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50NL: Trips against unknown 50NL: Trips against unknown

03-11-2011 , 12:39 PM
Back playing after break, this may be standard all comments appreciated

Only 10 hands on villain, something like 12/12 fwiw

[converted_hand][hand_history]IPoker, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #8169082

BB: $109.58 (219.2 bb)
UTG: $50 (100 bb)
MP: $15.50 (31 bb)
Hero (CO): $52.82 (105.6 bb)
BTN: $50.75 (101.5 bb)
SB: $15 (30 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T 8
UTG raises to $1.50, MP folds, Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 5 T T (2 players)
UTG bets $2.50, Hero raises to $7.50, UTG calls $5

Turn: ($18.75) 4 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $12.50, UTG raises to $41 and is all-in, Hero ??
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-11-2011 , 12:56 PM
Def. fold, this is a flush a lot, a better T sometimes, so you should be beat almost always.
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-11-2011 , 02:58 PM
I guess the question is if he's capable of folding overpairs with a club. If he isn't then it's probably a call.
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-11-2011 , 03:08 PM
This comes down to math. He is shoving $28.5 more into the pot. There's $31.25 in the pot. So you need to be good about 1/3 of the time to make the call here. Now go to pokerstove to work out what combos of hands he can do that with, and figure out what % of hands you beat from that range.
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-11-2011 , 03:11 PM
Lol^ if only poker was that simple.
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-11-2011 , 03:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 999
Lol^ if only poker was that simple.
Poker is that simple. In essence poker is an equation solving competition, the best players are the best at assigning variables to the equation. Assigning variables is obvious the hardest part about poker.
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-11-2011 , 03:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 999
I guess the question is if he's capable of folding overpairs with a club. If he isn't then it's probably a call.
i think he's not often x/r an overpair here. he would x/c imo

i think i'd check back turn, here's a stove against a rather tight range: overpairs with a club, all AcXc, 55, JTs, KTs, ATo. is this range somewhat correct? what do you think?


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.406% 32.72% 00.69% 25208843 531918.00 { Td8d }
Hand 1: 66.594% 65.90% 00.69% 50781001 531918.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, 55, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KTs, JTs, ATo }
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-11-2011 , 03:35 PM
I think i call here. He has overpairs and K/Ac type hands on the turn a lot. Even if he turned the flush, we have outs.

I don't play 50NL, but i don't call an UTG open with T8s pre fwiw
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-11-2011 , 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bananee
i think he's not often x/r an overpair here. he would x/c imo

i think i'd check back turn, here's a stove against a rather tight range: overpairs with a club, all AcXc, 55, JTs, KTs, ATo. is this range somewhat correct? what do you think?


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.406% 32.72% 00.69% 25208843 531918.00 { Td8d }
Hand 1: 66.594% 65.90% 00.69% 50781001 531918.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, 55, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KTs, JTs, ATo }
I think that range is pretty close, you can also add in KcQc, KcJc in there for sure, and probably throw some random club suited connectors in.
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-11-2011 , 04:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bananee
i think he's not often x/r an overpair here. he would x/c imo

i think i'd check back turn, here's a stove against a rather tight range: overpairs with a club, all AcXc, 55, JTs, KTs, ATo. is this range somewhat correct? what do you think?


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.406% 32.72% 00.69% 25208843 531918.00 { Td8d }
Hand 1: 66.594% 65.90% 00.69% 50781001 531918.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcAs, KcKd, KcKh, KcKs, QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, JcJd, JcJh, JcJs, 55, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KTs, JTs, ATo }
Yeah I thought after the hand checking back turn might be better. Im not sure many worse hands continue to my turn bet when flush hits

Not sure about the range you give, obv its difficult because hes an unknown not sure he opens all suited Ax and doubt he opens KTs, he prob does open KcQc. I find it especially difficult to put him on a range that b/c flop then c/r turn. Assuming hes sane I think he rarely does this with an overpair even with a club when the fd comes in. I would also think decent fds 3bet the flop a decent amount of the time. Am I completely wrong in these thoughts
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-11-2011 , 05:20 PM
I think pf is too lose, your probably better off just mucking or 3b.

Turn sucks with the odds we're getting but I think we're almost never good; right now I say fold, in real time never folding
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-11-2011 , 05:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 999
Lol^ if only poker was that simple.
It is that simple, essentially.
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-12-2011 , 06:46 AM
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.212% 21.21% 00.00% 140 0.00 { Td8d }
Hand 1: 78.788% 78.79% 00.00% 520 0.00 { 55, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc }

this range is more realistic. Fold as played.
keep in mind - worse tens are not in villians range

on flop by raising you only get:
calls by flush draws or stubborn pocketpairs that will fold to more aggs.
raised by better hands.
fold out all the rest. (the rest is going to be a lot of your value that will often fire again on turn)

raising isn't the worst move. however you are turning you hand into obvious air/trips/fd/fh giving your villian easy to understand info so they play better against you. by calling you can keep the image that you are floating flop.

calling in position will get you more value. they will fire more thinking they are getting value or folds against your your fd/pp/5/floats. based on all this: c/c/c ip against tight players. Bet if they stop cbetting or check to indce on river.

Last edited by jdb; 03-12-2011 at 07:05 AM.
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-12-2011 , 07:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by uncle_chopchop
I think pf is too lose, your probably better off just mucking or 3b.

Turn sucks with the odds we're getting but I think we're almost never good; right now I say fold, in real time never folding
Can't 3bet because of the 30BB stack behind you, I move tables for this reason.

As for the hand I think b/f'ing the turn is fine
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-12-2011 , 07:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdb
on flop by raising you only get:
calls by flush draws or stubborn pocketpairs that will fold to more aggs.
raised by better hands.
fold out all the rest. (the rest is going to be a lot of your value that will often fire again on turn)

raising isn't the worst move. however you are turning you hand into obvious air/trips/fd/fh giving your villian easy to understand info so they play better against you. by calling you can keep the image that you are floating flop.

calling in position will get you more value. they will fire more thinking they are getting value or folds against your your fd/pp/5/floats. based on all this: c/c/c ip against tight players. Bet if they stop cbetting or check to indce on river.

I find villains like to 3bet their overpairs or better fds here when I raise on this kind of board, and people often spazz out on paired boards. Flatting is an option butIm not sure its more +EV than raising against an unknown, especially when I have no idea how often he double barrells air, weak pairs etc and also its harder to get stacks in if I dont raise flop

Anyone think turn is a check as played? Not result based thinking, just think most hands that flat flop raise have now either hit or are scared of flush
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote
03-12-2011 , 07:52 AM
I'd love to see your reasoning on how your line is +ev vs mine against villain range pf.

yes. I would check turn. You are not getting called by worse.
50NL: Trips against unknown Quote

      
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