50nl: OESD + pair on turn - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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50nl: OESD + pair on turn

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01-11-2010 , 08:07 PM

DBallerz

adept

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 725

Villain is 14/14/1 over only 7 hands
Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (CO): $50.00
BTN: $50.00
SB: $54.60
BB: $38.10
UTG: $50.00
MP: $61.60

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with J

UTG raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.75) K

(2 players)
UTG bets $2, Hero raises to $7, UTG calls $5

Turn: ($16.75) J

(2 players)
UTG bets $11.50, [color=red]Hero ??

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01-11-2010 , 08:46 PM

Lenny-T

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,864

I probably shove. We just have so so much equity.

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01-11-2010 , 08:50 PM

Simonlal

adept

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 1,083

I would probably start off with counting outs, get confused, realize we probably have 12-15 outs and shove. Pokerstove really is your friend here.

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01-11-2010 , 08:51 PM

lumileijona

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 8,020

For shoving to be better than calling, the villain must be able to fold AK AA etc.
I think the board is so scary that many regs would be able to do that but...
If he can't fold better than Jx then we accomplish nothing by raising.

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01-11-2010 , 08:51 PM

DoctorFarha

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,596

shove

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01-11-2010 , 08:59 PM

Lenny-T

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,864

Quote:

Originally Posted by lumileijona

If we get called 100% we need to win just 42/100=42%.

If villain even folds like just 20% of his range here, this would be a +EV shove (IE, against sets and AA only). I think we can get called by worse than that, and we should have more than 20% FE here. I love shoving here.

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01-11-2010 , 09:01 PM

halp_mee

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 90

we having one of those missing J's it's that much harder for villain to have a set there. AQ could be there. would he be betting gutshot tho? QQ+ TT, 77, AK, AJ, KJ.. something more? KQ perhaps. Think my range is thereabouts?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

74,250 games 0.004 secs 18,562,500 games/sec

Board: Kc Td 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.934% 49.53% 00.40% 36779 297.00 { QdJd }
Hand 1: 50.066% 49.67% 00.40% 36877 297.00 { TT+, 77, AJs+, KJs+, AJo+, KJo+ }

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01-11-2010 , 09:03 PM

lumileijona

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 8,020

Yeah I love it too and it is +EV I'm sure. But if he isn't folding TP type hands and not calling with worse then calling is more +EV. We have SD value and unless better than that folds then shoving serves no purpose because worse isn't calling.

But with taggy stats I think there is big enough chance that he folds better.

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