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50nl, Squeeze AQ off BB, then face shove.  Whats Vil's range here 50nl, Squeeze AQ off BB, then face shove.  Whats Vil's range here
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50nl, Squeeze AQ off BB, then face shove. Whats Vil's range here

09-17-2009 , 12:15 AM
MP was 31/18 over 78 hands
CO is a decent 50nl regular. Almost 700 hands and plays 26/16 with a 3.8% 3bet. He does call too much behind raises, and I have never seen him 3 bet light.


Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $42.90
SB: $53.10
Hero (BB): $52.25
UTG: $32.50
MP: $144.10
CO: $68.15

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with Q A
1 fold, MP raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, CO raises to $68.15 all in, Hero ??

I put him on low to mid PP (ruled out QQ due to card reduction).

I had never seen CO be tricky with AA, KK, or AK so I didnt see any of these hands in his range

Is he simply playing back at my squeeze with this 4 bet shove and this is a snap call, or am I crushed (by what) and this is a snap fold?
09-17-2009 , 12:21 AM
Seems like a trap to me. In my own experience this is usually AA or KK, but not AK.

In my eyes, this is a pretty easy fold. But then again, I don't like to introduce too much unnecessary variance into my game. Yes, I have seen regs do this with 44-88, but I have also seen regs flat call AA KK in position against bad players (MP maybe not bad, but 31 vpip is definitely loose).
09-17-2009 , 12:27 AM
your stats, image, dynamics, how he views you etc. are extremely imp. here.
09-17-2009 , 12:33 AM
88-JJ rarely AQ.

If you have been squeezing a lot, then add AA/KK but still rare.

He almost never has AK
09-17-2009 , 12:48 AM
since you have played a lot with him, do you squeeze a lot?
09-17-2009 , 12:56 AM
I don't really care what he has, AQo is not enough to call here without the king of reads. You 3bet with the bottom of your range and got an all in called, fold.
09-17-2009 , 01:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masblas 50nl, Squeeze AQ off BB, then face shove.  Whats Vil's range here
I don't really care what he has, AQo is not enough to call here without the king of reads. You 3bet with the bottom of your range and got an all in called, fold.
well thats just silly.
09-17-2009 , 03:35 AM
fold pre and 3betting here is not always a good idea imo
09-17-2009 , 05:36 AM
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,248,269,616 games 0.087 secs 14,347,926,620 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.798% 44.94% 01.86% 560978861 23189515.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 53.202% 51.34% 01.86% 640911725 23189515.00 { TT-22, AQs-AJs, 7c5c, AhKc }


---

call
09-17-2009 , 05:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by martin9_90 50nl, Squeeze AQ off BB, then face shove.  Whats Vil's range here
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,248,269,616 games 0.087 secs 14,347,926,620 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.798% 44.94% 01.86% 560978861 23189515.00 { AQo }
Hand 1: 53.202% 51.34% 01.86% 640911725 23189515.00 { TT-22, AQs-AJs, 7c5c, AhKc }


---

call
This range makes no sense to me oO
09-17-2009 , 05:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlanDyer 50nl, Squeeze AQ off BB, then face shove.  Whats Vil's range here
fold pre and 3betting here is not always a good idea imo
-1, +1
09-17-2009 , 05:46 AM
Pretty easy call IMO.

Occasionally CO will have "tricky" monsters. But far more often you will be flipping with his range.

Martins range is pretty solid, tho I may take out 22-55 and include JJ and maybe 1 combos of QQ.

ext results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,032,519,312 games 0.070 secs 14,750,275,885 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.683% 37.78% 08.90% 390115302 91892880.50 { AQo }
Hand 1: 53.317% 44.42% 08.90% 458618249 91892880.50 { QcQs, JJ-66, AQs-AJs, Ts9s, AsKc, AQo }


Still an easy call.
09-17-2009 , 06:03 AM
fold . CO call/shove is so strong
09-17-2009 , 06:16 AM
I'm folding this, no way I'm stacking of with AQo here against a reg. With small-to-medium PPs his best play would be to flat the 3bet because:

1) he's borderline with the odds for set-digging
2) he is IP so he can win the pot by playing poker postflop without flopping a set (especially with 99/TT)

I'm also folding this cause MP opened up so, even if the Villain has 88-JJ, MP probably has something like AJ/AT/KQ, even AQ which lessens our number of outs.

The question you want to ask yourself is does he do this with ANY hand that we are ahead of (AJ)? The answer is NO. So we are either flipping or behind.

I think most of the time he has QQ/JJ/AK and sometimes AA/KK.

Oh, and your 3bet% would help too.
09-17-2009 , 07:35 AM
I did not isolate my stats against him to see if he would see me as a squeeze monkey, but overall I have a very reasonable 3 bet of 5%. In the 30 or so hands at this table I think I had 3 bet only once so far, and it was not a squeeze.

Here was my thinking. MP had fishy tendencies and I assumed CO's range would be about as wide as possible with his flat since he had position. With 1/2 the table still to play, I could not see him getting tricky with AA/KK.

As for my squeeze, I think this is a very good situation "to test the waters" early in a sesssion. At this point MP had no 3 bet fold stats, and CO was a decent 60-70% fold to 3 bet. As for it being the "bottom" of my range, I assume you mean value range and therefore I will agree, but alot of this move was for steal equity not value.

Having said that, once he shoves the hand got really interesting in my mind. Old weak-tight me would have snap folded this and cursed my luck that he had KK+. Now I admit I am not that good at hand reading yet, but when i stopped to think this reeked of a low-mid PP to me. AFter a few seconds my confidence was probably 75-90% that he had something lower then JJ.

So given the dead money in the pot v. a PP lower the JJ I estimated I needed only about 40% equity in the hand to make this EV+. Now I will agree folding is the "Safe" move but I don't think it is the right move, as I see this as a EV+ situation with a read of PP below JJ (since I am in the 45/55 range against JJ or lower).

Yes its a higher varience play, but I think a call here is very justified.
09-17-2009 , 07:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ItsMyShow 50nl, Squeeze AQ off BB, then face shove.  Whats Vil's range here
fold . CO call/shove is so strong
Really? I just dont see a semi decent reg doing this much at 50nl.
09-17-2009 , 07:43 AM
This is a pretty standard line for a mid PP, call.
09-17-2009 , 08:19 AM
Sorry but a guy who 3bets 3.8% of the time who goes all in preflop has AQ crushed almost always, it just isn't worth it. The lowest pocket pair he is likely to do that with is TT which you are behind, the lowest A is probably AK which you are crushed by. The higher part of his range complete dominates you.

I don't understand the people who are saying to call at all. You are still behind even if he is making a weird play with something like 77 which isn't very likely. Wait for a better spot to get it all in than this.
09-17-2009 , 08:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masblas 50nl, Squeeze AQ off BB, then face shove.  Whats Vil's range here
Sorry but a guy who 3bets 3.8% of the time who goes all in preflop has AQ crushed almost always, it just isn't worth it. The lowest pocket pair he is likely to do that with is TT which you are behind, the lowest A is probably AK which you are crushed by. The higher part of his range complete dominates you.

I don't understand the people who are saying to call at all. You are still behind even if he is making a weird play with something like 77 which isn't very likely. Wait for a better spot to get it all in than this.
so you would fold if you knew he had 77?
09-17-2009 , 08:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masblas 50nl, Squeeze AQ off BB, then face shove.  Whats Vil's range here
Sorry but a guy who 3bets 3.8% of the time who goes all in preflop has AQ crushed almost always, it just isn't worth it. The lowest pocket pair he is likely to do that with is TT which you are behind, the lowest A is probably AK which you are crushed by. The higher part of his range complete dominates you.

I don't understand the people who are saying to call at all. You are still behind even if he is making a weird play with something like 77 which isn't very likely. Wait for a better spot to get it all in than this.
Stop being a HUD head and look at the situation.

This is a spazzo bluff or a 66-JJ type hand almost always. It is very very rare that this is AK, QQ+.
09-17-2009 , 08:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by skraper 50nl, Squeeze AQ off BB, then face shove.  Whats Vil's range here
Stop being a HUD head and look at the situation.

This is a spazzo bluff or a 66-JJ type hand almost always. It is very very rare that this is AK, QQ+.
I completely disagree with you here. Even if his range is 66-JJ you are behind with AQo 55.3%-44.6%. So you are making this call hoping he has the lowest part of his range which you are still significantly behind.

Still makes absolutely no sense to me.
09-17-2009 , 08:34 AM
66-JJ is not the lowest part of his range. He will have some spaz shoves, like 56s etc. And some hand we dominate like AJ/KQ.
09-17-2009 , 08:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masblas 50nl, Squeeze AQ off BB, then face shove.  Whats Vil's range here
I completely disagree with you here. Even if his range is 66-JJ you are behind with AQo 55.3%-44.6%. So you are making this call hoping he has the lowest part of his range which you are still significantly behind.

Still makes absolutely no sense to me.
You would be behind but because of the money in the pot it would still be a +EV call.
09-17-2009 , 08:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Masblas 50nl, Squeeze AQ off BB, then face shove.  Whats Vil's range here
I completely disagree with you here. Even if his range is 66-JJ you are behind with AQo 55.3%-44.6%. So you are making this call hoping he has the lowest part of his range which you are still significantly behind.

Still makes absolutely no sense to me.
You are completely ignoring the dead money already in the pot.

To call this I need just over 40% equity. So if I have 45% it is a no brainer call.

As for your initial assessment that this is the top of his range, I totally disagree as he does not play the top of his range this way ever. I would never give this guy credit for a tricky flat of AA/KK/AK followed by a shove.

If he is getting tricky I would expect a small min raise type 4 bet, not a shove. As it is I am totally comfortable ruling out KK+ AK in this situation.
09-17-2009 , 08:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drew Lingidiot 50nl, Squeeze AQ off BB, then face shove.  Whats Vil's range here
You are completely ignoring the dead money already in the pot.

To call this I need just over 40% equity. So if I have 45% it is a no brainer call.

As for your initial assessment that this is the top of his range, I totally disagree as he does not play the top of his range this way ever. I would never give this guy credit for a tricky flat of AA/KK/AK followed by a shove.

If he is getting tricky I would expect a small min raise type 4 bet, not a shove. As it is I am totally comfortable ruling out KK+ AK in this situation.

Ok there is the problem, I misread the action. I thought it was the original raiser who went all in and not the flat caller. That makes a lot more sense then.

      
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