ranges only boards where we are still doing fine are broadway boards but even there just range check the potential to make bigger mistakes is lower like this and it is very hard to play this spot on turns and rivers because your are oop vs a strong range.
In your example probably also just a very high freq check for you in theory because villain has frequently the sets 2pairs and connects in generall nice with the middeling cards.
Also on monotone boards you want to size small when you cb to not isolate yourself vs a to strong range and put weaker hand classes into a indifferent (diffiicult spot)
You affect the frequencys by wich you run into stronger hands like sets etc here so by you consistently chossing to big sizings on flop turn or river you isolate yourself vs stronger and it feels like variance is vs you but in fact you have contributed to it by choosing a wrong size and folding out hands that you should get value from.
Vs recreational the range check rule is not valid and we just play our hand.
As played easy fold after big open size preflop (decrease frequency him having KQo) and increasing frquency of him cold calling JJ. Flop big size we fold out marginal hands that need to be used as bluffs in his line.

I agree with you. However this type of villain has a very high 3b % with his pairs, esp from button. When he calls it's like some kind of junk, once in while having something like AA-KK, or something else. But he likely knows I'm a reg, and it adds a slightly different shade dynamic to the hand.
But just because you 3x doesn't mean reg won't call with junk lol



While the river is a fold. You also have to realize that alot of regs at this level are on tilt. They know something about the game, but their play
isn't exactly ironed out yet. I think it's something you have to frequently factor into your thinking.

Thank you for the analysis