Villain MP+1 stats: 154 hands, VPIP 27.7%, PFR:16.6%, Agg: 22.4%; unusual stacksize may indicate inexperienced player



Flop: Villains passive line indicates a draw (FD or OESD) or some decent but capped made hand such as as middle pair or TPMK. He probably hasn't air since I bet into 3 opps.

Turn: the smalldonk-call line eliminates middle pairs from the flop range except possibly A9cc, T9ss, T9hh since I'm blocking other club draws such as K9cc or T9cc. Heros preceived range should contain either TP or better or diamond FD or OESD

River: I neither like the river card nor his donk-overbet-shove. His range contain all A-high, K-high, and many lower flushes. Don't see many bluffs here except possibly A9cc or T9ss, T9hh turned into bluffs. I am blocking the other missed club draws. Don't think he turn TP into a bluff here. If he's fishy he might do this with a straight or set where it's not clear if this is for value or a bluff. In any case it feels nitty to fold the nut straight here!?

It's such a strange line from villain, which together with a broken stack gives strong fishy vibes. This could for sure be a non-flush donk value bet (set or straight) being afraid of check-back because of the perceived scary river card. The turn donk/call is really weird, maybe JJ, or AJdd/KJdd? But the latter might shove over your raise. I can't see why a pure diamond draw would suddenly donk turn after checking flop. Club draw that donks turn and bluffs river seems more likely, and there are a lot of AcXc combos, even though you block two of them. You need to be better around 35% of the time and I think you are. Call.

On another note, why did you bet flop?

I've seen fish make all kinds of random mergey play on flush rivers but my sense is there's too many reasons to think this isn't worse often enough.

Pair + draw makes sense as a donk/call hand. We want him to have our cards and they did OB. I think it's layable

I am folding. Could I ask whether you play frequently with SB or BB in this hand. I am trying to understand your reasoning for betting the flop

Folding the nut str8 against that sizing would make you very exploitable

Probably just fold. There are so many diamond draws that hit that a fish would play this way, and there's no way that this spot is going to be overbluffed. You don't really beat value.

I wouldn't bet the flop and wouldn't raise the turn either.

This can't be bad considering Hero has the turn NUTS + SUPERdraw. Why would Hero not be preparing for stacks?

oh I missed that there's a straight on board on the turn. The raise needs to be bigger then.

Thanks guys for your thoughts.

The flop bet was probably not ideal but I was last to act and had gutshot plus backdoor-FD. Regarding the river: I feel like most villains would re-raise straights or sets on the turn making a flush even more likely on the river. So unless we believe villains is capable of turning medium made hands into bluffs an (exploitative?) fold seems reasonable.

Why is this a reason for betting?

It was a semi-bluff: Ideally others fold but if not I'd still have some equity from the draws. But I guess fold equity is too low in a four-way pot so it probably wasn't profitable.

The problem with betting this flop is you would have to fold a lot of equity if you get check-raised