Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheever
What's the '37' in your villain stats?
Considering how fishy he seems, I'd have a tough time folding, especially when effective blanks come out on turn and river. But breaking it down, we're a 3:1 favorite against straight draws and one pair hands, and 6:1 against one pair hands with an A. On the other hand, we're 3:1 dogs against two pair hands and 10:1 against sets.
There's probably 9 combos of sets and 9 combos of two-pairs in his range. There's much more one-pair/straight draws, but we don't necessarily know that he would raise the flop with these hands. Its a small sample size, but if he's been aggressive on the flop so far, I think calling down is fine, but if he's been pretty straightforward on the flop, I think we should strongly consider folding flop. Why play a big pot in a speculative situation?
37 is his Agfreq.
I don't mind calling otf, but I think calling ott was horrendous. Considering how fishy he's been playing and how small his sample size was, (other than sets) I considered it a possibility that he could be c/r otf w/ KK, QQ, Jx, Tx, random broadway overcards, and straight draws.
I wanted to see what he would do ott; if he checked it ott then I would likely have the best hand. I considered the range he would lead out with would be KK, QQ and suited broadways that picked up a FD. I don't see him leading ott with a naked pair, he would likely c/c.
Nevertheless, c/r otf and leading ott almost always indicates a set - unfortunately I was married to my AA!
At that point his c/r was 0%. But given his small sample size, does it mean anything?
Last edited by BattleGrind; 01-02-2012 at 05:49 PM.